It has only been a few short weeks since we last updated this but I feel like that has been a real eye opening amount of time. We have now seen about a quarter of the season played and the stats are really starting to be able to tell us things about the current state of the teams.
7. Manchester United
↘️ Previously 4th
There is no way that this team should be this bad but here we are and they truly do look this bad.
They are in 17th place which might be a touch harsh but not that harsh for a team that has 16th ranked goal difference, the 11th ranked xG difference and the 13th rated weighted xG difference.
The aggregate xG numbers are kind of lying here, they have 1 really good performance and bunch of meh to terrible ones here and the trend is going in the wrong direction.
When I wrote this last month I was kind of optimistic that they would turn it around, I fully expected that the dream of a title challenge looked foolish and the people that bought into that were delusional but this was still a solidly good team. That might still be true but they look like they have totally turned on the manager, they are not all pulling in the same direction, and they are collectively worse than the sum of their individual talents.
It looks like a totally untenable and toxic situation, the only reason that they haven’t fired Michael Carrick yet seems to be that they have no idea who they want to replace him with (great process) and that it will cost money they don’t want to spend.
The team did defy my expectations pulling out a come from behind victory against Roma but I would still be worried about the trend. Pulling out of this spiral doesn’t have a ton of historical precedence.
6. Tottenham
↗️ Previously 7th
This is the flip side of the Manchester United spiral and Spurs look like they are on an upswing. The season started poorly for them but it never quite got to the point where it looked like the team had lost faith or had given up on Roberto De Zerbi and since then they have won 10 points in October and climbed up to a respectable spot on the table.
I would still temper the expectations a bit here because they have been aided by some red cards but from the previous baseline where they looked like a basket case and it might all fall apart the improvement is clear.
It is a low bar but they have cleared it.
They aren’t a spectacular team but they look competent on both sides of the ball right now.
5. Chelsea
➡️ previously 5th
