Arsenal have set a new record for the most expensive over 28 year old midfielder, completing the signing of Bruno Guimarães from Newcastle.
It has been a long road to get to this point. It is not just the pursuit this summer, but this comes after he was targeted multiple times in the past. It took a while but Arsenal finally got their man.
He’s got some history with Arsenal but if he comes in and plays at a high level most fans will be able to chalk that off and move forward. He’s been one of the most productive and best midfielders in the Premier League so the odds are good that he will be able to get the gooners on his side.
Lets take a tour of what his numbers say we are getting in the player.
Bruno Guimarães: The Debrief
One of the hallmarks of Guimarães is that he has been one of the best all around midfielders in the world. He was doing this in France and has continued in England. He has played in multiple roles for Newcastle, and that is one of the most exciting prospects about him at Arsenal.
He can partner with or cover for each of the existing midfielders and this should give Arsenal both the most depth and the highest overall ceiling for midfield of any team in the Premier League this coming season.
The stats below are for his Premier League production last season and are normalized to per 90 minutes, they are compared against other midfielders with at least 900 minutes played in the top five leagues going back to the 2011-12 season.
Passing, Ball Progression, and Carrying Metrics
55.9 - Pass attempts, percentile: 70.3
100% - Pass efficiency (the ratio of actual pass completion compared to expected pass completion, 100 is completed as many passes as expected and higher is better), percentile: 72.2
5.81 - Final third entry passes completed, percentile: 75.6
26.2 - Forward passes attempted, percentile 73.5
4.97 - Progressive passes completed, percentile: 90.6
201.1 - Progressive pass distance in yards towards goal, percentile: 69.0
4.17 - Long passes completed, percentile: 69.0
59.0% - Long pass completion percentage, percentile: 42.9
0.07 - Goal probability added through passing (a measure of how each action changes a teams chances of scoring/conceding), percentile: 87.4
When we talk about Guimarães passing his best trait is that he wants to get that ball up the field.
I have been playing around with a new graphic that looks at a player’s per touch production compared to the average player. This allows me to pull out their tendencies and overall production while controlling for volume and locations. With this you can say that if an average player got those same touches in the same locations they would have produced roughly this and give you a nice baseline to compare against.
If we do this and look at progressive passes, you can see that he really pops.
One of the main worries last season was the attack, and there is doubt about the quality of the attackers that Arsenal have, but I think an under discussed issue is that for many games Arsenal struggled to set up their attackers in good positions, lacking incisive and progressive passing from deeper. Guimarães should be able to inject an elite amount of ball progression into the midfield.
4.10 - Progressive carries completed, percentile: 84.7
1.89 - Carries into the final third, percentile: 80.8
0.29 - Carries into the penalty area, percentile: 79.3
0.65 - Successful dribbles completed, percentile: 48.4
2.72 - Fouls suffered, percentile: 97.7
3.41 - Tackle attempts (not a dibble attempt) rode, 99.9
1.67 - Times dispossessed on the ball, percentile: 10.3
31.6% - Dribble completion percentage, percentile: 6.7
One of the other main themes that pops out in this section is that he is a risk taker. That will more often come off and pay off with his passing but he also will take more risk one-on-one with a defender. He is happy to go into an attacking duel and he does often produce a positive outcomes but the trade off is that he will lose the ball more often than other midfielders because of the volume of these battles.
Ball Winning Metrics
8.97 - Possession adjusted (Padj) defensive duels contested, percentile: 75.0
2.65 - Padj tackles won, percentile: 67.9
0.94 - Padj dribbled past, percentile: 67.4
1.92 - Padj fouls committed, percentile: 23.7
42.8% - Tackle won percent, percentile: 33.9
0.64 - Padj interceptions, percentile: 8.2
1.07 - Padj blocked passes, percentile: 59.7
5.77 - Padj ball recoveries, percentile: 42.6
1.5 - Padj second balls won, percentile: 10.4
When he was in his early 20’s in France he was able to cover a bit more ground and put up better ball winning stats. As he has aged the numbers has gone from good to more acceptable.
This isn’t a concern but it is an accepting of the reality that he was never the elite athletic ground covering player and that hasn’t changed as he as moved into his later 20’s. If you leave him in big open spaces he will get exposed (as all but the outlier freaks like Rice would) and you have be willing to take that trade off if you were to put him in those situations.
