How impactful is Arsenal's PL form?

The Gunners are sputtering in league play...will it matter?

Arsenal supporters are feeling pretty down about the Premier League campaign after last night’s draw against Crystal Palace, and that’s easily understandable. Even just now as I started writing, I initially drafted the word “loss.” It didn’t feel good, and the team didn’t play well. There are literally no circumstances under which I’m happy to see poor execution on behalf of any of the players, who understandably seemed to have an eye to next week, when PSG come to the Emirates for the first leg of the Champions League semifinals.

Frustration after both Brentford and Crystal Palace, two matches you’d like to win and which fans considered some of the more winnable left on the docket, has certainly bubbled up. And I don’t think that’s wrong. But I did also found myself this morning feeling like it was still a little doomsday-ish, and I wanted to help.

Scott also updated his simulation after the game this morning, which you can see here. He still has Arsenal at 91% for second place, let alone the CL, though he noted that doesn’t account for mentally checking out.

All that considered, I’ve prepared a little something I like to call the "Bad Things Only Happen to Arsenal" sim.

This may not be the *only* scenario under which Arsenal fall out of the CL, but it feels, subjectively, the most likely to happen (for lack of a better word). Here’s how the table looked once I ran that set of results:

This is something that doesn’t feel too far afield when your side seems to be wandering through league play and you see some others scooping up points like they’re going on sale. It’s also easy to convince yourself that Arsenal have nothing to play for, while the rest have everything to play for, which is something I’ve run across a few times the last couple of weeks.

But is this really likely? That’s the question. And it’s worth asking. To fully break this down, let’s look at all the goofy or even slightly unlikely things that would have to occur to get us here:

Matchweek 34

There’s nothing especially fluky or odd going on here, but it’s important to note that this is the Premier League, and results simply do not happen as expected in the vast majority of weeks. Even looking back to the last couple of weeks, many fans must have been surprised by Newcastle’s three-goal loss to Villa, Forest’s loss at home to Everton, Chelsea’s home draw to Ipswich, you get the point.

All matches in that sense will have some element of “maybe something unexpected happens here,” but from a pure probability standpoint the one that stands the greatest chance of going sideways for an Arsenal adversary is probably the Thursday night clash between Forest and Brentford at City Ground, which I’ve entered as a Forest win.

Since the New Year, Forest are fourth bottom in expected points, while Brentford are 11th. The Bees’ performances against Brighton, Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle also all point to them as a challenge against even a capable side. So, this is not a given three points. Changing this result from a win to a draw alone would drop Forest to sixth, and Arsenal rise into fifth.

Out-of-form Chelsea couldn’t possibly drop points to Everton, could they? Eyeball emoji.

Matchweek 35

Some things could go wrong here!

• Aston Villa host Fulham this week. I’ve got it as a win, but I’ve also got Villa beneath Arsenal on the table.

• Newcastle visit Brighton. Many people would gift these points to the Magpies, but their away form in league play has been shaky of late to wonder whether this is a given. Since February, they’ve lost three of five away from St. James Park, with the only wins at West Ham (not an especially good outing from them) and Leicester. They looked rough at Villa, does it continue here? Another one where anything less than a win slingshots Arsenal up the above table.

• I have Chelsea beating Liverpool in this sim. Make of that what you will.

• Forest visit Palace this week. I have this as a Forest win. See bolded text regarding Forest’s results above.

• The opponents have been bad, and the underlying numbers have not been impressive, but Wolves could come into their match at the Etihad this week with six wins in a row. Do they ride that to a shock result? Who knows!

• It’s also important to note that, in keeping with the pessimistic theme here, I’ve entered Arsenal home to Bournemouth (likely a rotated group of Gunners) as a loss. A draw, all else being equal, does move them to fifth.

Matchweek 36

More potential for point-droppage here.

• Villa are at Bournemouth. See Villa bullet above.

• I have Chelsea winning at Newcastle here in order to get both above Arsenal. Newcastle beating Chelsea does change the note above regarding the Newcastle-Brighton result and how it affects Arsenal’s standing, but Chelsea do need both of these results as it stands to stay ahead of Arsenal. Both a loss or a draw here drop them below Arsenal on Goal Difference.

• I have Liverpool beating Arsenal at Anfield. Likely? I don’t know! Arsenal may feel particularly motivated by a chance to show their true standing against the (probably) official league champs here, and won’t have any real Champions League scheduling difficulties regardless of what’s happened in Paris four days earlier. Even a draw on its own changes the above table.

Matchweek 37

There’s another match here that fans have largely penciled in as a “0” for Arsenal, but with a CL final still two weeks away (touch wood they make it), Arsenal are likely to go strong with only injury-based changes here. Newcastle are another side against whom Arsenal may feel they have a score to settle, so again I wouldn’t be so quick to rule anything out. I have entered this as a Newcastle win, so again please note that even a draw shifts things around a lot.

Others:

• Chelsea host United. Never say never.

• Forest at West Ham presents at least some chance for surprise.

• City home to Bournemouth is one that Arsenal fans certainly would not take for granted.

Matchweek 38

This, the big day, is the one result I’ve given Arsenal in this scenario. Was that a mistake? Time will tell! Here’s what others are up to in this sim:

• City are at Fulham, which is a tricky fixture

• Villa are at United

• Newcastle host Everton, which feels like a likely win, but you’d have said that about Liverpool or Forest home to Everton, no?

• Chelsea visit Forest. I have Chelsea winning to make the above table work. Once again, and say it with me, EVEN A DRAW HERE CHANGES EVERYTHING ABOVE.

One other piece of perspective that might help - I’ve encountered the point of view that losing places in the league could cost Arsenal money and momentum in terms of the project. The latter is of course more difficult to rebut (and I generally don’t agree) but on the money note, here are prize awards from last season:

The awards based on actual finish are in the “Merit Payment” column. So you can see that Arsenal earned £30.4 million from the UK portion of the Merit Payment and £21.4m from the international portion for a total of £51.8 million. Fifth-place Spurs, for contrast, won £27m and £18.1m, which adds to £45.1m. So with the data we have available to us, we can say that second to fifth most recently cost about £6.7m in prize money.

On the momentum front, is there anything there? I for one think the players are wise enough to know that, should they drop below second, it would be because of the focus on the CL. Sterling started last night, and many players were in first and second gear all night. Zinchenko and Trossard started against Ipswich, while Tierney, Jorginho, Zinchenko, Trossard and Nwaneri all started against Brentford. This was not a side that was being fielded to get maximum points from those 9, simply put.

Meanwhile, the club who is about to lift the trophy dropped 10 points on City and 9 on Arsenal from March 1 through the end of last season, falling from first to third in that span. They didn’t gain any “momentum” over the summer, either, signing … only Chiesa, who barely plays. And they’re fine.

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Listen, am I going to sit here in my analytics ivory tower and tell you bad things aren’t going to happen from here? Of course not. But I hope going through it piece by piece is at least a little helpful in terms of perspective. Hopefully until the next one, we’re able to dial back on the worry dial, even if only slightly.