Finding Emile Smith Rowe's future
It's been said Arsenal's number 10 was back to his best in Dubai. But what is his best, exactly?
Arsenal’s fan division power rankings are rife with players that Gooners just can’t agree on. There’s Kai Havertz and Oleksandr Zinchenko, Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Jesus, even former players like Granit Xhaka and even Nicolas Pépé. But when it comes to looking forward and gauging who from the current squad will be key to Arsenal’s fortunes in future seasons (or even this one), I’m not sure there is anyone quite on par with Emile Smith Rowe.
The narrative of Smith Rowe is delightful. He’s an academy boy and Croydon native, and went out on loans to RB Leipzig and Huddersfield but struggled with injuries before returning for the 2020-2021 season. And it was in that campaign where the legend of ESR was truly born.
We all know the story by now: Arsenal were toothless and hopeless heading into their Boxing Day match with Chelsea, who were still good then, and a teetering Mikel Arteta finally called on ESR to start. He delivered an assist in Arsenal’s shock win, which became an inflection point for not only that season, but arguably the project in general.
ESR is said to have saved that 20-21 season, which ended with Arsenal in 8th. He finished fifth among regulars in goal contributions per 90, with one in the back of the net via shot or assist roughly once per 270 minutes. He was tied with Willian for fifth by npxG+xA per 90 as well.
As Arsenal geared up for the 21-22 season, they made permanent additions of future captain Martin Ødegaard, as well as Ben White, Aaron Ramsdale and Takehiro Tomiyasu. Arsenal put in its first top-four chase in years, and Smith Rowe finished second to only Bukayo Saka in goals and goal contributions (Martinelli had 12, like ESR).
Arsenal, of course, sputtered to fifth that season thanks to a litany of injuries in the run-in. And despite Smith Rowe breaking out, another odd thing happened: He, through injuries and sputtering form, had lost his starting left wing role to Gabriel Martinelli. Smith Rowe made just 8 of his 17 starts over the final 24 Premier League matchweeks of the season.
Of course, what’s happened since is no untold tale. Smith Rowe barely played last season and has barely gotten a sniff this season as Arsenal moved away from an overlapping left back (a better compliment for his more inside-forward-style left wing performance, heatmapped above) and rely on their left winger to provide width instead.
With Emile unable or not trusted to fill that role, he’s largely slotted in as an attacking number 8, a position he’s shown flashes in either direction, and his evaluations definitely vary, depending on who’s giving them.
And that’s sort of the point of this blog. Depending on whom you ask, Smith Rowe is either 1) too unreliable for a lead role at Arsenal, 2) too much of a misfit to be a stalwart in Arteta’s system, or option 3, which is something more akin to a spurned star who deserves his shot.
Option 1 is largely based on these past two seasons, wherein Smith Rowe has spent as much time on the trainers’ table as he has on the pitch. Option 2 is far more subjective, but it feels pretty safe to say he’s not the next great touchline winger out there.
But let’s talk about Option 3, because the holders of that opinion usually come back to the 2021-2022 campaign mentioned above.
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