Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal: The Debrief

Arsenal stay unbeaten but continue to play under expectations

Depending on the type of person you are you can come away from this match a couple of different ways.

The optimistic reading is that Arsenal are still unbeaten, and showed some resilience to fight back for a draw after going down two goals.

The pessimistic reading is that this is another data point on a worrying trend where Arsenal are not playing well and needed late heroics and a gift to get back into a game that if they want to be title challengers they should have larger expectations for.

This post will tend towards the more pessimistic reading but like so much right now, it is more complicated than the black-and-white reading.

Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal: The Graphics

Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal: The Debrief

0.85 - Arsenal’s expected goals from open play

5 - Times this season out of nine matches they have failed to produce more than 1 expected goal from open play. Last season Arsenal didn’t get to 5 matches under 1 open play xG until February (20 matches played).

It feels like the same story over and over again this season with Arsenal, a total lack of cutting-edge.

Maybe this is driven by rose-colored glasses where we remember the best of last season but I think there is a pretty big drop in the production.

2.7 - Last season to start the year (before the World Cup) Arsenal averaged 2.7 big chances per match (excluding penalties) and had just 1 match where they didn’t generate at least 2.

1.8 - This season that number is down a full big chance per match. Arsenal’s numbers are greatly boosted by penalties right now (and that can and does affect the way the match plays out) and it is becoming a major concern. They have had 4 matches where they generated 0 or 1 big chance this year.

12.2 - Shots from open play per match to start last season (before the World Cup)

10 - Shots from open play per match to start this season, including just 7 in today’s match.

Arsenal’s quality of shots is down and the volume of shots is down. It is a messy picture and trying to figure out what exactly is going wrong is not super clear.

49 - Final third entries for Arsenal against Chelsea.

55.5 - Final third entries per match this season, compared to 58 at the start of last season

I know I saw quite a bit of complaints about Jorginho post-match for his performance but given his main job was to link defense and attack I think he did that job well leading Arsenal in final third entries (12) and progressive passes (9).

Arsenal have been getting into the final third at roughly the same rate as last season, and have had more of their possession in the final third.

Where things broke down against Chelsea is taking that possession and turning it into something dangerous that creates a shooting chance. However, that has not been the trend this season.

26 - Deep completions at the start of last season for Arsenal.

29 - Deep completions this season for Arsenal, including the 8 that they managed in this match.

In this match the players that we look to, to provide the creativity really went missing.

0 - Deep completions from Oleksandr Zinchenko (only played a half)

0 - Deep completions from Gabriel Jesus

1 - Deep completion from Martin Odegaard

2 - Deep completions from Bukayo Saka

3 - Deep completions from Gabriel Martinelli

The hope of getting the starting front 3 back together to fix things was shattered. It was not a good day for any of them (maybe Martinelli could be have said to have played well) and when all three (plus Odegaard and Zinchenko) are off their best it isn’t a surprise that the team struggles. There are mitigating factors, bad pitch, coming back from injury, coming off an international break, etc but it still doesn’t provide a lot of comfort right now.

David Raya isn’t quieting the doubters

51 - Pass Attempts

40 - Pass Completed

78.4% - Pass completion %

101.6% - Pass Efficiency (actual passing compared to expected passing)

3 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed

8 - Long Passes completed

44.4% - Long Pass %

1 - Cross claimed, of 7 faced

4 - Sweeper actions

3 - Saves of 5* shots on target faced (1.9 post shot xG faced)

This is a hard match to get a read on Raya.

He concedes two goals, one from a well-taken penalty and the other from a mishit cross (I don’t think his positioning is obviously wrong there). Outside of that, he makes one routine save and two good ones, including a good one in the 95th minute to ensure Arsenal left with a point (with a claim off the toe in a one-on-one thrown in as well thrown in).

His passing isn’t great with a heart attack pass that leads to Cole Palmer getting a massive gift (which he does clean up) and several long passes that go out to touch (that people hounded Ramsdale for similar). Yet, he still ended up completing more passes than expected and had some very nice line-breaking passes to break Chelsea presses.

Raya hasn’t come in and made it look like he is the obvious number one (even I think he’s still played better than Ramsdale in basically the same minutes) and the calls for Ramsdale to get a chance are growing. The blogfather himself, Arseblog even made that call today in his blog.

This is going to be a long and drawn-out topic until one of the two, step up and give a clear answer or ask to look for a new team.

Saka has a first-half stinker

16 - Pass Attempts with 11 completed, for 68.8 Pass% and 85% efficiency

1 - Final 3rd Entry Pass

2 - Progressive Passes

0 - Key Passes

0 - Shots

0 - Dribbles Completed

1 - Progressive Carry

0 - Carry into the box

2 - Progressive Passes Received

0 - Touches in the box

3 - Dispossessed

2 - Miscontrol

3 - Fouls

11 - Times lost possession

I have not seen a player get the better of Saka in a half like Marc Cucurella did in a long long time. He lost almost all of his duels against him (2 of 10) with him completely shut down and creating no threat at all.

Saka did turn it around in the second half but with the struggles Arsenal had today it would be remiss to gloss over the player that the team depends on most without a mention.

Odegaard has a very bad, no good day

25 - Pass Attempts with 80.0% completion and 103.9% Pass Efficiency

0 - Final 3rd Entry Passes

1 - Progressive Pass

1 - Box Entry Pass

-0.05 - Regular Play Passing Goal Probability Added (the estimate of how his passing from open play added or subtracted to Arsenal’s chances of scoring)

2 - Key Passes, 0.14 xG assisted

0 - Open Play Key Passes

0 - Shots

0 - Dribbles Completed

1 - Progressive Carries

0 - Touches in the box

1 - Deep Touches

4 - Times Miscontroled

1 - Tackle

1 - Interception

2 - Ball Recoveries

Odegaard is starting to develop a worrying trend where he looks like a shadow of himself when coming back from an international break. Saturday against Chelsea didn’t do anything to arrest that trend. He looked like he had never played with his teammates at times, his passes were aimed at runs that a player wasn’t making, or just over or under hit to where they had no chance to do something dangerous after (if they could get to them at all).