How the VAR judgment calls have gone for Arsenal - 2024/25

Reviewing and keeping track of how the calls have gone for Arsenal for the 2024-25 season

Talking about referees and the decisions is not the most fun thing to do but it is a fact of life.

Because of this, I have decided it is good to keep a record of the most contentious calls that involve Arsenal and see how the decisions break down over the year. There is a feeling in the fanbase that things are heavily tilted against Arsenal but without tracking you’ll never know for sure; from last year’s exercise, it came out pretty close to 50/50 on the total calls, with a slight lean toward Arsenal getting fewer calls in their direction.

It seems like people liked the tracking so I am back doing it again.

For this, I will generally use Dale Johnson’s VAR report as the basis for tracking if things rise to the level of contentious and if others are missed I will add them and note that it was not in the report. I will use what he says and give my thoughts while tracking the overall decisions.

Contentious Call Tracking:

Calls for Arsenal: 10

Calls against Arsenal: 23

VAR overturn: 3 (1 sent to monitor, 1 for an incorrect offside call)

VAR Stay with the on-field call: 28 (5 were not reviewed by VAR for various reasons)

Expected calls for Arsenal on my gut feeling: 14.5 vs 10

Expected calls against Arsenal on my gut feeling: 18.5 vs 23

Net Value of decisions: -4.22 goals

updated 1/27/2024

Wolves 0-1 Arsenal

Possible red card overturn: Foul by Lewis-Skelly on Doherty

In the 43rd minute after an Arsenal corner kick, Wolves have a chance to break and attack Arsenal. Myles Lewis-Skelly looks to make a professional foul and trip Matt Doherty to stop the counter attack in the defensive half before things can get more dangerous.

Michael Oliver judges that his contact on the Wolves player was high, excessive and dangerous, showing him a straight red card.

From Johnson in the VAR Review:

When Lewis-Skelly makes the challenge, he does so with absolutely no chance of winning the ball and it's a deliberate attempt to take out an opponent. Oliver, who was very close to the incident, believed the initial contact was studs to Doherty's shin as the Wolves player was running. These two aspects made Oliver believe the line was crossed and that the tackle could endanger the safety of an opponent.

Was the VAR too quick to support the on-field call once they had the freeze-frame image? After all, in isolation this appears damning -- but such pictures usually do, because it removes all the context of force and intensity. It gives the impression of serious foul play rather than a trip, which was a more accurate assessment.

While PGMOL would like to back Oliver and the VAR's decision, a yellow card is far more in keeping with how the game is refereed in the Premier League. Lewis-Skelly gets a straight red card for a tackle that usually only results in a yellow, and would never be upgraded to red on review, then you have to accept there are going to be questions about consistency.

I have been critical of Johnson in the past, but I think his summary and analysis here is fair and well done.

I think his calling out of focusing on the freeze frame is correct, any contact in a freeze frame can look bad but misses how much force was used and how dangerous the play actually was.

Here is what the laws of the game say about serious foul play:

SERIOUS FOUL PLAY: A tackle or challenge that endangers the safety of an opponent or uses excessive force or brutality must be sanctioned as serious foul play. Any player who lunges at an opponent in challenging for the ball from the front, from the side or from behind using one or both legs, with excessive force or endangers the safety of an opponent is guilty of serious foul play.

I find it hard to believe that you can watch the video of the trip and think that it was either “excessive force or brutality” or was “endangering the safety of an opponent”.

MLS doesn’t fully plant his foot nor was the force enough to stop the Wolves player from taking the next step beyond being slightly knocked off balance.

This is a pretty classic example of a professional foul to stop a break that is given as a yellow card. I would rate this as maybe generously a 5% chance of being called a red card. A red card in the first half is a big penalty and was worth a net -0.8 in goals for Arsenal and this is a -0.76 goal decision against Arsenal.

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Arsenal 2-2 Aston Villa

Possible handball: Havertz when scoring

In the 87th minute with the score tied, Arsenal were putting Aston Villa under pressure. Mikel Merino took a shot from outside the box and it comes off of Kai Havertz who deflects it into goal. It is initially given as a goal but after VAR review it was called back for a handball.