Coping without Zinchenko

Arsenal have been dealt an injury blow to a player that has helped transform them this season, how can they deal with that.

There was some surprising Arsenal news coming from David Ornstein yesterday, William Saliba (not the surprising part) and Oleksandr Zinchenko would miss the rest of the season due to injury.

When Zinchenko came off against Newcastle, I thought that it was an intelligent substitute to look to nullify what could become an issue tactically proactively, I did not expect that it was due to an injury. It does look like it was the case, and perhaps this was something that had been with him for a while, with the same injury keeping him out against West Ham.

I think it is hard to say that Arsenal won’t miss him and what he helps to add to the team.

His stats profile is unique, providing elite passing and ball progression starting from the fullback position. I pulled the most similar players and while others can match the other metrics none add those plus the passing.

As a fullback, his passing is simply unique and not something that you see often in the modern game.

Within the Arsenal team he stands out for simply how much and how well he passes. No Arsenal player is involved in more of the buildup to Arsenal chances than Zinchenko having a part to play in nearly 40% of the expected goals that Arsenal have created while he is on the pitch.

His ability to draw out pressure and then complete the next pass is a very special skill that unlocks and makes the next sequence of events possible. It will lead to a few giveaways and moments that drive frustration but he is without a doubt adding significantly more value with this high-risk strategy than he takes away when it doesn’t come off.

Imperfect Replacements

When you look in the Arsenal team it feels like you are stuck with two imperfect options. If Takehiro Tomiyasu was healthy I would probably suggest he step into that role, because he seems the most comfortable playing in the same areas and can do an inferior but passable version of Zinchenko’s ball progression. Unfortunately, he is also out for the season, meaning that three of Arsenal’s first five options along the backline are not available making this a very hard choice.

Option 1, pick the other left back.

I think this is the most likely choice but it is not one that I am excited about. Kieran Tierney is a good player but he is a very different type of fullback and looks like a fish out of water too often trying to replicate and take up the same positions as Zinchenko.

Tierney is more in the classic cut of a fullback playing a game that hugs the touchline, providing solid one on one defense against wingers, looking to support the attack with overlapping runs, and providing an attacking threat through crosses and cutbacks. We have seen this work well at Arsenal but it is very different than what the team does currently.

When he tries to play a more auxiliary midfield role, the timing of play feels just slightly off and awkward. He is in the right positions most of the time (I don’t think he has the same knack for always seeming to be the spare man that Zinchenko can be but again few are) but it is just not the same. While Zinchenko invites pressure on the ball, trusting that he can pass through it, Tierney too often reverts to just booting the ball up the field in similar situations.

A Tierney sub would be the least disruptive on paper because he is also a left-back, but I don’t know if it would also be the least disruptive from a how Arsenal plays perspective.

Option 2, Granit Xhaka to left back.

It feels like at the end of seasons this move is becoming a tradition, so we might as well explore it.

Given the choices that are within the team, Xhaka might actually be the closest like-for-like type substitution that the team can put into the role. This isn’t that crazy, Xhaka has played left back for Arsenal and when Zinchenko is in the team he will often fill that spot as Zinchenko floats around. Xhaka is and has always been a very good passer and gives something similar to Zinchenko but probably not quite at the same level of press resistance.

The downside to a move like this is that it also means a second change in the team and that is something that Mikel Arteta doesn’t usually love, favoring just going to the next man up on the depth chart.

So what to do?

I don’t think there is a good and clean choice here. If it is Tierney I think that means that Arsenal have to adjust the style of play to ensure that we get the buildup from other areas of the field. That might be Jorginho in midfield to replicate the pace-setting and maybe Leandro Trossard on the wing giving Tierney more license to fill the wide slot in the attack.

If it is another option like Xhaka, that means making a choice of either bringing in a Fabio Vieira or Emile Smith Rowe to make a more attacking lineup or adding either Thomas Partey or Jorginho to midfield and maybe losing some of Xhaka’s attacking influence (a crazy thing to write thinking back a few years).

I expect that we will see Tierney but I am not confident about it. It will be interesting to actually see how the lineup looks an hour before kickoff for a change.