It is winning time

If Arsenal are true title contenders now is the time for them to show it

There comes a stretch of every season where the fixtures seem to break just right to present the team the chance to go on a big points accumulation run. Liverpool just had this presented to them and they took advantage jumping out to a big lead. Last year it was set up nicely for Arsenal at the start of the new year.

For Arsenal in the 2024-25 season, the time is now.

Up until now, Arsenal have played the third hardest schedule, they have already played 6 or the 8 hardest matches of the season. Arsenal have played away at Manchester City, away at Chelsea, away at Tottenham, away at Aston Villa, away at Newcastle, and Liverpool at home. On top of that they had made it harder for themselves with Red Cards, Suspensions, and dealt with injuries to key players.

In the second half of the year, the daunting fixtures will be the trip to Anfield and Manchester City visiting Arsenal. Otherwise, this future fixture list looks as favorable as can be (it is rated as the easiest of any team).

That gives them a schedule ahead that if they are as good as we think they are, where they can and must run up the score and win points.

Looking until Arsenal host Manchester City on the first of February Arsenal have twelve matches, with only two of them that leave London, with none of them that they should be anything less than pretty big favorites to win.

Of these matches, on the trips to Fulham and Brighton currently have Arsenal below 60% to win from my simulation model. That is 10 matches were the model expected Arsenal to win more often than not and at a minimum get themselves a point.

Arsenal are expected to come away with between 25 and 26 points from this run (25.8 to be exact) and while that would be pretty good given that they have dug themselves a hole that is probably not good enough.

My latest run of the simulation has the Premier League title winners at a fairly low 86-87 points on average. That is still very much in the range out outcomes for Arsenal but it is pushing pretty far into the right tail for what is expected right now.

There is also a six point expected gap to Liverpool right now, and a two point gap to Manchester City. Arsenal are still rated as better than Liverpool and expected to close things up, Manchester City look vulnerable and their rating is still probably too strong not fully adapted to life without Rodri.

Arsenal only doing what is expected over this run of matches is simply not good enough and they should be targeting something higher than that.

If the expected points is between 25 and 26, I think to get themselves back into the title picture Arsenal need to make it 30 or more out of a possible 36 from this run. If the performances match the wins total that should be enough to get Arsenal back in the conversation as a true title contender for the final stretch run of the season.

I still believe that this team has the talent to win this Premier League title. It is time to see if they believe that too and can show it on the field. We believe that this team is good. It is time for them to show it.