It could be another tough summer for sales for Arsenal

Arsenal have a pretty long list of deadwood they would like to move on, getting fees for them could be tough

With Arsenal out of the Champions League and the League looking less likely (although not nearly as much perhaps the narrative suggests, with my model still showing it is about a 30% chance and betting odds putting it at 20%) fans’ attention is turning towards the transfer market understandably.

Looking at the squad there are several players that look likely to be available to move, but it could be another summer where the valuations come in lower than expected. I think that there is a disconnect between what could be possible and what is more likely.

First is that the macro level looks to be moving into a more restrained period of transfer spending.

The continental teams still seem to be lagging behind the Premier League with no new major influxes of money from TV for these leagues, so outside of a handful of super teams looking to get a maximum transfer fee seems improbable.

Saudi Arabia is still a wild card here, they were at the point where most teams were close to the maximum number of foreign-born players but have raised the cap from 8 to 10 for next season. What is unknown is if the players themselves will have more reservations about moving with several players (most noticeably Jordan Henderson) not adapting well to the move.

There is also the Profitability and Sustainability rules in the Premier League. This came in with real teeth for the first time, hitting Everton (twice) and Nottingham Forest with points deductions and seeming to have a major effect on spending in the Premier League.

It could be a blip, but looking at the winter window only 80m net spend was done in the Premier League compared to 300m on average over the previous 4 winters (730m, 210m, 85m, 190m). Is this just a bump in the road like 2021 or will it be the start of a new trend? I don’t think we will see as big of a step back like we saw in January but it is possible that more teams will need to sell to buy, and a market that is slower moving and with teams looking at driving bargains, which could effect the sales Arsenal want to make.

Players potentially on the move from Arsenal

Stats used below are updated through Arpil 19, 2024. This looks at players that are very much surplus to requirements, there might be additional players that could be on this list and if rumors start circulating about them, I will look at them in further depth.

Aaron Ramsdale - Projected sale price 20 to 30m

Ramsdale is a tough one to project a price for. I think if he has a club like Newcastle or Chelsea interested in him Arsenal could get towards to higher end of this range. If those teams aren’t interested it might end up being towards the lower range.

He’s still young, English, and I think he still has a good reputation as a keeper. This will I think mean teams will be interested and that there should be a market for the player.

Eddie Nketiah - Proected sale price 10- 20m

What is the going rate for an averageish Premier League Striker? Whatever it is that is probably what Nketiah should be in the conversation for.