Early KPIs for Arsenal in 2023/24

Setting the baseline expectations for success for next year.

Doing the monthly Key Performance checks are one of my favorite reoccurring posts that I do. I think they help a lot to get a sense of how the team is doing in a cold rational sense from a preset baseline.

Now it is time to start thinking about what the numbers to track for next season will be and what I believe for the baseline of success will be.

Last season I set the baseline for performance at the average of the third/fourth place team in the Premier League and I think that worked pretty well for the minimum expectations. This season it feels like we need to go up a level and I am going to use the average of the teams that finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. I waffled a bit on if I should include the 3rd place team or not but I think it balances the overall numbers nicely to set a good baseline for the minimum expectations for a successful performance next year.

I think the current metrics that I did have done now for two seasons work well so I won’t be making any changes here so we will continue to look at points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, shots, and field tilt.

Points: The average for 1st to 3rd is 2.29 points per match, which is just under 87 points. I am going to round up and say 87 points will be my minimum expectation (wow that seems high right now). Last season’s target was 1.89 points per match.

Goals: The average for 1st to 3rd is 2.07 non-penalty goals, that's 79 goals. I think that's a little on the low end and I would be comfortable bumping that to an even 80 goals and 2.1 per match. Last season’s target was 1.67 non-penalty goals.

Goals Allowed: The average for 1st to 3rd is 0.83 non-penalty goals allowed, that's 31.5 goals, that is one of the bigger jumps so far given that Arsenal allowed 39 non-penalty goals last season but I think that is the area where the team can improve the most. Last season’s target was 0.97 non-penalty goals allowed.

Goal Difference:  The average for 1st to 3rd is 1.24 non-penalty goal difference per match, that's a non-pen goal difference of plus 47. Last season’s target was plus 27 overall.

Expected Goals: The average for 1st to 3rd is 1.98 non-penalty expected goals, that's 75 expected goals and again feels a little low but in the plausible baseline range. Last season’s target was 1.54 per match.

Expected Goals Against: The average for 1st to 3rd is 0.97 non-penalty expected goals, that's 37 expected goals allowed. Last season’s target was 1.25 per match.

Expected Goal Difference: The average for 1st to 3rd is 1.01 non-penalty expected goals difference, that's plus 38 expected goals difference. Last season’s target was plus 25 overall.

Open Play Shots For: The average for 1st to 3rd is 11.9 open play shots per match. Last season’s target was 11.4 per match (a pretty small increase here).

Open Play Shots Against: The average for 1st to 3rd is 7.4 open play shots allowed per match. Last season’s target was 6.8 per match (so actually okay with allowing a bit more but they need to be of lower average quality).

Open Play Shot Difference: The average for 1st to 3rd is 4.5 open play shots difference per match. Last season’s target was 4.6 per match.

Deep Completions For: The average for 1st to 3rd is 27.7 Deep Completions per match. Last season’s target was 24.8 per match.

Deep Completions Against: The average for 1st to 3rd is 14.3 Deep Completions allowed per match. Last season’s target was 4.4 per match.

Deep Completion Difference: The average for 1st to 3rd is 13.4 Deep Completions difference per match. Last season’s target was 10.4 per match.

Field Tilt: The average for 1st to 3rd is 64.8% share of field tile per match. Last season’s target was a 62.5% share of field tile per match.

As of right now, these feel like realistic targets for Arsenal. This isn’t as big of a step up from when the team went from 8th to needing to challenge for top 4 but the margins at the top are smaller and the team already came close to performing at the expected level to challenge and just needs a marginal step forward.

I am excited for the team and I wonder what the general expectations for the team is next season among the fans. I really want to see at a minimum Arsenal consolidate their spot as one of the best three teams in the League and as a top team in Europe.

It feels like a top 3 finish, advancing from the group stage in the Champions League (and maybe advancing pretty deep depending on the draw), while also not punting the domestic cups is the more squishy type expectation for me right now.

Another title challenge would be great but it also could be something that with the general toughness of the League will be hard to do even if they perform at the levels above.

Am I off on these? Too ambitious? Not ambitious enough? Let me know.