Fulham vs Arsenal: The Debrief
Arsenal continue to roll and slay some demons along the way
Arsenal had a not so dissimilar match away at Fulham last season and that ended in a disappointing draw.
Over the last couple of years, Fulham (and teams like them) have been able to frustrate Arsenal breaking the game up with their physicality and not giving Arsenal any space by staying compact in the middle of the field.
They tried to trot out these same tactics again and Arsenal were able to overcome them coming away with a well-earned victory and an extra two points compared to what they got last season.
The performance fell short of perfect, but Arsenal now show more solutions against familiar low-block strategies.
Fulham vs Arsenal: The Graphics
Fulham vs Arsenal: The Debrief
3 - Teams that have gone to Craven Cottage and created 1.8 non-penalty xG or more going back to the start of the 2024-25 season. It’s Arsenal (twice), Manchester City (final match of the season last year with nothing to play for), and Bournemouth (December 2024 in a 2-2 thriller).
Fulham under Marco Silva would not be mistaken for a juggernaut but they have been a tough and competent team, especially at home. They don’t make things easy for teams and seem to sell out favoring stopping you, versus trying to create their own chances.
This Arsenal performance did not dazzle, but some of the reaction to the match seems to be a bit out of balance.
16 - Shots for Arsenal in this match, this is the 5th time this season that Arsenal have this number or better. Arsenal also took 12 shots from open play here. Ideally, we would still see a bit more from open play, but this is pretty solid.
1.9 - Expected goals for Arsenal in this match. This is now the 5th time this season that Arsenal have had 1.9 or more non-penalty xG in a match this season. After a slow start to the season, Arsenal have climbed to 5th in total xG this season.
45 - Touches in the box for Arsenal in this match. This is the second most that Arsenal have had this season and it is now three matches in a row where the team has hit 40 or more touches in the box.
278 - Arsenal’s total touches in the box this season, the most in the Premier League this season
Here is how this match against Fulham compares to what Arsenal have done this season.
It’s not spectacular but this was a pretty darn good overall performance. If Arsenal were to play at this level away against maybe all but the top 6-7 teams they will have put themselves in a strong position to win those matches, often by two plus goals.
It probably would have made us feel better if Arsenal had gotten a second goal and that would have probably been a fairer reflection of the chances created but sometimes that is how this funny old game goes.
What was able to make the single goal scored stand up as enough to win was another excellent day from Arsenal as a defensive unit.
It wasn’t perfect, with the first 20-25 minutes looking a bit shacky and sloppy but after the team grew into the match, Arsenal put the clamps on tight and allowed Fulham nothing.
After the 30th minute here is what Fulham did:
4 - Shots, 0 shots within the “danger zone”
0.2 - xG for those 4 shots
42 - Final third pass attempts
11 - Touches in the box
They could not generate any threat and that is even with Arsenal being willing to cede possession to Fulham a bit more after scoring.
The shot map from this match is a thing of beauty and is another in what is turning into an incredibly impressive campaign for the defense.
That gives a good transition into making a statement that it is probably too early in the season to be getting this bold but let’s go for it anyway…
Arsenal could challenge the best ever defenses this season
3 - Goals allowed for Arsenal this season in all competitions (All have come in the Premier League, with 0 allowed 3 matches in the Champions League and League Cup)
5 - Clean sheets out of 8 Premier League matches, and 8 out 11 total matches played this season
1 - Goal allowed from open play this season
Arsenal are off to a flying start defensively this season and while we shouldn’t get too ahead of ourselves with just 21% of the season played, you can’t help but start looking at how this team stacks up compared with other great defenses of the past.
Arsenal have been a very good defensive team now for a while, but the current team is pushing this to new levels, here is how things look for the ten match moving average for open play xG allowed and goals allowed.
Arsenal have touched this level for stretches in the recent past but right now it does feel like there might be something special with this defense compared to those teams. Outside of the first match of the season against Manchester United they have held every opponent under 10 shots and to lower than 1 expected goal.
