Key Player Profile: Preston North End

Who will be key to Wednesday's Carabao Cup clash?

Well, Liverpool are in the rear view mirror and it’s Preston North End up next for Arsenal, whose Wednesday trip to Deepdale marks the fourth round of the EFL Cup and is likely to feature a healthy amount of rotation by the Gunners.

I’m personally all but locking in the likes of Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Jorginho and Oleksandr Zinchenko for this game, while Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly feel awfully likely to feature as well.

But what of Preston? Here’s a bit on what to expect:

The Lilywhites (what a nice nickname) are led by Paul Heckingbottom, whom Arsenal last saw as manager of Sheffield United. The Championship side have switched back and forth between three or four at the back this season, but some things have been consistent. Among them, Robbie Brady is certain to start as the widest left attacker, while Kaine Kesler Hayden is a fullback/wingback on the right. Freddie Woodman has been in goal, while Jordan Storey is key to the side’s fortunes at RCB. Ben Whiteman is likely to be the deepest midfielder and captain.

Preston so far this season are 16th in the Championship, with underlying numbers to roughly match. They’re one of the sides in the league who play with the least possession, and only Portsmouth take fewer shots per 90. They don’t concede many shots, ranking in the middle of the league, but only Watford can say their conceded shots are of equal or better value on average.

Put it all together, and you’ve got a side that’s below-average at its level, more because of its defensive shortcomings than its lack of bite in attack, though its attack hasn’t stood out either.

For my key player profile ahead of this one, I’ve landed on an attacker!

Emil Riis Jacobsen (known by some as Emil Riis) didn’t start Preston’s last cup match against Fulham, which went to PKs that lasted about a million rounds. But he’s played the fifth-most minutes among all Preston outfielders in the Championship so far, and he leads the side in total npxG+xA generated per 90 minutes in that time.

While normally I might select a key player due to their high level of performance, my selection here is more about the opposite: The forward is the standalone leader in goals plus assists for Preston, but he’s way ahead of his expected assists and significantly trailing his xG, making him the poorest finisher in the side so far. He’s had significant issues trapping and retaining the ball, and has been quite poor in aerial duels.

With Arsenal typically punished by opponents’ clinicality in their poorer results, continued underperformance by the 6-2 Dane could prove important if Preston fail to pull off a win Wednesday.

If you were looking for others to key in on for good reasons, I’d absolutely keep an eye on Storey, likely to be RCB in either a back 3 or back 4. Robbie Brady is also key to the attack but has also struggled to finish chances this season.

Ahead of Newcastle away and a hectic calendar to follow, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Arteta rotate a lot of bench players into the fold. It will be up to Arsenal’s selections to show hunger and not drift in first or second gear to put this one away and advance one round further.