Laid eggs, coincidences and trends

How worried should Arsenal be after their no-show against Wolves?

Around 3:50 p.m. local time Saturday, I was on my way to a kids’ birthday party, one of those things where the parents are asked to stay from beginning to end, and I’d drawn the short straw.

It was at that time my phone flashed with a score update…but it wasn’t one of the two or three other matches I was tracking at that time, and it wasn’t the cannon crest — it was the yellow and black wolf’s head. Arsenal 1, Wolverhampton 1.

A moment later, another flash on my phone. This time, a text from my wife, whom I’d left at home with my son, watching the game.

I probably don’t need to describe what I felt at this moment. It was already a cold day, zero degrees Fahrenheit in Minnesota, but whatever warmth was left inside my body drained out through my feet. I stopped being able to hear my daughter’s excited chatter about the party we were attending.

Thankfully, it wasn’t long before Bukayo Saka and the butt-grabbing, Kai-choking Gerson Mosquera reversed this totally and I got an elated FaceTime from my eight-year-old son, himself a huge Arsenal supporter and even bigger Gabriel Jesus fan. There was no qualified joy on his face — it was pure excitement. And for a few minutes, it was nice to revel in Arsenal doing something they haven’t done that often during the Arteta era: making a seemingly game-costing mistake and immediately making up for it.

But it hasn’t been easy to exist online as an Arsenal supporter since Saturday. Sure, Spurs lost, but Crystal Palace could’ve been up two by the time Erling Haaland nodded in City’s first goal at Selhurst Park, on just their second shot in about 40 minutes. The Citizens would go on to win 3-0, but even the second half was a pretty even .91-.99 xG, with balance still significantly favoring Palace from open play.

To some, this result seems to have kick-started the Inevitability Engine that City have run on in each of the prior two title races against Arsenal. City had now beaten Palace, Sunderland and Real Madrid in a week, after all — we’ll just forget that the prior four matches were losses to Newcastle and Bayer Leverkusen, a last-minute home winner against Leeds (sound familiar?) and a near collapse to Fulham.

On the familiar side of the fence, the grass seems to have browned at an alarming rate. Arsenal, after all, didn’t even muster a goal against one of history’s worst Premier League sides…forget that it was 1.1 to 0.3 on xG — which doesn’t count Saka’s pinpoint corner or ridiculously good cross that didn’t get touched in, nor his great cross that went down as the winner — or 3 to 1 on expected threat, 16 to 3 on shots, and so on.

This followed a one-sided win against a side in Brugges that literally pushed Barcelona to the brink, smacked up a competitive Monaco side, embarrassed Celtic, etc. Sure, Arsenal should be winning against Club Brugge, but they rotated and still handled business. They had caught a tough loss to Villa just before, but the match prior to that was an easy win over Brentford, a side which has beaten Liverpool, Newcastle and United and pushed City to its limit at the Brentford Community Stadium.

Now, I am not here to tell you what happened against Wolves was good. It wasn’t. It was lackadaisical, sputtering and largely uninspired, further sullied by Ben White’s first half injury. Sure, had Gyökeres been a touch quicker on Saka’s first-half cross across the penalty area — which was gorgeous — things may open up into an easier and more joyous win. But that’s not what happened, and so we all spent 90-plus minutes on the brink of a breakdown instead of getting the type of romp we were hoping for.

But these matches do tend to breathe life into the types of claims that make Chicken Little look cool as a cucumber, and I do think there are some here worth digging into.

The Arsenal bottle begins again

The most prevalent is that what happened Saturday is emblematic of a lack of mental fortitude that some feel has dogged Arsenal in past title charges. Winners simply don’t have these games, the logic goes, so to lay an egg like this shows a lack of professionalism and commitment needed to win The Big One.

There are a couple of ways to look at this. First, Arsenal have absolutely had these matches amid past title charges. And I’m not really talking about your Aston Villa point-droppings where there’s 2+ xG to point to but a 0-2 result on the board. I’m talking New Year’s Eve at Craven Cottage, four-shots-in-30-minutes-down-2-1 stuff. The season before had them too — Brighton at home, Everton away, either Southampton match.

