Eberechi Eze: The Debrief
This is one of the most exciting transfers that Arsenal have made in quite a while. The vibes are good, let's see if the player matches those.
There are few things that will get a fanbase gassed and excited quite like the signing of an attacking player. That gets ramped up even higher when that player has the flare and variety of skills that make you stop and go wow. When you can hijack the move from a rival and the player is a boyhood fan and member of the academy it is just that much more special.
We got all of that with Eberechi Eze and this is by far the most excited I have seen the fanbase for a move in quite a while and it puts a nice cherry on top of a window that as promised has been pretty unprecedented in Arsenal history.
This is normally a situation where I like to have my deep dive stats scouting article to point to but the speed that this deal has come together means that this newsletter is coming out before that one is finished. It should be finished soon and when it is if you are subscribed it will be in your email box, I will also update this post with the link at that time as well.
Here in the new player debrief you’ll still get lots of details, but it will be a bit more rapid-fire context to understand them.
Eberechi Eze: The Debrief
Right off the bat, it is pretty clear that this is a player where there is a major divergence from fan opinion and the stats on the player but going in the opposite direction of where things were with say a Noni Madueke.
Madueke is a stats darling that has fans skeptical and wasn’t helped by the taint of Chelsea. Eze is a highlights darling that has fans falling over themselves and is boosted by an excellent story of a return to his childhood club and that he is on a more lovable underdog team.
These players share quite a bit of similarity in that they are both very high volume players but they come from different environments and that will color the numbers and the initial view. They will also be key contributors to helping to bolster Arsenal’s attack adding key attributes that the team lacked.
Attacking and Creative Metrics:
0.24 - Non-Penalty Goals, percentile: 71.6
0.34 - Non-Penalty xG, percentile: 86.5
2.22 - Open Play Shots, percentile: 86.5
0.26 - Open Play xG, percentile: 83.6
8.57 - Open Play xG Per Shot (Avg Change Quality), percentile: 0.7
0.57 - Shots per touch within 25 yards of goal, percentile: 83.0
0.1 - xG Per Shot, percentile: 51.9
0.2 - Shots in Prime Locations (within 12 yards of goal), percentile: 45.3
-0.07 - Post Shot xG Added (The difference in xG of a shot and the estimated finishing quality Post Shot xG), percentile: 7.9
0.28 - On Target Percentage, percentile: 26.1
1.26 - Set Play Shots, percentile: 99.6
26.4% - Shot Usage (the percentage of total shots while playing that the player attempted), percentile: 97.2
21.3% - xG Usage (the percentage of total xG while playing that the player took the shot from), percentile: 78.6
Eze’s shooting is about getting that volume. Last season he took 100 shots and that would have been plenty to see him as the clear leader at Arsenal where Leandro Trossard led the team with 72. On a per 90 basis he would have been right there with Bukayo Saka (3.44) with his 3.47 shots per 90.
Arsenal were only 5th last season in shots taken in the Premier League and that’s a tough spot to win a title from.
The shot locations aren’t always the best and some of the decision making of shooting into a crowd led to a lower on target percentage than you’d like but the man is going to bring actions and that is something that Arsenal lacked last season (and have directly addressed with Eze, Gyokeres, and Madueke).
0.27 - Assists, percentile: 86.1
0.21 - Open Play xA, percentile: 88.1
1.19 - Open Play Key Passes, percentile: 68.9
0.53 - Shot Creating Action xG Assisted, percentile: 92.0
19.6% - Key Pass Usage, percentile: 81.3
3.68 - Passes Completed with 25 yards of goal, percentile: 85.7
2.83 - Passes Completed into the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile: 91.8
3.21 - Passes Completed Pass inside the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile: 91.0
0.05 - Set Play xA, percentile: 72.1
0.78 - Set Play Key Passes, percentile: 90.9
0.95 - Crosses Completed within 25 yards of Goal, percentile: 81.3
3.75 - Crosses Attempted (Including set plays), percentile: 78.4
25.5% - Cross Completion Percentage, percentile: 61.3
Creatively Eze stands out.
