Liverpool vs Arsenal: The highest leverage match of the season so far
This match on Saturday for Arsenal is the biggest of the season to date for what it means for the title odds.
The match against Newcastle was tough, but given that Newcastle have been on the periphery of the title chase it didn’t matter as much. The match against City early in the season was big but given how early it came in the season, it did not have the same level of leverage to swing the title odds.
This one however, this one is about as big as things can get for a match in December.
As things stand Arsenal have a one-point lead on Liverpool, but more importantly, they have a five-point lead over Manchester City. My model REALLY likes Arsenal right now, and has taken a sour view against Manchester City.
This is because Manchester City are down significantly from their previous best. This is very different than last year where even when Arsenal had a similar (or better lead) City still held a significant edge in the performance, so while we all expected that City would come roaring back, so did the model.
This year Manchester City are not at that same level.
They are a very good team but they are not the same level of good as the previous Manchester City teams, who had teams that challenged them or even beat them to the title.
Excluding Pep’s first year in the league, Manchester City have averaged a +1.5 weighted Goals plus xG difference in the Premier League. The best was two seasons ago when they were nearly +1.8 and the worst was 2020/21 when they didn’t have a team pushing them, finishing with just +1.1.
This season that measure is down to +0.99, still very good but still a noticeable decline from their best, and with that it makes overcoming a gap in points potentially tougher, especially if they have not just one, but two serious teams (maybe even three if you count Aston Villa who also have a 4 point lead over them).
That has pushed my simulation title odds heavily in favor of Arsenal.
With that here is how the match against Liverpool can swing the title odds. This uses the assumption that just this match changes, with a close match with the winning team winning 1-0 on 0.8 to 0.6 on xG, or 1-1 with both teams at 0.8 xG.
A win here for Arsenal is obviously huge. Not just for the title odds but also because it is just overdue with no wins since 2012 at Anfield. I felt pretty good going into the match last year but had nerves with the backline, this year Arsenal go into the match with a starting eleven that is intact and coming off the best performance of the season.
A contract of styles
On a high level right now Arsenal and Liverpool are not all that different.
Arsenal have scored 35 goals and allowed 15.
Liverpool have scored 36 and allowed 15.
On the underlying numbers, it is a bit different with Arsenal at 31.3 xG and 12.7xGA and Liverpool at 34.4 and 20.5 but overall both of these teams are solidly on the positive side, with a bit of positive variance (Liverpool a bit more on that).
How they get there is very different.
Both teams have high possession but what the goals of that possession are look very different.
Arsenal are control and domination, while Liverpool is looking to move quickly towards goal and generate a look at goal.
This has translated into Liverpool looking like the stronger attacking team.
But Arsenal the stronger defensive team.
The simulation and the betting odds have Liverpool as favorites in this match but there is still a very good chance for Arsenal to get a win or at least a result.
I am excited for this match, perhaps irrationally so. These are the games that we dread but have dreamed of playing, especially when Arsenal was watching Liverpool take on City while they were in 8th place.
🤠 Yee Haw.