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KPI October 23 Edition
The first Key Performance Indicator check of the season
I skipped doing one of these for August and September because this season the matches early in the season didn’t quite hit the level to be ready for this analysis. We are now at eight matches played and while that is still a bit small it is 21% of the season played.
Doing these posts are one of my favorites of the reoccurring type posts that I do. I think that they are really nice illustrations of where Arsenal are compared to expectations.
For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a ‘success’.
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Arsenal are tied on the top of the table, having won all but two matches, with just a couple of draws to blemish an otherwise beautiful record. It is funny because it has felt like people are disappointed with the results (the two draws felt like losses) but the team is killing it on points accumulation so far.
↗️ On this measure, Arsenal are well above my expectations
Arsenal's expected goals figures are not pretty to look at right now. I set a target of just over 2 and they are nowhere close to it. The attack has already been talked about at length and that will probably not end if things continue on their current path.
For expected goals against I set a target of lower than 1.0 and Arsenal are at beating it with a defense that has looked elite. For the overall expected goals difference, I set a target over 1.0, where Arsenal are lagging behind the goal. If the attack can pick up they should close the gap on this measure but it feels like a long way to go.
↔️On this measure, Arsenal’s results are mixed. The attack is not as good as expected, but the defense has been. Overall it has left Arsenal in a below-average area for a title challenge.
The open play shots story tracks xG (duh they are related) but not quite perfectly. Last season Arsenal already looked like a title challenger with the shots that they generated and this season they have taken a step back from that level. This is certainly tied with the worry I had already about the attack and I am willing to give a bit of time to see what happens when the full attack is healthy.
On defense, I am a little surprised how far off the metrics they are. I have been pretty happy with how well they have suppressed shots this season. I think if they play at the same level this will move where I want to see it, even if it is not there yet.
↘️On this measure, Arsenal are well below my expectations
Getting and keeping teams away from dangerous locations is an indicator that I think is very helpful and a bit of a leading indicator if there is positive or negative things to come (this is my gut not something I have looked to verify, but maybe I should).
Arsenal are getting lots of dangerous possession, it just hasn’t resulted in the shots and goals that we would hope for. It is a similar story on defense, where Arsenal have done really well at limiting opponents from getting into those same spots.
↔️On this measure, Arsenal’s results are mixed but I think on the more positive side.
Arsenal is Field Tilt FC.
↗️Overall Arsenal are above expectations
Arsenal have continued to look like one of the teams capable of challenging Manchester City in the League after the first fith of the season. They are not flying to the same extent that they were last season and there are weaknesses that are showing but if this is the minimum level for this team, it is still pretty good.
Looking at them on the weighted xG and Goals for and against, Arsenal are up in the upper right corner (aka the good corner) for the Premier League so far this season. The team has steadily climbed up the rankings with the results and are getting dangerously close to my internal title challenge goal of 25% title odds, currently sitting at 20% after the big early win against City.