Can Arsenal follow the Liverpool path to title contention
Taking a look at where Arsenal are compared to Liverpool when they started challenging Manchester City at the top of the table.
One of the ideas about Arsenal’s rebuild is trying to follow the Liverpool model to move into contention.
It can’t be a perfect replication because nothing can be but I do think it is interesting to look at Liverpool in 2017-18 and then 2018-19 where they took the leap from a good team to a team that challenged Manchester City for the title.
2017-18 Liverpool vs 2021-22 Arsenal
The Arsenal team of last season was significantly younger, especially in attack but I think generally looks similar as a team that is coming into their general peak years (maybe Arsenal still look an extra year away here).
The 2017-19 Liverpool team was good, and I do think it was better than 2021-22 Arsenal but maybe there was some similarities of a team on the rise.
To a certain extent, I think the 2017-18 Liverpool team was underrated. They are probably the best team to finish just 4th place in a long time. They were an attacking force with the front three that would help them win everything together for first time and firing. Arsenal for the full season were no where close to that level but did show flashes of that when they were at their best.
The heavy metal press for Liverpool was also really kicking in, they were excellent at shot suppression, even if it meant that they conceded a bit extra on overall shot quality.
2018-19 Liverpool vs 2022-23 Arsenal
For 2018-19 had a full season of Virgil van Dijk and Alisson in defense and added Fabinho and Naby Keita to midfield. Overall looking back it is pretty amazing just how perfect the peak ages lined up for this team, with none of the starters really outside of their peak years and really only Tent Alexander-Arnold as an “up and coming” type player.
This Arsenal team did similar sorts of strengthening to that Liverpool team, adding Gabriel Jesus, Oleksandr Zinchenko to the starting lineup and adding Fabio Vieira for attacking depth. This Arsenal team still feels just short of having the peak age of the main player’s lineup quite as perfectly as Liverpool but maybe that just means that Arsenal might still be a touch early for with their window.
The stats for Arsenal and Liverpool in attack are actually surprisingly similar.
Liverpool were able to do a bit more on the break, with Arsenal being a bit more of a safe possession team but generally using that to get similar results thus far.
The defense is a similar story. This Arsenal team actually rates as a more “pressy” team and is more active at actually winning the ball back. Overall the results are roughly the same when it leads to shot suppression and giving up chances.
Overall the comparison seems apt and points in a very good direction for Arsenal.
On another positive, below is all teams have had exactly 31 points after 12 matches, and how they did over the rest of the season.
Three of these teams went on to win the title with two of them going on to surpass 89 points (one came in the 42-match season but was on an 83 win pace). My projection still has Arsenal below that but a couple more wins with performance to match and that becomes more and more of a real possibility.
Premier League Week 15
No early Saturday kickoff in the Premier League so I get to sleep in or watch a different league. I even have an extra hour where the 7 am kickoffs are actually 8 am kickoffs due to the difference in Day Light Savings time.
Of those matches the one that sticks out as most interesting to me is Leeds vs Bournemouth.
I feel like I sort of have a duty to watch the fighting Jesse Marsch’s, plus it might be worth seeing a bit more of Bournemouth who before their capitulation last weekend were on the most in-form teams.
The late Saturday match is not all the exciting but it is very even on paper.
Sunday starts very early but at least the first morning of the end daylight savings time will soften the blow.
Hopefully, Arsenal are up for it.
This is a matchup between the 2nd vs 6th rated team in my model, in years past that would have meant Chelsea were the team flying high but this year it is Arsenal.
Chelsea have taken quite a tumble in my team ratings since the start of the season, they started the season tied with Tottenham for third best but the results and performances have been pretty dreadful.
Overall they look like an expensive mismatching of parts. They have talented players but there doesn’t seem to be much cohesion into how they were brought together. The midfield looks well past it without N’Golo Kante there to paper over things, and the experiment of putting true wingers as wing-backs has failed.
I worry every time Arsenal go up against Chelsea (they are my most hated team) but this really looks like the situation where they are at a very low point.
Sunday ends with a match that could have pretty big top-four ramifications.
The loss last weekend put Liverpool 8 points behind Newcastle in 4th (extra match played) and 7 points behind Manchester United 5th. Those aren’t overwhelming gaps by any means but another round of dropped points could move them from their one in three to significantly lower.