Bournemouth Away: MATCH PREVIEW
Arsenal travel to the Vitality Stadium as the international break comes to an end
The Premier League resumes following the October international break, featuring Arsenal in Saturday's late kickoff. Although the standings show a match-up between 13th and 3rd, Bournemouth is expected to be a formidable opponent for Arsenal that they cannot look past.
Bournemouth Performance
Bournemouth have turned themselves into a challenging match, improving significantly over the course of last season and continuing that into this year.
They rank pretty solidly midtable in the metrics so far this season, 6th in xG difference and 13th in goal difference. Neither the attack nor the defense looks particularly strong right now, with the team finding itself basically smack dab as average.
So far this season they have played a schedule that is a bit easier than average but not overly skewed. They have played three of the 3 of the top 7 teams, coming away with 1 point (but two performances that perhaps could have earned more on another day).
Bournemouth Form
Bournemouth have 2 wins in their last 5 but have played fairly well over that stretch, where maybe they should have hoped to come away with more than just 6 points (8.8 expected).
They won the xG battle in 4 of the 5 matches over this span, losing 2 of the matches where they created the better share of chances overall.
They might have gotten a bit fortunate against Everton, where their late flurry propelled them from down 2, to a win in the final minutes but that is the exception for them overall. They came out strong against Chelsea but a missed penalty seemed to seal their fate, against Leicester last time out, they gave up an early goal and even with the chances that they created failed to find an equalizer.
Style Comparison
Bournemouth’s style this season has been pretty unique.
They are pretty happy to have the ball and play very quick and directly. So far this season they are the second most direct team in the Premier League, behind only Nottingham Forest, moving the ball up the field and doing so with as few of passes as possible.
What makes them unique is that teams that typically play this way, are sit deep and counter, while Bournemouth play with a high line and high press.
This has led to them creating solid attacking numbers.
They are generating lots of shots, the most shots from direct attacks and solid numbers of balls getting into dangerous locations.
Defensively they aren’t quite as strong at keeping their opponents from doing the same to them, but have so far seemed to succeed at turning games into high event contests.
Keys to the game
If I were looking at what Arsenal need to do in this match to tilt it in their favor I would focus on these items
SLOW THE GAME DOWN. Bournemouth have been at their best when they can turn a game into a basket ball game, Arsenal can beat them if it turns into that, but a slower more deliberate game favors Arsenal. When Bournemouth get the ball it will be important for Arsenal to recover back into their shape well and be ready for the direct attacks they will launch.
WIN THE DUELS. This goes hand in hand with the top one, Arsenal need to focus on taking care of the ball, Bournemouth want to win it to spring attacks, Arsenal will need to make it hard on Bournemouth by minimizing the easy turnovers and make them work back in their shape.
CONTROL TERRITORY. Continuing the theme, if Arsenal can pin Bournemouth back both with their own possession and their own press, this should lead to good things for Arsenal. If Arsenal have the ball there, it should mean that they have accomplished goals 1 and 2 and will have a chance to cut through their defense.
Both my model and the betting odds favor Arsenal in this match, and I am quite confident that, even away from home, Arsenal should secure a win if they perform to their expected level.
I predict that Arsenal will aim for a tight game, possibly with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory to achieve the desired scoreline.
Coming out of an international break can be tricky, but hopefully, the team will maintain the form they've shown in recent matches when they've managed to play the entire game at even strength.