But even looking through results over those two seasons, these types of matches are few and far between. In fact, Fulham might be *the* one in the 23-24 title chase. So I don’t think they’re as numerous as they are traumatic.

The other claim to examine is that this type of thing simply doesn’t happen to champions. A relatively quick stroll through the past couple of seasons shows that, while the financial doping era has reduced them, eggs do still get laid on the way to a title. Last season, for example, featured some from Liverpool even before they fizzled out toward the finish. They didn’t even break 1.0 xG in their September loss to Nottingham Forest…at Anfield. In February, they had 0.6 xG at Everton, a match they were fortunate to draw.

City seemed to hit impeccably good form in each of 23-24 and 22-23, but even then, the Perfect Club had inexplicable performances en route to winning it all. 23-24 City lost away to a Wolves side that would finish 14th, also getting genuinely flummoxed by Aston Villa in their December meeting, losing 1-0 in a score that flattered them.

The prior season, there was a three-game stretch that featured a loss to Brentford and a draw against Everton, both at the Etihad. And, mind you, I've only featured here the results where City or Liverpool dropped points. There are won matches as well, for example a 95th-minute Haaland pen to beat Fulham in ‘22, again at home. A 78th-minute Haaland pen to beat Palace at Selhurst in ‘23. An 88th-minute, 0.13-xg Rodri blast to win away to a very bad Sheffield United in August ‘23 — yes, that’s a real thing! If you don’t remember, it’s because City won, and that’s ultimately all that matters.

And that’s a good reminder — Arsenal won! Three points go on the board, focus goes to the next game.

Will City ever lose?

This is the other one that I’ve waded through a bit since Saturday, especially after the win yesterday. There’s a great deal of trauma in the base that simply relies on a belief that Arsenal will drop points at numerous opportunities from here, while City will be untouchable.

And sure, some version of that has happened in 22-23 and 23-24, but how similar are these Citizens to those? Some have said things along the lines of, “people say they’re inconsistent, but they said the same back then.” So let’s dig into that.

Through mid-December 2022, it was Arsenal-City atop the table. Arsenal had a razor-thin edge on expected points to back its five-point lead on real points. They were nearly six points ahead of expected.

Through 14 matches, that City side had conceded 1.5 xG three times and 1.0 xG five times. Arsenal, of course, lost Saliba in February and really struggled to replace him, dropping off from there.

The following season, Arsenal had a mid-December lead on City but it was built on notably less sustainable results. They were 4.5 points ahead of expected, while City were nearly two points behind.

City had again played quite well despite the third-place standing: they had conceded 1.5 xG three times through 17 games, and 1.0 just five times. In each case, you’ve got Arsenal off to a lead that the numbers don’t quite back, and City still playing quite well.

Then there’s this season. Through 16 matches, City are for the first time in these three examples, the side whose total points exceed expectations the most. This is also the lowest xPTS overperformance of the three for Arsenal.

Their attack has certainly been prolific, with 9 2.0 xG performances across these 16 games. But where City have looked different is defending — they’ve conceded 1.5 xG four times this season and 1.0 seven times. Opponents are averaging about 0.99 non-penalty xG per 90 against City, a notable jump up from the 0.87 npxG from 23-24 or the 0.78 from 22-23.

But the biggest difference between those seasons and this one actually lies on the other side of the title charge. Arsenal, for the first time, are the side overperforming the least rather than the most. They were conceding about 1.0 npxG per 90 in 22-23, versus the roughly 0.6 today. And while the defense was similarly good in 2023-2024, that side’s fifth and sixth defenders were Jakub Kiwior and Takehiro Tomiyasu, versus today’s Hincapié and Lewis-Skelly (for now, we won’t mention Mosquera and White). After Rice and Ødegaard, the midfield options included a Partey who played fewer than 800 league minutes, Jorginho, Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira. Today, there’s Zubimendi, Eze, Merino, Nwaneri and Nørgaard.

