Havertz hasn't quieted the doubters...

... Not that you should have expected him to at this point in the season

It has been only 2.5 matches (I am calling the Community Shield half a real match) and from my perch, it feels like the fan opinions on Kai Havertz have only calcified further. The battle lines are drawn and both sides of the opinion brigades are dug in looking to cherry-pick stats and clips to prove their point. It is made worse with rival fans (especially Chelsea) looking to snipe from the sidelines.

The headline here is a little on the provocative/clickbait side but it just feels like everything around Havertz is only to the two extremes right now and people are really trying to make bold conclusions about him already, or even worse looking to confirm what they already thought before. Some of that is probably the worsening Twitter culture where outrage is what drives engagement and views, made worse with ad share incentives, with Havertz one of the players most affected.

To put my cards on the table, my view on Havertz is that I see the vision that the club is going for with this signing. He is a player that was highly touted as a potential generational talent is a hybrid 8/9/10 with the flexibility to even play wide. He played well at Chelsea but below the very high expectations that came with the hype and fee when he signed. He also played under a number of different systems and coaches where it didn’t always seem like there was a clear plan for how to get the best out of him.

When he came to Arsenal I hoped he could be a bargain signing on unrealized upside in a side that had a more clear plan how to utilize his skills. That didn’t quite work out with him coming in with a big transfer fee (and rumored wages to match) and that has made this a bigger commitment and one with more scrutiny around him. This made me look at the deal a little more skeptically but I am an optimist at heart hoping for the best with any signing and have come in with an open mind.

Here is what I wrote with one of the main takeaways about the potential transfer in June:

I would be thrilled if Arsenal could sign him for 40m, that would be a bargain on the Martin Odegaard level. If the deal was at 50m I would still be quite happy and feel that there is still money left over to do other business in the market. If it started creeping past that I would get less and less excited.

He is after all a player that still feels like a project and far from the finished article with the risk that comes with it (and almost certainly really big wages). I will take a wait-and-see approach but the major takeaway from this is that Havertz is unique player that would really help Arsenal mix and match, plus rotate players that little bit more.

How things look thus far

We are going to delve into serious small sample size territory so everything remains very tentative and no conclusion territory but I think there is some interesting things to take away from his start.

Looking at Havertz compared to Granit Xhaka from last season and he comes out looking quite favorable.

We need another 7-10 matches to really do this right but the early returns look like a player coming and replicating at least somewhat close to the Granit Xhaka production from last season.

I think there is also still an upside to see from Havertz as his teammates get used to the runs and spaces that he takes up. There have been a number of occasions already this season where he has found little pockets in dangerous spots but the pass hasn’t found him.

I am still pretty confident that he has a better chance of matching or surpassing what Xhaka did last year in attack.

The early tactics, especially in matches where Arsenal have a big possession edge has given Arsenal a new way to get an extra player in the attacking zones.

He is far from a finished product here at Arsenal but I think there are positive signs, even if the final grade on this move is in doubt.

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Week 3 Premier League Odds:

Another exciting week of Premier League action, starting with some Friday action.

Compared to the betting odds, my model is favoring the draw or Luton win which really surprises me (I am not encouraging anyone to make any bets off of this). I think part of this is that getting a feel for how good Chelsea are is still really hard, they looked decent against Liverpool but also didn’t create as much considering the midfield Liverpool started, they created enough against West Ham but couldn’t convert and then had a bad penalty. I think we need a few more weeks with them.

Early Saturday morning so I will probably skip it. I am a little interested in both of these teams with new coaches.

Of the 7am (3pm) kickoffs I am obviously picking Arsenal vs Fulham. It will be another new lineup for Arsenal and I can see it going a number of different ways.

Brighton get another pretty generous matchup to start the season and continue to help build the hype around them. West Ham will be tough to break down and a menace on set plays and will give an interesting test.

For the Sunday early slot I think the Burnley vs Villa game is the more interesting one. Villa have been blown out by Newcastle and blew out Everton, so what to make of them is anyone’s guess. Burnley have played just one match and it wasn’t one that I expected to learn a lot in so this will be interesting.

As for City, I will only care if there is a chance of a result in the last 5 minutes.

The final match of the weekend is another one that I think we will try and draw major conclusions from. Liverpool are in a weird state where they are still considered by many to be somewhere between 2nd and 3rd favorite for the title right now but have some pretty obvious flaws in their team.

Newcastle are potentially being severely underrated given how strong they were last year.

It’s going to potentially help set some narratives for the week ahead.

🤠Yee Haw enjoy the weekend everyone.