Headline: Escape
On most stats this match was not close.
Arsenal dominated this game, putting up more than enough to where this should not have been hanging in the balance going into the dying moments of stoppage time.
Arsenal won on shots 23 to 6.
Arsenal won on touches in the box 52 to 5.
Arsenal won xG 2.8 to 0.8.
Ultimately they also won on goals 4 to 3.
Running the simulation of the match based on the chances for both teams you get the following result:
It was incredibly unlikely that this would have or should have ended with the actual scoreline that we ended up with here. There will be more about that in the stock falling.
This was a match that felt like Arsenal almost felt like they could just show up and be handed the win but Luton did not allow that at all.
I was very impressed with the pressure they put Arsenal under in the first half. They ended with allowing just 12 passes per defensive action, while forcing Arsenal into 20 long passes from their own half and completing fewer passes than expected in build-up.
They didn’t do a lot with that, creating just 2 shots and just one from open play but they also made it an incredibly uncomfortable match for Arsenal. Arsenal did finally break through with a couple of goals in the first half but it was never the flowing and smooth attacking performance.
The second half got off to a horror start with Arsenal still not looking woke up and conceding two really soft goals.
Going behind and then bringing on some fresh legs did seem to finally get things going for Arsenal but it looked like it might be a little too late for them. Luckily that guy Declan Rice was there again to score a late winner to save Arsenal from what would have been a real gut punch of dropped points.
Stock Rising: Kai Havertz
It took a while but Havertz is starting to click and show the vision that Mikel Arteta had for him.
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