Fulham vs Arsenal: The Debrief

A tough draw for Arsenal

There is no way to sugar coat this one, a December performance away to Fulham has again put the Arsenal season in the tipping point to being over.

Last year the team responded by going on an impressive run of performance to come within a few bounces of winning the title. This season they will require something similarly heroic if they want to be within shouting distance of the title again.

This is the bad breaks that Arsenal early in the season biting them again.

This was not a bad performance. This is a performance that gets you three points most of the time. Sometimes the team scores from their first shot against you and you miss the chances and a close offside goes against you.

Normally you shake your head and move on, but because of what came before this, it is so hard to do that. This feels like an existential threat to the season because it probably is for the team.

98 - The maximum points Arsenal can win this season

88 - The average points needed to win the title in the last run of my simulation

That leaves 10 points dropped the rest of the way to hit the average points total for a title. It is not impossible, but it is looking increasingly improbable to happen. The team must take it one game at a time and try and accumulate as much as possible but the window this season is closing and the margin for being footballed is used up.

Fulham vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Fulham vs Arsenal: The Debrief

12 - Shots for Arsenal in this match, their 8th highest total in the Premier League this season. Arsenal were averaging 14.4 before this match.

6 - Shots from open play for Arsenal in this match, this is tied for 10th highest this season. Arsenal were averaging 10.4 before this match.

2.0 - Arsenal’s xG in this match, this is the 6th highest total this season. Arsenal were averaging 1.96 before this match.

4 - Big chances for Arsenal in this match (0 from open play, that counted). Arsenal were averaging 3.3 before this match.

Looking at this match and it is hard to call it anything else but weird. Arsenal dominated this match, more possession (67%), more territory (86%), more shots (12-2), better chances (2.0 to 0.1). If there is a measure for domination that isn’t goals. Arsenal pretty much came out as the better team here, and often by a healthy margin.

What I can’t avoid talking about too much longer is the open play question.

Arsenal managed just six shots, and about half and expected goal from their open play shots.

The non-shot xG which is based on the ball progression the team did, is a bit more reflective that Arsenal did a good job pushing the ball up the field still had this just shy of two. That is a solid total (4th highest this season in the League) but maybe not quite as high as you would want with the team chasing a must win situation down a goal or tied for the entire game.

Arsenal’s final third passing isn’t overly horseshoe of death shaped but it does feature what I think was obvious on a re-watch; the team had several nearly moments on creating from open play but the run was just off, or the control let the player down, or the pass just missed, or the defender just got a touch on it.

That turned a lot of these opportunities into red lines rather than navy lines leading to shots on the Fulham goal.

Taking out the passes that didn’t go into the area around the box it become even more stark. Arsenal completed less than half of these passes, they are hard to complete but even here this is well below expected for the passes Arsenal attempted.

Many of the misses ended up being crosses and yes, many of these did go out for a corner (Arsenal had six in the match) but it is still tough and valid to talk about this. 3 of 19 crossing, generating one shot isn’t great.

Just 21 non-cross deep completions puts this right on the average and in this match where they are chasing the match is a tough way to put the defense under enough pressure to ensure scoring.

Longer Term Open Play xG Creation issues

Arsenal have gotten by with a good but not elite attack from open play now for two and half years. In 2024 during Arsenal’s excellent run, the team pushed above good but the overall numbers were flattered by a purple patch of finishing, the team still looked like a good open play attacking team.

The attack as a whole has remained at a title level with ELITE set play numbers but the output from open play could not be classified as any more than just good.

This year, it might be a bit tougher to call the open play attack good. The attacking numbers from open play are right in the middle of the pack for the Premier League. That stings.

There are mitigating factors that we all know at this point, the team has still played 10% of the minutes down a man and has been strongly effected by injury to key players. Those things help explain why, but it doesn’t really help that to date the numbers are not what you would expect for a team with title aspirations.

What doesn’t help is that even taking out the time down a man doesn’t help the attacking numbers look much better and in fact they get worse, they go from 1.19 xG per 90 to 1.14 xG from open play.

This is a problem and it is something where it is clear that this team is simply missing shots in the team.

Open play matters, it is the area where the talent probably is the biggest factor compared to coaching. There is no doubt questions here about some of the attacking talent the team has and while it is good, is it win a title as a starter good or more be a part of a title winning team good.

