Another round of making some picks on the Premier League. As always, I don’t make any claim to be good at this (I have never done this at this scale), I don’t recommend following my picks, and this is not a tip service but want to test my ability to try read and analyze the matches.
These are my picks for this weekend:
Crystal Palace - Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Ipswitch (+0.5) -West Ham vs Ipswitch
Nottingham Forest - Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa - Aston Villa vs Manchester Utd
This was a tough weekend, with a lot of matchups that I am not perfectly comfortable with and ones I am watching the lines to see if they move in a way I would like.
Last weekend went 1/4, overall 52% up 5.8 units
Newcastle Utd - Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City
This felt like a potential tough beat. I thought Newcastle should have had a second penalty not long after they got the first one but regardless had the chances in the second half to win. Manchester City look fragile still and I would probably stay away from betting on them for a while. Right now City are having trouble creating clear scoring chances against set defenses.
Brighton - Chelsea vs Brighton
Brighton’s defense was atrocious in this match and then they got got by Cole Palmer having a heater. The scoreline is probably flattering to how Chelsea played because much of this was Brighton gifting chances. I am generally in the I don’t really know what to do with either of these teams phase.
Liverpool (-1.5) - Wolves vs Liverpool
Liverpool looked off the pace. They won but they looked far from dominating and I was very disappointed in how they sort of went conservative when the restored the lead. It more than anything changes how I view Liverpool than I how I view Wolves, I don’t think that is what Klopp would have done. A disappointing beat there.
Tottenham - Manchester Utd vs Tottenham
I didn’t expect the red card and it was a joke of a call but this was kind of like I expected. Tottenham were a bad matchup on paper for United and it turned out exactly like that. Tottenham added on after the red card but even before it looked like the better team.
Picks for this weekend explained
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
This is an uncomfortable but plus EV bet and I am going to put some trust in the cold calculating model here. Crystal Palace have looked weird and have probably been the victim of sequencing, before last weekend where they blew a lead they had not lead all season. Overall, their numbers aren’t great but they aren’t atrocious either.
I do hope here that Palace can frustrate Liverpool and do just enough to nick something, there is also the bonus that Liverpool are coming off playing in the Champions League (home but with basically no rotation) and this is an early match so they will have a rest disadvantage.
Pick: 0.4 Unit on Crystal Palace at 6.25
West Ham vs Ipswitch
My model says a draw here is actually the plus EV bet but so is taking Ipswitch and half a goal so I can get both a draw and win here. West Ham have not played well and have thus far not been much better than Ipswitch. I would expect that West Ham SHOULD have more talent but they have so far not really played like it, with a new coach and a bunch of changes from how they played under Moyes it could just turn out failing.
Pick: 1 Unit on Ipswitch (+0.5) at 2.05
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
I am a little Nottingham Forest pilled this season. Nuno is one of the last classic coaches for the level of this team and has them playing a very tough to beat style with threat to break against you. Chelsea’s defense can still be beaten and I think there is a chance that Forest can exploit that.
Not a big bet but one I feel comfortable taking at these odds.
Pick: 0.4 Unit on Nottingham Forest at 6.25
Aston Villa vs Manchester Utd
I locked this in basically right after full time last weekend, the line at 2.3 was too good to pass up and I didn’t need my model to tell me that was looking like a plus EV pick. The line has moved further towards Aston Villa so I am glad I pulled the trigger on it.
I like the matchup here a lot. Aston Villa at home are very tough, Manchester United against teams that can run through the middle struggle and I think there is a chance that we can see Villa create a number of openings for their forwards. Manchester United will also have a day less of rest after going to Porto in the Europa League.
The worry right now is that Amadou Onana picked up a niggle in their Champions League match and might be a doubt. They also have Leon Bailey and Jacob Ramsey as doubts. These are not things I like but not things that make me want to change my bet.
Pick: 1 Unit on Aston Villa at 2.3