How well does the first 10 games predict the rest of the season?

Using data from the 2001-02 to 2019-20 seasons to figure out the relationship between the first 10 matches and the final 28 matches of a season.

This question came up in the Arsenal Vision Discord (it is a fun place to chat, consider joining the Patreon to get access!) about how well does points per game over the first 10 matches predict how a team will finish the season.

To go about answering this I pulled data from the 2001-02 to 2019-20 seasons and took a look at how things turned out.

Not surp…