My last comment on this will be to touch on that attack is just a part of the open play equation, which is just a part of the overall game. The team OVERALL from open play remains strong, after some defensive wobbles where the team has given up more than you want, they have returned to form.

The difference between what you create and allow is more important that purely looking at just what is created and while we do want to see more and better attacking it is important that it maintains or betters the overall distance and doesn’t just come at the expense of the defending.

Defense has another strong performance

2 - Shots allowed by Arsenal, this is the fewest that Arsenal have allowed since they allowed 1 against Leicester City in February 2023. Both shots on target.

0.1 - xG allowed by Arsenal, this is tied for the lowest xG that earned the team a point this season in the Premier League.

This is again another standout performance from the defense. Fulham didn’t have many attacks after the goal, but they also didn’t have any attacks before they scored. Arsenal’s defense and overall game model of control and pushing the team back was effective here.

Fulham didn’t get much of a sniff of possession in Arsenal’s final third and made just one pass into the area 25 yards from the goal with that possession.

It isn’t really the story here and it sucks that this has the blemish of a goal against it but the clamps have started to come back for what Arsenal are doing to opposition teams.

Do Arsenal have too many of these types of games?

169 - The number of Premier League games where the xG difference between the two teams was 1.8 or larger going back to the 2022-23 season. (I used that cut off as the time since Arsenal have been this level of good.)

26 - Times Arsenal have had a game that matches these criteria according to Stathead from FBref (Use code CannonStats for 10% off a yearly subscription). This is the second most over that period, one fewer than Manchester City and two more than Liverpool.

25 - Wins for Arsenal in these games, with 0 losses. The one draw was the match we are analyzing now.

2.9 - Points per match in these games. This is just fractionally behind Manchester City who have 26 wins and 1 draw

There does not appear to be anything especially systemic with the way Arsenal play to invite these types of games, where they create a big chance advantage but fail to win. Arsenal have been especially good at turning these performances that deserve three points, into three points under Arteta.

Even relaxing the criteria down to just +1.5 xG difference doesn’t really change things for Arsenal, they have had 34 of these matches and won 32 of them, drawing twice.

Every match, I post the “Deserve to win Meter” it is a bit of a fun little visualization I made inspired by something that was done for NHL Hockey but tries to capture how often based on performance a team will win, draw, or lose.

For this match, it wasn’t quite as generous as the record of accomplishment Arteta and Arsenal have but it still shows that this was a pretty big match where variance bit Arsenal.

Jesus looks finished

1 - Pass completed, 1/6 overall (he was expected to complete between 4 and 5 here.

0 - Shots

0 - Key passes

0 - Touches in the box, with more touches in the middle third than the final third

0 - Progressive passes received

It really bums me out to be writing this. I have held out hope for probably longer than was warranted that Jesus would be able to rebound. I had written him down from a starter level but held stock that he could still provide an impact as a depth option and it is more and more looking like his injuries have made it so that player is gone.

He will probably still be able to bring it in flashes but I would be very surprised if he ever was able to put more than a few matches together where he still looked like a good or even above average Premier League forward anymore.

Havertz looks gassed

This one is tied to above. Havertz is a player with flaws but he has been a good striker for Arsenal since talking this role as his full-time assignment. In this match he looked like he was ground down by the burden of playing this with no rest and the things that are a worry (namely open play shot production) really came to the forefront again.

3 - Shots, just 1 from open play, for total of 0.5 xG

5 - Touches in the box

5 - Progressive passes received

0 - Key Passes, his assist came on a play that was classified as a shot rather than a pass.

88% - Passing on 15 of 17 attempts

1 - Progressive pass

4 - Times lost possession (2 mis-controlled passes and 2 time dispossessed)

There is no doubt that Havertz works hard but it does sometimes leave you wondering if there is more that can be gained from the position, even if that is just to be able to get him a break from having to be the focal point every three days.

Some Positivity to end things on

It is easy to get down after dropping points and get mad.

The team however is still very good. That doesn’t help make what we have seen this season less frustrating but it does help me to continue to feel positive right now about the future of the team.

This was also a plot that I had been watching before this match and didn’t always love what it showed but at the close game state you can see Arsenal also start to show that this is a strong team and that the outlook should be positive for what they are capable of.

It’s a quick turn around to Monaco in the Champions League. More as the matches continue to come in rapid succession.