Film study: Benjamin Šeško

Big, fast, goals. Good for Arsenal?

Arsenal’s season ended with Chelsea castoff Kai Havertz establishing himself as “The Guy” up front, so it’s only natural that most football reporters are pointing to the striker position as Arsenal’s first big splash of June.

Naturally, I kid. It’s understandable enough why Arsenal might be looking to add one more to the attacking corps, particularly someone who’s got size and speed for days.

And in Leipzig, Germany, where footballers wear energy drink logos on their shirts, there is such a man: 21-year-old Benjamin Šeško.

Šeško set the Bundesliga ablaze this season after starting as a third option at striker (Leipzig play two together), racking up 11 goals and two assists in an 18-game (14-start) stretch from late January through the end of the season. That gave him 18 goals and four assists in all competitions for RB Leipzig, an impressive return for a young fella who started the season unable to legally buy alcohol in the good old US of A.

This was Šeško’s first season at RB Leipzig after three at sister club RB Salzburg, where in three seasons from age 16 he played 39.8 90s, ending up on 21 goals (2 pens) and five assists.

Šeško first joined the Red Bull family in 2019 from Slovenian club Domžale. Die Roten Bullen loaned him twice to FC Liefering in the Austrian Second League, where he scored 22 goals in 44 games before making his senior debut in 2021. And the rest is history.

The stats

Here comes Captain Obvious: Šeško’s goal output this season was very good. His non-penalty goals per 90 is 95th percentile in the Bundesliga, and only Serhou Guirassy and Harold Kane ranked higher.

Here’s his chart:

As you can see, Šeško’s 6-foot-5 stature makes him a threat in aerial duels. He’s always a threat to make a carry into the box, even if his turnovers per touch are a little iffy (pretty good first touch, though!) Šeško has never been too busy as a creator, and he’s done next to nothing to get on the chart here.

The big statistical conversation, as per usual with strikers, revolves around shooting. Šeško’s npxG:G ratio is literally off the charts, with either the best or second-best score in Germany, depending on which outfit you follow.

Did this dude ride a hot streak to stardom, and is he doomed for regression, or is he just THAT GOOD at shooting? We (I) don’t have xG data for Austria to fall back on, but here’s what I can see with my own eyes: Šeško put 37 of his 68 shots on target this season, a very good 54.4 percent. That jibes with his 48.3% on-target rate from Salzburg.

If you’ve been reading this blog for long you should know by know that xG overperformance on its own is not a bad sign. Some players are just really good shooters, and they’ll always be above xG. I tend to believe, based on what I’ve seen and read, that this player is one of those. The question will just become whether he’ll stay *this far* above his xG, scoring literally almost 2 goals for every expected goal he finds. I’d bet against that.

It’s also relevant to note Šeško averaged a high 0.17 npxG per shot this past season, which only Kai Havertz can match at Arsenal. One look at his shot chart, and you can see where this kid likes to take his attempts from.

No wonder his xG/shot is so high! So, is he getting into great positions, is he being defended poorly, is it both? That’s where some good film study comes in.

The film

For this piece, I watched back three RB Leipzig games against carefully selected opponents: Their 4-1 home win over Borussia Dortmund on April 27, their 4-1 away win over SC Freiburg (the lowest block in Germany) from April 6, and their March 6 Champions League away draw with Real Madrid. Why that CL game in particular? Because it inspired this tweet: