Kai Havertz: The Debrief

Arsenal's first signing of the summer is a versatile attacker from a Premier League rival

It is probably fair and perhaps putting things lightly that this transfer has dived opinions among Arsenal fans.

This is a fascinating article to write. Usually, the players Arsenal are signing require a bit less projection and looking for a silver lining when they are signed, especially if it is for a fee that is of this size (reportedly in the neighborhood of 65 million with bonuses included). What also has made this move attract ire and dissatisfaction is that he is coming from Chelsea (helping them out somewhat of their FFP jam, but in reality that seems to be coming from their ability to unload players to the Saudi League) and that this deal seems to have gotten done at a deal that doesn’t seem like a discount while Arsenal bid for Declan Rice.

For the stats presented in this post, I will be comparing Havertz to attacking midfielder, but like many of the players Arsenal have in the team and have been linked with, the positions and role are a bit fluid and far from perfect descriptors of what they do on the field.

Kai Havertz: The Debrief

Attacking and Ball Progression Stats:

1.88 – Open play shots per 90, 63rd percentile for attacking midfielders

1.2 – Shots in prime (within 12 meters) per 90, 99th percentile for attacking midfielders

0.167 – xG per Shot, 93rd percentile for attacking midfielders

0.21 – Non-penalty goals per 90, 53rd percentile for attacking midfielders

0.41 – Non-penalty expected goals per 90, 94th percentile for attacking midfielders

1.1 – Shots on target per 90, 82nd percentile for attacking midfielders

44.3% - Shot on target percentage, 56th percentile for attacking midfielders

Havertz like Gabriel Jesus before him is causing some anxiety about his finishing. On FBRef's xG numbers they were number 1 and number 11 on xG underperformance, with Eddie Nketiah taking the number 2 spot on the list.

Unlike Jesus, this seems to be an outlier for his career rather than a persistent concern. For his career his is still slightly above his expected goals with his scoring and has roughly been in the expected margin for what I would classify as a normal finisher (they dark grey section below).

Trying to “buy low” on a bad finishing year, for a player that doesn’t have red flags as a persistent below-par finisher is a strategy that has paid off for teams in the past. Hopefully, that happens again with Havertz.

1.13 – Open play key passes per 90, 42nd percentile for attacking midfielders

0.13 – Shot Assisted xG (xA) per 90, 21st percentile for attacking midfielders

0.03 – Assists per 90, 6th percentile for attacking midfielders

2.48 – Shot creating actions (the two actions proceeding the creation of a shot) per 90, 9th percentile for attacking midfielders

Havertz's creative numbers are a little bit concerning here. You can probably discount this a bit given that he was playing in one of the worst Chelsea attacks in perhaps ever (they have never scored fewer goals in the Premier League, and you have to go back to the 1923/24 for when they scored fewer), with teammates that looked lost.

That being said, he has never really been a big player for setting up teammates, averaging less than 1.4 per 90 in all but one season (before the move to Chelsea) where he assisted 2.2 key passes per 90.

Maybe playing in a different role with Arsenal could unlock more, but I think that a more realistic expectation is that he will be a target for shots, rather than a player that is more than a secondary (or lower) creator in the attack.

1.75 – Progressive passes per 90, 90th percentile for attacking midfielders

2.29 – Deep completions (passes within 25 meters of goal) per 90, 92nd percentile for attacking midfielders

3.49 – Progressive carries per 90, 90th percentile for attacking midfielders

0.51 – Dribbles completed per 90, 94th percentile for attacking midfielders

3.87 - Turnovers (dispossessed plus miscontrols) per 90, 94th percentile for attacking midfielders

1.77 - Expected Turnovers per 90 (the number of times a player would be expected to lose the ball, based on how often the attempt dribbles and where on the field they have possession), 94th percentile for attacking midfielders

7.67 – Deep touches (within 25 meters of goal) per 90, 86th percentile for attacking midfielders

3.15 – Very Deep Touches (within 15 meters of goal) per 90, 98th percentile for attacking midfielders

7.93 – Progressive passes received per 90, 89th percentile for attacking midfielders