And ironically, the thing that Arsenal fans so fear at the moment — injuries — were largely nonexistent in that 23-24 charge to a five-point lead. They’ve been prevalent this time around. Arsenal only have five players who’ve suited up for 70 percent of Premier League minutes at this point — Rice, Zubimendi, Timber, Saka, Calafiori. In 23-24, they finished the season with seven playing at least that proportion, multiple of which were much higher.

Though the fan narrative is focused on the injuries piling up and getting worse, things have actually been moving in a better direction of late. Ben White’s injury is a thorn in the club’s side, as is Mosquera’s, but the past two weeks alone have featured the returns to action of Ødegaard, Saliba, Gyökeres and Gabriel Jesus. What little information there is out there points to Gabriel and Kai Havertz each returning either late this month or early next, which could mean both are back in less than a handful of Premier League matches. After a stretch where the club played seven matches in 20 days, this holiday period will actually offer something of a respite, with six matches in the 20 days from December 20 through January 8, one of which is the cup fixture with a tired Crystal Palace. From there, the remaining six January matches will offer at least two significant chances to rotate, with Portsmouth and Kairat both on the schedule.

Variance and sure things

As you ponder the questions that will persist throughout what remains of this season, there are a few that will define the title race. And to be honest, I think they may favor Arsenal a bit more than some fans let on. Why do I say that?

I have touched on this in other places, including BlueSky and the podcast, but this 16-game opener has featured a reliance on absolutely red-hot form from Erling Haaland — 9 goals in 6 PL matches at one point, none penalties. As I’ve said, Haaland is the one person who conceivably could continue that, but it’s unlikely that he does at that level forever. Even after his brace Sunday, the Norwegian talisman had scored 6 in 8, which is still amazing but far off that ridiculous pace from before. With something like 60% of chances going through Haaland, how much can City afford him to slow down while still winning?

The other thing that this City start has featured: Top, top form from Jeremy Doku. He’s literally never played this well, and there is no guarantee that will continue. All to say, as I’ve said before, that if I were on the side of two players playing their absolute best, I’d want that to be a time when I’d built a lead rather than came out a couple of points behind.

The flip side: while Arsenal as a team have performed well overall, it’s more than fair to say some have not been their best. The leaders in goal contributions include Mikel Merino and Leandro Trossard. Jurrien Timber has scored numerous times! Meanwhile, Havertz has not played, Ødegaard just returned, and historically impeccable finisher Viktor Gyökeres is trailing his xG. Eberechi Eze has largely struggled to contribute much of note in the attack.

To be clear, there are no guarantees in life, particularly in transfers. But in cases where questions along the lines of “what if the City midfield switches on?” are counted as near-inevitabilities, it’s at the very least fair to ask the same about Arsenal’s two signings worth £140m, both of whom have long track records of producing differently than they have to date.

Gyökeres didn’t look great in the first half against Wolves, but he was switched on for the second, and he played very well for several games running prior to his injury. Eze has been marked out of matches at times but looked active and dangerous in others. And neither has played with Arsenal’s full complement of weapons for a semi-uninterrupted stretch, which surely helps (as do additional reps in the system).

On the other side, it’s worth noting that City are down to a handful of the familiar “been there, done that” crew, with standbys like Kevin De Bruyne, Ederson, İlkay Gündoğan, Jack Grealish, Kyle Walker and their decades of collective experience gone. Will Matheus Nunes or Nico O’Reilly, or Rayan Cherki or Tijjani Reijnders, offer the same veteran calm and savvy when put to the grindstone? Perhaps! But it’s at the very least an unknown.

Nobody understands better than I do that we simply aren’t going to feel better about Arsenal’s odds at this stage until we get a definitive win, or City dropping some points. Maybe both. But we know that Arsenal are unhappy with the way they played against Wolves. And we know City didn’t exactly ride that performance to a statement of their own.

Consider this: winning every match from here would give City 100 points. Arsenal doing so would earn 102. I’m pretty sure neither of those will happen. Fingers crossed, Arsenal use what happened this weekend to fire themselves up for next weekend. We know they’ve got the talent in all phases of play to do so…and I don’t even think we’ve seen the best of them yet.