The name of the game here is again VOLUME and given the lack of fluency and threat on the left-hand side at times this is a welcome addition. He was the creative hub at Crystal Palace and has the potential to help balance out the Arsenal team and pick up some of the burden that falls on Saka and Odegaard.
Passing and Ball Progression Metrics:
100.0% - Pass Efficiency (actual passing completion divided by the expected completion percentage), percentile: 60.9
0.09 - Goal Probability Added through Passing (Measure of changes in the teams chances of scoring/conceding following pass attempts), percentile: 80.8
9.2% - Passing Usage (the percentage of total passes while playing that the player attempted), percentile: 56.1
34.79 - Passing Volume (total attempts), percentile: 43.3
75.4% - Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 48.8
9.8% - Middle 3rd Passing Usage, percentile: 63.3
18.4% - Attacking 3rd Passing Usage, percentile: 78.7
2.05 - Completed Final Third Entries, percentile: 39.9
13.3 - Attacking 3rd Pass Attempts, percentile: 35.8
86.4% - Attacking 3rd Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 65.9
0.94 - xG Chain (total xG involved in), percentile: 93.1
0.38 - xG Buildup (total xG involved in, excluding the shot and key pass), percentile: 76.8
51.9% - xG Buildup Usage (the percentage of total xG while on the field that he participated in the buildup to), percentile: 87.8
5.18 - Long Pass Attempts, percentile: 73.5
42.8% - Long Pass Completion Percentage, percentile: 16.1
2.97 - Progressive Passes Completed, percentile: 53.1
0.28 - Fields Gained (progressive yards through passing and carrying dived by the length of the field), percentile: 14.7
0.67 - Attacking 3rd Fields Gained, percentile: 58.1
-0.32 - Middle 3rd Fields Gained, percentile: 3.7
Eze in a Crystal Palace side didn’t get a ton of passes like he might in a team like Arsenal that has more of the ball but he was still one of their higher usage players, especially in the final third. His overall passing volume is a bit below average (40th percentile) but his final third usage was high for his team (nearly 80th percentile).
The style difference between Arsenal and Crystal Palace make it tougher to draw large conclusions from but overall, he comes out looking fine and ever so slightly above average. He’s hurt by some of the lack of volume here but also that he isn’t exactly a ball progression machine with his passing. Chaning to Arsenal could have a major impact on those numbers so I am not overly concerned about it and depending on where he lines up, that could be very much a duty that is down the list of what he is asked to do.
Carrying, Dribbles, and Receiving Metrics
4.77 - Progressive Carries, percentile: 62.2
0.05 - Goal Probability Added through Carrying/Dribbles (Measure of changes in the team’s chances of scoring/conceding following carries and attacking duel attempts), percentile: 79.2
1.81 - Carries into the Final Third, percentile: 58.4
0.99 - Carries into the box, percentile: 79.3
4.6 - Dribble, Attempted, percentile: 88.9
2.18 - Dribble, Completed, percentile: 87.5
1.53 - Dispossessed, percentile: 62.6
1.74 - Foul Suffered, percentile: 69.8
47.4% - Dribble Success %, percentile: 46.4
63.9% - Attacking Duel Win %, percentile: 40.7
This is an area that I expected the numbers to be stronger based on the reputation and my memories of watching him play but it is something that looks above average when I was expecting something closer to elite.
Maybe the numbers are not picking up things, maybe my brain is distorting things over indexing a few moments vs remembering the full picture of what happened in a match.
The team effects could be a factor here but I would be a bit skeptical of that angle, Eze is given lots of freedom to do things and he is the hub for actions in the attacking half of the pitch for Crystal Palace and that should give him plenty of opportunities and not negatively drag down the volume (it certain doesn’t for shots or key passes).
Carrying and dribbling are also a young player skill and with Eze completing his age 26 season that is typically post peak for these stats. Here is a look at how these skills change with age from Michael Caley from his expecting goals newsletter:
His technical level is still incredibly high and he is comfortable in the tight spaces vs using his speed to beat players so maybe he will be able to hold up a bit more and stay in this above average range longer than would be typically expected.