It isn’t just that they have suppressed shots, but they have limited what their opponents have been able to do creating good opportunities to shoot.
5 - Big chances allowed by Arsenal, that is just 0.6 per match. The next best is Newcastle with 7 allowed. Arsenal have allowed 0 big chances in 5 of 8 matches this season.
This has meant that not only do Arsenal lead the league with the fewest shots allowed this season, but they also lead the league with the lowest average shot quality against. This is a bit of a unique place to be with teams often facing a bit of a trade-off between keeping teams from taking shots and keeping the average quality low.
Here is what it looks like in the FBref xG era for the Premier League with the current Arsenal team highlighted.
There is still room for Arsenal to allow fewer shots this season, but they are in a record-breaking level for the average quality of shots faced and are doing so pretty comfortably at 10-15% better or teams with similar volume and 6% better than the previous low for average shot quality (Tottenham 21/22).
If Arsenal are going to challenge the records, they will need to maintain their current form and that is certainly going to be a challenge. Here is the current Arsenal goals allowed compared to what Chelsea did in their record setting season.
Even at just 3 goals allowed, Arsenal are behind what Chelsea had done at this same stage. Arsenal are currently on pace for a bit more than 14 goals so it’s not out of the question even though they are a bit behind Chelsea’s numbers.
The record for clean sheets in the Premier League is the 04/05 Chelsea team with 25, the 1998/99 Arsenal team was just behind them with 23 clean sheets and holds the record for Arsenal (in a 38-match season). This team is on pace for 24 clean sheets.
My simulation model does keep track of total goals allowed for each run and right now the number of times that Arsenal finish with 15 or fewer goals allowed is 24 times out of 10,000 so it still looks like a remote probability. The average goals allowed by Arsenal in my latest simulation is 27.3, with the majority of simulations falling between 24 and 30 goals allowed.
It will be something to watch as we get a bit further down the road.
The Eze as ‘10’ doesn’t quite work in this match
29 - Pass attempts with 25 completed for an 86.2 completion % and 103.8% efficiency
3 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed
9 - Forward passes attempted (31%)
2 - Progressive Passes completed
1 - Box Entry Pass completed
1 - Key Pass for 0.04 xA
1 - Shot (blocked) for 0.02 xG
1 - Dribble completed out of 2 attempted
1 - Progressive Carry
7 - Progressive Passes Received
1 - Touch in the box
0 - Tackles
0 - Interceptions
1 - Ball Recoveries
While I think that the team overall played well in this match, I think that there is some fair frustration in that Arsenal did not do particularly well at turning their overwhelming final third possession into dangerous shots or clear-cut opportunities.
A good portion of this is that Fulham do a good job of limiting these kinds of opportunities, they are 6th this season in limiting open play big chances, 6th in open play xG allowed and 7th in open play shots allowed. In this match they did focus almost entirely on limiting what Arsenal could do in the final third vs coming out and engaging Arsenal higher up the pitch.
Here is what Eze did in the final third with his passing in this match.
He was trying to drop into pockets and find space, but it wasn’t really there given the defensive tactics of Fulham. That meant that he was often quite peripheral to the play and he ended up with just the 6th most passes attempted in the attacking portion of the pitch.
In this match, he just did not have the overall impact that you would have liked to have seen from him in that position. This is a new problem for him to solve, given that his time with Crystal Palace did not feature lots of reps against teams sitting back and denying space to this same extent.
Saka is simply amazing
I could list out a bunch of stats here as is the usual mode of operation, instead I think that there is one graphic that I can post that really nails things here.
This is the goal probability added for the match which tells us how the actions from each player change the chances of the team scoring/conceding overall for the match. I like this stat because it helps give more relative impact for the different things that a player does and helps to uncover things that may not have ended up on the score sheet.
This is a good illustration of how goals and assists, while incredibly important can cover up the impact of a player. There is no doubt that Saka was by far the best player on that pitch (as he is most days he steps on to the field) and this stat and graphic help capture just how much he was lapping his teammates here.
Simply amazing and I appreciate being able to watch him play for Arsenal.