Bukayo Saka: Impactful Goals

Going through what each goal Saka has scored means to Arsenal.

Bukayo Saka has scored 10 goals for Arsenal, the second most on the team, and tied for 7th in the Premier League. These rankings underrate his impact to the team with his goals.

Each one of Saka’s goals have come with Arsenal tied (meaning he put them in the lead) or with Arsenal down a goal (meaning he scored the equalizer). EVERY SINGLE ONE of his goals has been very big this season, with none coming in a low-leverage situation.

To help put this into perspective I have broken out my in-game win probability calculator and looked to calculate how much each of the goals moved the needle for Arsenal. For this I am looking at the win probability before the goal and after the goal (using pre match odds from my simulation model, so it will count goals in harder matches higher), and how that change translates into the winning percentage change and into expected points added. This isn’t a ‘Wins Above Replacement’ type statistic because it is only looking at goals and no other actions but it is trying to put some value on the goals that are scored.

His first goal came against Manchester United with Arsenal losing:

Before the goal Arsenal were expecting just 0.55 points from a 10.4% win expectation and 23.8% draw expectation. This equalizer (even if ultimately futile) was worth 0.87 expected points and moved Arsenal’s win expectation up 24%.

His next goals came in the barn burner of a match against Liverpool:

His first goal comes with the match tied as he finishes a great flowing move. Arsenal were a pretty good position with a 36.1% win expectation and 33.6% draw expectation but this boosted it 0.88 expected points and 34% for a win.

His second goal was the eventual winner, before this penalty Arsenal were 26.6% to win and 50.4% to draw. This goal was worth 1.2 points putting Arsenal in a great position to go on to win adding 50% to those odds.

His 4th goal was another that would be a winner:

This finish is feeling like it is becoming a bit of a signature for Saka, near post from a tight angle, into the roof of the net. Anyway this was a match where Arsenal were expected to do well (46.1% win, 29.7% draw) so it is a bit lower on the impact giving Arsenal 0.76 points and boosting Arsenal’s winning percentage by 30% points. They would need it because Leeds were very strong in that second half.

His next goal comes after a very good World Cup run and equalizes against West Ham.

The pass/shot from Martin Odegaard should be noted here, and then a very cool finish one on one. This goal was worth 0.9 points and boosted Arsenal’s odds of winning 26% points.

Saka’s next goal came against Brighton where he put Arsenal up in the first 65 seconds.

Because this goal came so early it doesn’t have a massive impact but still added 0.68 points to what Arsenal expected to get from this match and added 25% points to Arseanl’s chances of winning.

Next, we have his goal that put Arsenal ahead against Manchester United for the first time.

This was a beauty of a goal and one of the better-placed shots you will see from that distance. This goal has had the second biggest impact for Arsenal this season (behind the Liverpool penalty) adding 0.92 points to what Arsenal expected and moving Arsenal’s winning expectation up 36% points. HUGE.

His next goal comes against another team from Manchester and at the time felt massive, even if in hindsight it didn’t have the same value given the result.

Before this penalty Arsenal were in a pretty dire spot with just 0.53 expected points from a 10.9% winning expectation, this penalty was worth 0.72 in the swing adding 20% to Arsenal’s chances of winning.

His next goal was the first equalizer that Arsenal scored against Aston Villa.

Arsenal went behind early in this match so this goal really helped to make sure things didn’t get too far out of hand. Going into this goal, Arsenal were looking at just 1.02 expected point and the title hopes slipping away.

This goal (again very well finished, his technical skill to make a good connections on these goals has gotten so good) added 0.76 expected points and really boosted the chances of winning quite a bit in a close to must-win match, up 25% points.

The last goal… for now, is his opener against Everton.

This goal felt pretty monumental when it went in. We all I think had the scars from the last time Arsenal had gone up against Everton and got slapped and stuffed with their 2 on 1’s and physical play. Arsenal had been pretty sterlie up to this point and Arsenal’s spark plug gave them a breath of fresh air.

This goal was worth 0.77 expected points and added 31% points to Arsenal’s chances of winning. In my mental model this goal basically broke Everton and ensured that Arsenal would come away with all three points.

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Where Saka’s Impact Ranks

Having gone through each goal, the next question is where does this rank among Arsenal players and among other Premier League players.

Among Arsenal players, Saka leads the way and does so by a pretty considerable margin. That is especially impressive considering that he doesn’t have a massive lead in goals scored. If Jorginho’s ‘goal’ had actually been a goal that is one that would have pushed him way up the list but it is still probably better and more funny that it was an own goal.

Looking at the Premier League as a whole looks like this.

Erling Haaland leads the way but the gap in the value of his goals and the volume of his goals is pretty big. He has scored 8 goals that put Manchester City in the lead and two that equalized, with 6 goals coming with City already 2 or more goals up. Harry Kane’s goals have ben very big for Tottenham and if here were not around they would probably be significantly down the table.

Ivan Toney looks set for a lengthy ban and losing the impact his goals have added will be a pretty big blow for Brentford.

Marcus Rashford’s hot run of goals has obviously been really important for Manchester United’s improvement in form and it will be interesting to see how long that continues.

Aleksandar Mitrović has been the driving force of Fulham’s unlikely run up the table.

Then we get to Arsenal’s Saka. His points added per goal is second among players in the top 10 and has been better than the players that have scored a higher volume of goals than him.

For pure impact, Bukayo Saka is hard to beat.