3.55 - Touches in the box, percentile: 64.7
6.14 - Deep Touches (within 25 yards of goal), percentile: 77.2
1.43 - Very Deep Touches (within 15 yards of goal), percentile: 67.4
29.53 - Passes Received, percentile: 41.2
5.35 - Progressive Passes Received, percentile: 61.6
4.67 - Final Third Entry Received, percentile: 51.3
1.36 - Penalty Area Passes Received, percentile: 60.8
0.48 - Crosses Received, percentile: 63.1
1.88 - Unsuccessful Touches (miscontrolling a pass or a bad touch), percentile: 57.2
The receiving numbers paint the picture of a lot of what we have seen above; he doesn’t get a ton of volume of receptions compared to others in his position but when he does, they are more often the result of the team progressing to him or him getting the ball in dangerous locations.
Ball Winning Metrics
2.97 - Possession Adjusted (padj) Defensive Duels Contested, percentile: 23.2
2.42 - Padj Tackles Attempted, percentile: 44.6
1.61 - Padj Successful Tackles, percentile: 54.4
54.3% - Tackle % (Successful Tackles/ Tackles + Fouls Committed), percentile: 95.2
33.3% - Dribbled Past % (Dribbled Past/ Tackles Attempted), percentile: 75.5
0.42 - Padj Clearances, percentile: 24.0
0.55 - Padj Fouls Committed, percentile: 5.8
1.61 - Padj Interceptions, percentile: 48.4
6.2 - Padj Ball Recoveries, percentile: 74.6
Given Eze’s attacking importance to Crystal Palace, he gets a bit of a break on needing to win the ball back. He still contributes to this but he isn’t going to be confused with a ball winning monster and that’s not uncommon for a player that has his role in a squad. There is nothing here that would make me concerned that he doesn’t do enough work off of the ball out of possession.
The pressing numbers would have him among the bottom of Arsenal’s wingers and attacking midfielders (data via StatsBomb):
Eze - 14.4, 40th percentile
Bukayo Saka - 16.8, 58th percentile
Gabriel Martinelli - 17.2, 61st percentile
Noni Madueke - 17.9, 66th percentile
Martin Odegaard - 23.0, 88th percentile
Leandro Trossard - 23.1, 89th percentile
He is an attacking player, and he’s been brought into the team for those attributes.
Final thoughts
This move is not one that matches the previous modus operandi for Arsenal.
The age isn’t perfect, there is a question of tactical/positional fit in the team, and the price is on the expensive side for the production and age.
These are valid reasons to have some uncertainty about the move, but it is going to be something that gets you a “shut up nerd ☝️🤓, we don’t need your well akschoully right now” response and I get it.
This is a move that you’d expect a bit more under Arsene Wenger where he never had enough of this type of player, one that had the buckets of technical ability and the ability to improvise outside of the structure of the team, creating something out of nothing.
That is something that the Arsenal team right now just doesn’t have with nearly enough abundance. Arsenal have Saka, sometimes Odegaard can conjure it, maybe Madueke could do it, and after that we are really stretching and squinting to see it.
Here is what James McNicholas reported at the start of the summer on Arsenal’s goals with additions this summer:
After Arsenal’s elimination against Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarter-finals, the feeling among the hierarchy was that the team lacked a certain X-factor in attack — something special to unlock defences on the biggest occasions.
This is exactly what Eze potentially represents for Arsenal and some of those other questions don’t matter nearly as much. He represents really well the type of capstone, luxury player that helps finish off a very good squad. Arsenal’s squad before this was excellent and could have won the Premier League or Champions League, with him in the squad there is that little bit extra that in those marginal matches where things are tough or the attack isn’t quite clicking to provide the impact to turn a draw into a win.
I am telling my inner nerd to shut up and enjoy what he can bring, because it is a beautiful story and he is a beautiful player that will make you fall in love with this game.
Welcome, Eze.