Attacking and Creative Metrics
0.25 - Non-penalty goals scored, percentile: 96.5
0.17 - Non-penalty expected goals, percentile: 92.8
0.12 - Expected goals per shot, percentile: 90.6
54.8% - On target percentage, percentile: 98.0
0.10 - Post shot xG added, percentile: 97.6
0.98 - Open play shots, percentile: 72.0
0.54 - Set play shots, percentile: 86.2
Guimarães isn’t really a massive goal scoring midfielder but he does have a knack for arriving in the box well. He has scored at least 5 goals in the Premier League in the last three seasons and is good for about one open play shot per match.
Overall, he seems to be a solid enough finisher and he picks his spots well, choosing to shoot from good opportunities and not just at any tiny opening.
0.18 - Assists, percentile: 88.3
0.28 - Shot assisted xA (the value of the xG on the shots assisted), percentile: 95.1
1.60 - Key passes, percentile: 86.9
3.81 - Shot creating actions (the last two actions that led to a shot), percentile: 91.1
0.57 - Shot creating action xG assisted, percentile: 97.6
1.67 - Passes completed into the “Shot Zone”, percentile: 90.2
5.66 - Buildup actions to shots, percentile: 83.2
0.87 - xG buildup, percentile: 91.9
50.0% - Total buildup involvement to the team’s xG while on the field, percentile: 88.4
His creative numbers are solid for a midfielder. You wouldn’t mistake him for a “10” but his propensity for trying to play a killer ball doesn’t go away when he is in the final third. He has consistently moved the ball into dangerous locations, setting up his teammates.
Final thoughts
It is hard to find a perfect signing for Arsenal and I don’t think that Guimarães is that. Arsenal have probably paid more than they would have liked on this deal, his age opens up a bit more risk on a potential decline for the later part of his contract, and it really concentrates Arsenal’s midfield in the older side of peak age for midfielders.
Just because he isn’t perfect, doesn’t mean that he doesn’t help make Arsenal better because it does. I don’t think that there was a deal out there for a midfielder that didn’t come with it’s own potential downsides and this transfer is the one that has the highest probability of making Arsenal the strongest for the next few seasons.
Putting him up against the incumbent midfielders at Arsenal you can see that he matches up well and offers depth and quality to this midfield.
Arsenal’s midfield was good last year but injuries and lack of rotation choices often made it looks like Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi were gutting out matches and playing at a level that wasn’t always their best.
Strengthening this group with a plug and play, Premier League experienced player should mean that now that isn’t nearly as much of a concern. On paper the group of midfielders at Arsenal stacks up with any team in the world on quality and depth. I am excited to see how he can impact this team.
Arsenal got a taste of winning last season and the addition of Guimarães signals that they don’t want to stop and want to win as much as they can right now. Let’s go win some more silverware baby.
Welcome Bruno.
I’m interested in the divergence between you and Billy (Carpenter) on this one. I get the squad building questions but if we’re trying to win the league (and other things hopefully!) again this year I really can’t see that there’s a better fit out there. The competition is a mess and I feel that our chances are really strong, even with the squad as it is simply because the injury situation will (optimistically) revert. Surely that would give significant leeway for the rebuild over the following 1-3 seasons? Particularly is we also sign Williams who must surely be the backup given (1) the buyout and (2) the fact that he’s never going to get a chance to win stuff at a more basque club. Final thought, the under 24 market is overpriced at the moment and that’s going to start hurting people soon where it doesn’t work out and young players increasingly take a Felix view of things and just settle for the huge money and long contract, that’s a real risk. Let’s get behind a signing that gives us a great chance of playing in May like we were in October last year!
This will undoubtedly be the year of Fitness! No significant injuries. No multi month absences.
We'll have Merino, MLS, Zubi, Ode and Guimaraes clamoring for minutes next to Rice. Oh and we'll sell Nwaneri ManUtd. Carrick will start turning him into one of the best attacking MF'ers in Europe.
But by losing in the EFL cup will lose his job before Christmas. Utd will of course do great business and buy out Poch's contract. Wow! When is the new season?