Chelsea take the Pedro Neto Risk

Wishing them all the luck in the world on their journey and I am relieved that it wasn't Arsenal making the gamble

I don’t rate Pedro Neto as highly as a lot of people.

I think that is pretty clear, given that many people whose opinions I respect are high on him while I fail to be fully convinced by him. I don’t think he’s a bad player by any means but from my perspective, the hype on the player doesn’t match what the player has done.

There is always the chance for growth and further improvement to be unlocked but we are also talking about a 24-year-old winger. That is the start of a wide player’s prime for them to do winger things and big jumps in improvement are not the norm.

I can’t help but look at his stats and feel like I am being gaslit on this player.

THIS IS A WINGER WORTH OVER 50 MILLION OF THE KING’S FINEST POUNDS?

The reporting suggests that is exactly what Chelsea think and what they are willing to pay to try and find out.

I can see some pluses here, he’s a good dribbler and carrier (not elite and a skill that is likely to decline). This is the area that seems to drive a lot of his value

This is good!

He also combined that with a good creative season last year.

There is almost certainly some air in the numbers here for the assists but good key pass numbers supported the idea that he is at least good at providing service to his teammates. He does get a good portion of his key passes from set plays but his 1.4 key passes from open play still rate as above average.

One of the things that does jump out here on the map and the stats is that he isn’t that much of a passer into the penalty area, nor the areas close to the box.

Then we get to the less good stuff.

He is not a guy who has shown much in the way of getting his own shot in good locations.

He has averaged about 2 shots per 90 and they have come from petty poor locations, both far out and from tough angles.

The ratings for the stats that make up this trait just don’t look good and I wouldn’t expect that to be different for a player that has scored just 11 goals in the Premier League.

When you take everything together he looks less like an elite player ready for a big move but rather a player that has some nice traits but who would be a potential star in the making here.

One thing you might have noticed that I haven’t touched yet is probably the biggest red flag here. That is his injury history.

This hangs over everything for the player and also makes taking a big bet on him less palatable. He has been in the Premier League for 5 seasons and has played just 71 90s in that time, breaking more than 20 90s just once.

Maybe he gets past the injuries that have plagued him, it isn’t impossible or something that has never happened. It is also not something that I would be willing to take a big bet on.

I think that is the main takeaway here. Everything about the player comes with uncertainty.

Can he take the clear skills (I think it makes him a great highlight or Match of the Day player) that he has and translate them into more production than he has shown in the past?

Can he handle the rigors of playing a big minute load without breaking down?

Can he handle a change of role where everything in attack doesn’t flow through him and also having some defensive responsibility?

I wouldn’t have hated a move for Pedro Neto at Arsenal but I am a little glad it looks like another team will be taking on the risk of trying to find out the answers to the questions above.