As always, a great read. Has this uptick in scoring (and consequent increase in GD) had a significant impact on chances of winning league based on your projections?
I think I’d still have Arsenal 3rd. My gut feeling right now is still City 40%, Liverpool 30%, Arsenal 30%. It’s all very close. I have a sneaking suspicion my model might put Arsenal number 1 but I think it doesn’t know how inevitable City feels.
As always, a great read. Has this uptick in scoring (and consequent increase in GD) had a significant impact on chances of winning league based on your projections?
The increase in goal difference is worth like half a point. If it is close it can be something that makes a difference
Weirdly that huge Odegaard outlier looks like the West Ham home game, unless I’ve counted out wrong. Hated him that game, too many touches 🧐.
Ok then Scotty Boy, if you took the ‘names’ off the 3 horses, ie removing all emotion, who would predict to win the league based on these metrics ???
I feel, the reason we didn’t win the league last year was that we ‘lost control’ of games, in Particular West Ham, Liverpool & Saints.
I think I’d still have Arsenal 3rd. My gut feeling right now is still City 40%, Liverpool 30%, Arsenal 30%. It’s all very close. I have a sneaking suspicion my model might put Arsenal number 1 but I think it doesn’t know how inevitable City feels.