Europa League Disappointment
A grab bag processing a very disappointing result
I am not sure my full thoughts after that match from Arsenal. One the one hand, not having the extra high leverage matches is certainly not something that would hurt Arsenal but it is also now a higher probability that Arsenal’s potentially special season ends with nothing.
A mini debrief on Sporting
I was very confident in Arsenal’s ability to get past Sporting and them not has me doing a bit of reexamining just how good this team actually is. The betting odds had put Arsenal at 80% to advance, with FiveThirtyEight at 73%, which got even better with how strong of a team Mikel Arteta put out with the betting odds pushing 85% at kickoff.
When Arsenal came out they ended up looking like a facsimile of the team that we have seen week in and week out in the Premier League. They had no control of the game and for long stretches were unable to get out of their own half.
62% - Possession for Sporting in the opening 15 minutes
2 - Pass attempts that started in the final third for Arsenal in the opening 15 minutes
Arsenal got a foothold in the match after that but still never really had prolonged spells of dominance. There were some delightful Jorginho passes and some good play between the front three (having Gabriel Jesus back really sparks this team) but never the unrelenting waves of attack that we have seen from Arsenal this season that seemed like a second goal to kill the match was coming until the last few minutes of extra time.
I have to admit that is a worry.
There are some mitigating factors with two first-half injuries and a half-time sub certainly sapping Arsenal’s ability to build any continuity and flow between the players but this was still a strong team from Arteta. Arsenal made just five changes from the weekend but on paper had a backline that most would not worry about in a big Premier League match, a midfield full of experience (which I don’t think works as is), and a frontline feature 2 of Arsenal’s first-choice players. Of the players on the pitch I think really only Reiss Nelson, Jorginho, and Fabio Vieira would raise eyebrows if they were picked over a healthy alternative in the team.
This performance was not great but perhaps could have been enough.
Arsenal created 2.1 expected goals and 2.8 post-shot expected goals. They put 8 of their 13 shots on target and it took a very good performance from Antonio Adán to stop them from scoring more.
Fábio Vieira Disapears
30 - Pass Attempts on 83.3% Pass completion and 98.9% Pass Efficiency
3 - Progressive Passes
2 - Deep Completions (not Cross)
0 - Open Play Key Pass
1 - Shot
0.06 - xG
0 - Dribbles Completed on 4 Dribbles Attempted
0 - Fouled
4 - Progressive Carries
4 - Progressive Passes Received
4 - Deep Touches
1 - Tackle
1 - Fouls
1 - Blocked Passes
0 - Aerial Duel Won of 2 Aerial Duel contested
Going into this match I rated Vieira pretty highly feeling like he was on the cusp of being able to provide a first-team impact. I came away with positive vibes after the first leg in Portugal where he looked really up for it and played above his slight frame physically. In this match he seemed to disappear into the background too easily. When Arsenal were struggling to get the ball out of their own half he didn’t help provide an outlet to break the press, in the final third where he is normally so good he seemed off and out of sync with his teammates.
Of the players that were true rotations, I think his stock fell the most here. We already knew Jorginho in a footrace was something to avoid (something I think the excellent pressing of Martin Odegaard helps cover for), we already knew Rob Holding looks like a fish out of water playing in a high line and being asked to play passes under pressure, we didn’t (or at least I didn’t) know how Vieira would look when Arsenal’s control of a match were under threat and he would be called upon.
My trust in him should he be called upon in the upcoming matches has been dented. If he has to start I am going to be very worried. The standing of Martin Odegaard in the team rose pretty dramatically for me after this match.
Is the Europa League Exit a blessing in disguise?
I know this is something that has come out of the aftermath, losing last night was actually a good thing.
I can’t actually get there myself, but I understand the thoughts behind it. I think it is because it is a big prioritization of the Premier League over the Europa League and wanting to throw everything else to focus on just that.
I am on board with the priority call here, winning the Premier League is hard, doing so without a big spending advantage is even harder. This would be a massive moment for the club and would be incredibly memorable.
Winning the Europa League would also be pretty impressive feat (but still lesser), especially given how the draw would have turned out, having to go through Juventus and Manchester United on the way to the final.
So much of is this good or bad depends on how much you think there is a penalty to a team that is focusing on two items and having to play extra high-leverage matches. Honestly, I come out thinking that the direction of impact is ambiguous.
I can see the argument that extra matches can cause problems but the data doesn’t really support that. (I think that extra minutes, especially with big jumps can more manifest in future seasons)
I think with Arsenal specifically you saw that the team was using this as a chance to rotate and use their squad. Injuries can and do happen, Arsenal picked up a bad one (Takehiro Tomiyasu) and one that I hope is not too bad (William Saliba) but this can and does happen even if a team is playing just once a week. Last season Arsenal didn’t have the Europa League and ended the season in the middle of an injury crisis playing close to the minimum of matches.
They made 6 and 5 changes respectively over both legs in this tie and I think that was the right call. This wasn’t a team only making one or two changes fielding a first team for the Champions League (maybe that would have been the case for future rounds but I still think we would have seen 3-4 changes in those matches to keep players out of the red zone).
In the soft factors part of the argument I can see both sides. Arsenal have the sole focus on the Premier League now but they also only have the Premier League now too where the pressure of every result is now even more magnified.
There is also from a fan’s perspective what a trophy could have meant looking back if Arsenal don’t win the Premier League this season. Thinking back to some recent moments where Arsenal were close to the Premier League title race, 2013-14 and 2015-16, I remember 13-14 much more fondly now than I do 15-16 even if Arsenal were closer and for longer in 15-16.
The Europa League would never mean more, but it could have been a nice consolation prize should the worst have happened. I really want to look back on this special team and have a good memory and not disappointment.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. Eleven Cup Finals to go.
Simulated Odds
Enjoy the weekend, look out for an instant reaction and debrief after Crystal Palace and then a cool announcement from me next week.
Yee Haw.
Fair to be a bit glass half empty but I’m not so downbeat. I know a team ‘wanting it more’ is highly non-analytical but mentally both teams were in very different places - subconsciously or otherwise Arsenal were far less concerned about this match/competition than Sporting and you could tell. That gives me some comfort because I don’t think there is a collective trend to find for the rest of the season, it’s just a bad result.
On individuals, I know you guys have been very positive on Vieira but I’ve yet to see it and last night was more of the same. Aside from his lack of athleticism and willingness to put his body on the line, sometimes his choices are bad and then badly executed. It might improve with more familiarity but I haven’t got much hope to cling to.
And can I also throw in Ben White’s fitness / stamina. Would love to know if he’s running way more than others but the guy looks completely spent after 60 minutes as a starter. He lasted into extra time last night but again was wrecked. With Tomiyasu seemingly out for a while, it’s one that makes me nervous.