Champions League Quarterfinals Odds

Atalanta vs Paris Saint Germain

It is really hard to say what to expect from PSG in their match tomorrow because Ligue 1 never came back from lock down. I think that my odds might be over stating things for PSG, Pinnacle has the implied odds at 50.7% at the end of regulation and around 67% overall, while I am at 54% and 68% overall.

I think that this will be a fun match to watch because both teams will really want to attack.

RB Leipzig vs Atlético Madrid

This is easily the closest of the Quarterfinals match ups. I think that it is also the hardest to call because Atleti are so damn hard to gauge statistically.

Leipzig are a good team, and I think that they are better than Atleti but Atleti are so hard to play in knock out tournaments, and especially in a one off it is really hard to right them off.

Overall I have the tie at 52.4% to Leipzig and I think that feels about right. This could be a really cagy (and maybe boring) to match to watch.

Bayern Munich vs Barcelona

Bayern are right up there with Manchester City as the favorites in this mini tournement for me. They finished the Bundesliga strong and then they looked absolutley clinical dispatching Chelsea.

Barcelona are a hot mess but they have the best player in the world.

Those two things make this a compelling match up and I think that my odds do a good job capturing that Bayern are the favorites (63%) but not so overwheliming that Messi has no chance to carry this Barcelona team.

Manchester City vs Lyon

I think that my odds are significantly under counting how much better Manchester City is than Lyon.

Pinnacle has this one at 88%, FiveThirtyEight has it at 89%, while I only give City a 78% chance of winning overall. I am not sure exactly what my model is missing but this feels pretty much like a sure thing.