Liverpool are good, but have they also been lucky?
Liverpool are good, but have they also been lucky?
Liverpool are over performing their expected points, does that make them lucky?
I posted the graphic above on Twitter the other day and it got a pretty good response from people. One of the more common things to point out was that Liverpool are one of the bigger over-performers this season on points compared to expected points.
My expected points total here is a little different than the one that is most commonly seen on a place like Understat (my model uses both shots and ball progression non-shot xG to calculate the values) but even there they are one of the bigger overperformers (the +8.6 points ranks 4th).
I don’t like to default to calling this over or under performance luck because I think it is worth trying to dig deeper and understand more before making that call.
The first thing is to look at this team and see that they are very good.
They rank 2nd in goal difference and 3rd in xG difference. They have a very good attack; most goals and most xG. They match this with a good defense; 2nd fewest goals and the 3rd fewest xG.
They also have been remarkably consistent this season, they have had their opponent beat them on xG 7 times, but only by more than 1.0 xG once (away to Arsenal).
Looking at this you can see a few matches where they have looked less than perfect at beating their opponent but were still able to come away with points, often taking all three.
They have a few matches this season where they have taken more points than expected and one outlier section. They had a run between rounds 12 and 16 where they won 4 matches and drew 1, earning 13 points from 7.5 expected points, other than that they haven’t looked especially lucky but what it seems to me is that with just 2 losses this season, they have not had any matches that look like they were really bad beats.
A major factor in this is that Liverpool have turned a somewhat leaky and certainly not “champion” level xG allowed into very good actual goals allowed.
This first factor in this might be a bit of luck, they have allowed the 4th lowest percentage of shots faced to turn into shots on target. From these shots, they have not blocked more of them than the average team (27% vs 29% for league average) but rather just have seen the shots that are not blocked not find the target either. They have seen just 43% of their non-blocked shots hit the target, compared to 48% for the league average.
The next portion is less luck and more having good goalkeepers, they have faced 24.7 xG on my post-shot expected goals model and from that they have allowed just 22 goals to be scored (excluding penalties and own goals).
Some of this is that this team is just hard to beat and they have been perhaps a bit lucky to have a 1 goal deficit turn into a 2 goal deficit just once all season (even that required them to go down to 10 men against Arsenal)
This season is a bit like their title-winning season in 2019-20, in that year they were very good but also had fantastic sequencing of the goals scored in the match to nearly always go ahead first, or to fight back to even game state quickly.
In 19-20, that team spent just 362 minutes losing. When they were losing by 1 goal, they got back to an even-game state 7 times and only went to a 2 goal deficit twice.
This season they haven’t quite as dominant with just 36% of their minutes spent winning but they have been very good at making sure that they are not in a situation that requires them to overcome a deficit.
So are they a little lucky? Probably but they are a very good team that has taken advantage of the positive variance to the top of the table and it just might be enough to see them complete the fairy table of delivering Jurgen Klopp a farewell title.
Arsenal look to extend Jorginho
There are multiple reports that Arsenal are considering or are actively engaged with working on an extension with Jorginho.
The talks for the midfielder appear to be that has a guaranteed extra year, plus an additional option for the 25/26 season. This is similar to the deal he signed when he came to Arsenal from Chelsea signing on for one and a half guaranteed years plus the option for next year.
It is unclear if that option has lapsed and that is why they are working on this deal, or it is just to reward him for his performance and look to secure him further into the future. I think working on something like this would be beneficial for both parties.
Jorginho has been fantastic since joining Arsenal…
…But not without weaknesses.
What makes this partnership work is that Jorginho’s flaws are the areas that Arsenal has the players that can cover for him. He isn’t going to beat anyone in a foot race or physical duel, nor can he cover space in the middle of the field but that is much less of a problem when you are playing in front of the partnership of Gabriel and William Saliba, and even less of an issue when he plays next to Declan Rice.
What he adds with his passing is still among the best in the game. He also has the experience and ability to be an on-field coach which adds a bit of intangible value. With a young core that hasn’t been to the highest levels of the game yet like Jorginho has, it is nice to be able to turn to a player for that.
You shouldn’t add a player JUST for that, but when it is part of the package it is a nice bonus.
This deal also seems to work given that Arsenal were already likely to be looking for additional midfield depth in the summer, and having two add two players of the quality that Arsenal would require is hard an expensive. With the security blanket of a Jorginho in the team making the shopping list just one player rather than two is quite nice, especially for the quality he brings in a player that is accepting that he won’t be playing every week.
The full details of any agreement aren’t known, but unless the deal is crazily out of line with his role this seems like a good deal that makes sense for both player and team.
Round 27 Odds
It's another weekend and no early match for me to wake up to.
There is a very full slate of the 7am (3pm kickoffs) with 6 games in this time slot.
I think this for me will be one where I watch the goal rush program, it will probably have Liverpool on plus the major moments around the League.
The late kickoff is not the most exciting matchup but does have big top 4/5 ramifications.
Aston Villa have picked up a bit of a gap on Tottenham and will have another chance here to keep it going.
Sunday gives us just two Premier League matches (plus the women’s North London Derby)
I will skip the first one, with my focus on the women.
Then Sunday ends with the Manchester Derby.
This is one of the more lopsided matches that I can remember between these big teams. Manchester United are 6th in the table but this nor the betting odds really treat them with much respect here with their chances to get anything from this match.
The final game of the weekend is Arsenal taking the trip to Sheffield to face the team in last place.
Arsenal are not surprisingly a HUGE favorite here even on the road. There will be a little extra pressure to match or take advantage of what the rivals do and I am sure that the Sheffield United fans will be up for it.
Hopefully, Arsenal can start March as well as they did in February.
🤠 Yee Haw, enjoy the weekend.