Flags Fly Forever
A project is wonderful, but the point of a project is to win stuff and that window is open now
Felix or Mudryk?
That is one of the questions on Arsenal fans’ lips right now and I think that there is a pretty obvious answer to that one. It’s João Félix, (both if we are getting greedy).
I have been a proponent of Arsenal’s plan for this project, trusting the process (mostly), and buying into the pivot of buying younger players that can grow with the team.
I saw the process as follows: first, to build a team that could get back into Europe (mission accomplished last season, even if people were disappointed with how it ended), this season my threshold for success was to get back into Champions League (this looks on the way), from there it was re-establish as top 4 team and look to challenge for the title.
Arsenal are simply ahead of schedule with a window that cracked open and that should make us change some of our thoughts on how the squad is constructed.
Looking at Arsenal’s team it looks to be a well-built team, sure the midfield is exiting the peak years and that will need to be addressed at some point but outside of that basically all of Arsenal’s players are just entering the prime years for their positions.
Where the team is shortest from my view is in the attacking band. The starting talent of Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, and Gabriel Martinelli really fit together well and have been one of the strongest groups in the Premier League this season. Behind them it is less good, I am higher than most on Eddie Nketiah but he is still the best option (and he is currently in the starting lineup due to injury) of the Reiss Nelson, Fabio Vieira, and Marquinhos options that the team has for an attacking change (at least until Emile Smith Rowe is healthy).
This is something that is crying out for a player that can make an impact right away.
Arsenal have spent the second-fewest minutes in a losing position this season (just 87 minutes, 10 minutes more than Newcastle and 37 minutes fewer than Manchester City) and the fifth-fewest minutes tied (for those wondering, yes they have spent the most time winning). This type of game state has thankfully not overly tested their depth in the attacking positions needing to try and pull back points.
The way Arsenal play will help to limit these issues but as we saw against West Ham that doesn’t mean fluke things can’t happen to see the team behind. I did like that Arsenal didn’t seem to panic (there was plenty of time) but it would have been dicey if that deficit lasted into the 60th or 70th minute.
This is where having another option, especially one capable of playing across the front line would have felt like a great security blanket.
Arsenal still have at least 25 more matches (potentially more with a deep Europa League or FA Cup run, thinking there are 4 additional midweek matches isn’t crazy) to play over the next 21 weeks. That looks daunting given the depth Arsenal have in attack.
Mykhailo Mudryk might very well be the better choice for 2+ seasons from now (even if I have reservations about it) but I don’t think that the smart odds would say that for the next 5 months he is a better option for Arsenal than Félix.
The floor on how performance will translate and the adaption for a player moving from La Liga to the Premier League is so much more likely than moving from the Ukrainian Premier League (it is rated as the 13th best top-flight European League, but also below the second divisions of England, Germany, Spain, France, and Italy. Even this probably overstates the true strength of the League which has seen an understandable outflow of talent due to the Russian invasion).
Felix is also a pretty flexible player (tho mostly favors starting from the left playing as a second striker for Atletico). You can get a deeper dive in here:
There are no risk-free or sure things in transfers, I just see Arsenal as the closest they have been to a Premier League title since 2015-16 and would hate to have this window of opportunity not exploited.
This might be a dumb move for the 2024-25 team but flags fly forever.
Week 18 Premier League Odds
Brighton vs Arsenal
Arsenal are going to have a tricky New Year’s Eve match. Brighton always seem to play Arsenal tough, Arsenal haven’t won at the Amex since December 2020, with the matches all ending up incredibly close. Since Brighton has come back to the Premier League the record is Arsenal 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 Brighton wins, the xG is about the same with Arsenal producing 13 to Brighton’s 10.7.
Last year’s match was one of the worst performances that Arsenal produced all season, with Brighton suffocating Arsenal and limiting them from advancing the ball at all. In that match Arsenal had just 110 touches in the final third (6th fewest) and 13 touches in the box (4th fewest), it has stuck in my memory as a horrid moment and had me ready to go full #ArtetaOut.
This season Brighton are again looking good not really missing a beat with a change of manager. They come into this match as the 8th best team in my model with stats to match that looking like a good all-around team.
Arsenal will be the favorite but this will be a stern test.
The problem of choosing between Mudryk and Felix is the near term. If Arsenal truly believe he’s this elite, buying now at 60M+ is more prudent than waiting until the summer, when both Liverpool and United are reportedly more willing and able to spend.
But that gets back to the club’s evaluation, which given their mixed - at best - track record is an issue.
They don’t want to get into a bidding war now, even if you think the Chelsea rumors are just a smokescreen, and certainly can’t afford one in the summer.