That was a pleasant way to get ready for Christmas.
It wasn’t perfect, and I am sure that Mikel Arteta will have some ideas for how the team can improve on that performance but back-to-back wins against Crystal Palace in the League Cup and then the Premier League, with 8 goals scored will help get the vibes moving in a positive direction again.
Arsenal also have one of their longest breaks of the season ahead of them, with 6 days between this match and Friday’s kickoff at home against Ipswitch.
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal: The Graphics
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal: The Debrief
Arsenal get positive variance on their side
5 - Goals scored for Arsenal against Crystal Palace
6 - Shots on target for Arsenal against Crystal Palace
42% - Of Arsenal’s shots in this match were on target 6/14
2.3 - Expected goals for Arsenal against Crystal Palace
5 - Big Chances for Arsenal against Crystal Palace
After matches where Arsenal generated 3 total expected goals (1.8 and 1.2) against Fulham and Everton and scored just 1 goal from 25 total shots (12 and 13), in this match Arsenal generated fewer expected goals (2.3 from 14 shots) but were able to put five past Dean Henderson.
Soccer is a funny sport like that sometimes. Arsenal did have more high-quality chances here but it seems so often for Arsenal that getting the first goal across the line lubricates the team for more goals to flow.
Scoring 5 times from these shots wasn’t that out of the blue but it was certainly not the normal expected outcome. Running the simulation of the shots and Arsenal score 5 or more about 10% of the time from these chances.
The big differentiator here beyond just adding a few higher quality chances was that Arsenal did an excellent job of placing their shots on frame in this match. All six shots that Arsenal put on target here, plus two more that went off woodwork, were in the corners and in locations where it was not easy to save.
4.0 - Arsenal’s post shot, expected goals adding in the information on where on frame the ball was. The FBref numbers from Opta have it lower at 2.8 but solidly above the regular numbers.
When you do that, you’re going to score goals.
Arsenal dialed up the chaos
3 - Errors leading to a shot for Arsenal in this match, this is tied for the most this season that the team has had, the other match where they had 3 was away to Bournemouth.
This match was very different than what we have come to expect from Arsenal. I don’t know if it was a bad thing, given that the nature of the game seemed to create openings for Arsenal to exploit but it was no doubt different.
Crystal Palace were effective with their pressure in this match. Crystal Palace created 8 high turnovers, turning 3 of them into shots and did an excellent job disrupting the Arsenal build up.
Arsenal struggled to progress the ball into the final third here, with just 43% of their sequences getting into that zone, this season Arsenal have managed 51% of their possessions getting into the final third.
86% - Arsenal’s buildup passing efficiency in this match. 100% would signal completing as many passes as expected and above is completing more passes than expected. This is typically where Arsenal feature, in this match Arsenal would have been expected to complete 290 of the 320 passes that they attempted in the defensive half of the pitch and instead completed just 247.
This led to a match where Crystal Palace had opportunities to hurt Arsenal. In this match Arsenal never fully had it within the team’s grasp and the overall flow was very back and forth.
Crystal Palace did well, capitalizing on uncharacteristic Arsenal mistakes and by being able to play through an Arsenal lineup that moved away from the more typical style of the 4-3-3, with Kai Havertz at left midfield and Declan Rice on the bench.
15 - Shots allowed, this is 6 more than they had allowed in the matches against Everton, Fulham, and Manchester United combined.
2.0 - Expected goals allowed, this is the third most the team has allowed this season.
I am very happy with the result but this is very much a match where on another day Crystal Palace’s shots go in and we are talking about a very different story line. I am so happy to not live in that alternate world today.
Jesus finds himself again
2 - Goals scored
5 - Shots, 3 On Target, 4 Shots in Prime locations
0.93 - xG
1 - Dribble Completed, 3 attempted
5 - Long Pass Received
4 - Progressive Passes Received
6 - Touches in the box
8 - Deep Touches
1 - Tackle
1 - Fouls
1 - Interceptions
2 - Blocked Passes
2 - Ball Recoveries, 1 High Ball Recoveries
3 - Clearances
3 - Aerial Duel Won of 5 attempted
0.60 - Goal Probability Added
It has been a tough year and maybe even year and a half for Gabriel Jesus.
He came to Arsenal and opened our eyes to what was possible with his dynamic, do everything, be everywhere style. He has never been a finisher of moves but it was obvious that he was adding so much to the team with his play.
Then he got injured.
Then he got injured again, and again, and again. He would be on the cusp of looking like something getting close to his old self to then suffer another set back. We get to this season and it is more of the same, he had a summer off to fully recover and came into the pre-season in good shape and looking sharp, to get hit with a groin injury. Since he suffered that, he looked like a player that had lost trust in his body, he looked like a player that was pressing for a goal, basically name a psychological explanation for decline and you could be pretty safe to use to describe Jesus.
This is what makes his performance here sweeter; he by all accounts is a player that works hard and has not been a problem in the dressing room, given his injury problems and his loss of starting spot that could be understandable. It makes me very happy to see him perform like this, and it could not have come at a better time for Arsenal.
Your model seems to really undervalue shots from within the six yard box with the keeper already committed.