2.98 – Penalty box passes received per 90, 97th percentile for attacking midfielders

2.67 – Aerial duels won per 90, 97th percentile for attacking midfielders

4.72 – Aerial duels total per 90, 93rd percentile for attacking midfielders

56.5% – Aerial duel win%, 96th percentile for attacking midfielders

30.01 – Pass Attempts per 90, 21st percentile for attacking midfielders

100.1 – Pass Efficiency (the ratio of actual pass completion compared to expected pass completion, 100 is completed as many passes as expected and higher is better), 59th percentile for attacking midfielders

0.33 – xG Buildup (the total xG where he was involved in the buildup play before the final pass or shot) per 90, 65th percentile for attacking midfielders

51% – xG Chain Usage (the total xG where he was involved in the buildup play and the final pass or shot compared to the total that he was on the field for) per 90, 86th percentile for attacking midfielders

0.3 – Goal probability added (my version of an expected threat, this measures how much the actions a player did that help or hurt the team’s chances of scoring) per 90, 38th percentile for attacking midfielders

As we round out the remaining attacking and ball progression stats, I think we see a picture of a pretty good all-around player.

This also doesn’t account for playing in a dysfunctional Chelsea team, where he often (to my eye at least) looked like one of the few competent players. He has a history of generating a good volume of high-quality shots, regardless of where he starts from positionally. He is a good receiver of the ball, with excellent off ball run numbers.

Via Opta Joe on twitter

It might a little concerning that he doesn’t have great creative numbers but inside the Arsenal team I think that is okay given what Jesus, Saka, Odegaard and Martinelli bring to the table.

Defensive metrics

1.45 – Possession adjusted (I use possession adjustments to make it so that each player has the same number of defensive possession opportunities) tackles per 90, 52nd percentile for attacking midfielders

1.45 – Possession adjusted interceptions per 90, 41st percentile for attacking midfielders

1.15 – Possession adjusted blocked passes per 90, 73rd percentile for attacking midfielders

2.6 – Possession adjusted fouls committed per 90, 97th percentile for attacking midfielders (meaning he commits among the most fouls, this can be seen as both a good thing, ie he’s active and a bad thing ie he just fouls too much)

3.46 – Possession adjusted ball recoveries per 90, 8th percentile for attacking midfielders

I don’t have too much to comment on here. For a forward or attacking midfielder Havertz looks to do a fair amount of defensive work. If he were compared to midfielders (where he might play for Arsenal) this would look really bad, but that would also be a pretty unfair comparison because he didn’t play in those areas for Chelsea.

This is probably something where you have to rely on the film that shows that he seems to do an adequate amount of pressing and defensive work and that will translate to playing deeper for Arsenal.

Final thoughts

I think Havertz checks many of the boxes that Arteta and Edu have prized while building this team.

• He has positional flexibility, offering an option to play Striker, Right Wing, and the more advanced midfield positions.

• He has an excellent understanding of space and will add additional high quality shots.

• He has Premier League and Champions League experience.

• He seems to have been consistently highly rated by different coaches and able to play in different types of systems.

• He is a player that was highly rated as a teen and who is perhaps underrated with an upside that could make this deal look very good should he fulfill the promise that made him one of the most coveted players in the world.

The overall deal feels a bit higher financially than I would have hoped for. The reporting is a little vague but it appears to be a transfer that is 65 million or so all in but without much clarity of how much of that is guaranteed vs bonuses. I had hoped for a deal closer to 50-55 million with bonuses but in the end, it’s not a crazy overpay on the transfer fee.

What does look to be expensive is that this is probably paired with wages that would be well into the range of Arsenal’s attacking starters and that points to him coming in with big expectations for what impact he can make in the team.

The best case for this deal is re-finding the form that he had in his last season for Bayer Leverkusen.

Something close to this would look very good in an Arsenal team that was crying out for more attacking threat from the other advanced midfield position. I am excited to see how Arteta might be able to mix and match the different options that Arsenal will have in their front line with him in the team. This is very clearly a big bet for Arsenal but one that should help to add quite a bit of trusted quality to a team that needed that in the spots just outside of the first eleven last season.

Welcome, Kai.