Liverpool - The next cup final

Previewing Arsenal's trip to Anfield

Arsenal have a big trip to Anfield on Easter. There is a lot on the line for this match (there will be a lot on the line in pretty much every match going forward) and a bit of history to contend with too.

Arsenal have not won a Premier League match at Anfield since September 2012, a classic with goals from Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla.

The matches in between over the last 5 seasons have seen Arsenal outscored 19 to 3, with 16.4 expected goals to 4.3. There has not been less than a two goal margin for Liverpool with three thrashings of four goals.

It has not been pretty and it explains a large portion of the fanbase’s anxiety around this trip.

Because on paper this Liverpool team is a pretty far cry from their previous best. They sit in 8th place and mostly deserve that place in the table with their performances this season.

They rate as the 5th best team on this season’s performances but it is boosted by two very large wins that help cover for a team that has shown real weakness in matches this season.

The attacking numbers are good but a step below last season when they were one of the best-attacking teams in the world. That’s not too surprising given that they have had to replace Sadio Mane and seen Mohamed Salah not quite at his previous highs.

The attacking side of the ball is not really the problem but I think that there might be something in how they have had to change that could have downstream effects, which I will go into further below.

The bigger problem is on the other side of the ball.

This season is in stark contrast to what they did previously under Jurgen Klopp; they are susceptible on defense.

They are not nearly as good of a pressing team (I think losing Mane and transitioning away from Roberto Firmino are major factors in this) and that seems to have rippled throughout the team, with midfield the most obvious.

They need to put more players forward in attack to keep a similar production, leaving more space for an already older group to cover. They aren’t winning the ball back as effectively and as quickly, meaning more counterattacks to cover. They aren’t going ahead as often meaning more risks must be taken.

They have allowed their opponent to create more than 1.5 expected goals in 13 matches, last season they allowed that just 4 times. The attack has come back to earth some from last year’s team but the real problem for them is that they are really struggling to keep the ball out of the net at the same rate.

The reason that I can see behind this is that they are still a good shot-suppressing team, allowing the 4th fewest shots but they are giving up more really good shooting opportunities than they did in the past. They have only allowed 15 or more shots 3 times this season but they have allowed an opponent to have an average xG per shot 0.15 or more 13 times. Allison has been the best shot-stopper in the League this season but even he can’t cover for that.

What really complicates things in the analysis is the damn home/road splits.

Liverpool have a massive home-and-away split in performance. All teams have some split but no Premier League team has a larger delta between how they perform at home vs how they perform away than Liverpool.

At home their performances put them as the second-best team just marginally better than Arsenal. Away from they have played very poorly looking like a bottom-of-the-table team at home (also LOL Manchester United). It is possible that there is some sequencing in these numbers given that not every team has faced all the others both home and away (for example, Arsenal have their three hardest away matches to go).

I don’t know fully what to make of this right now beyond that I am still very nervous for how this match can change the season for Arsenal.

A draw here is an okay result, Arsenal lose about half an expected point and if combined with a Manchester City win that would close the overall gap expected between the teams to a point.

A win on the other hand, could see the gap grow to over two points. That would be huge with just 8 matches to go and take a little edge off the looming match with them.

It is going to be a nervy match but hopefully, Arsenal can pull through and get the first win in Liverpool in a long time.

Week 30 Odds

The weekend starts with Manchester United hosting Everton. After being beaten by Newcastle convincingly, United bounced back but they are still in the battle for the top four where dropped points could open the door for another team to sneak in.

For the 7am (3pm) kickoffs, Tottenham vs Brighton has the biggest top four implications and I will probably start with that match but I will also keep an eye on Leicester vs Bournemouth.

Saturday ends with me not expecting much in the way of help from Southampton. I don’t think Southampton are especially good and to see them get even a point or goal for that matter, would be a surprise.

Sunday will see me skipping Easter services for good reason but it starts with a big match between Leeds and Crystal Palace.

Both teams are in the dangerous kind of safe, kind of in danger zone where every fixture is high leverage for them. It can make for an exciting match but could also make it a bit conservative. It will be a nice warm-up for the Arsenal match.

Sunday ends, with me preparing for brunch and watching the Arsenal. I already wrote about it above so I won’t add too much more here beyond, I would really like to end the bad run of form at Anfield and that I think this team has that ability in them.

Yee Haw.