Martin Zubimendi: The Debrief

Arsenal get their new defensive midfielder

It kind of sucks when one of the biggest moves of the summer feels a bit anti-climatic because we have known it was happening and all but done for some long but just awaiting the final announcement.

I don’t want to feel that way about this Martin Zubimendi signing and this really should be celebrated and analyzed like the big deal it is. This is Arsenal making a signing with the intent to come right into the XI and have the ability to elevate a team that has been on the cusp of greatness and just needs that extra push over the edge.

It is a big deal and while we have written and talked about him extensively it is good to distill all of that into something today, with the big official news.

Let’s dig into the numbers on Arsenal’s new defensive midfielder.

The Debrief: Martin Zubimendi

This will be looking at Zubimendi’s stats by area/category from last season with Real Sociedad. All data will be per 90 minutes unless otherwise noted and compared to other midfielders from the top five European Leagues going back to the 2017/18 for percentile comparisons.

I said this when I did the stats scouting of the player and it remains true to this day:

With Zubimendi there is a slight disconnect between the rating of the player from the tape and the stats, where scouts have consistently rated him but the green bars on FBref have been just okay.

If it feels a bit underwhelming don’t be concerned, you’re not wrong about the numbers, my hope after watching him a bit closer is that he is a player that is just not fully captured on the little things, plus the weird things that Sociedad do tactically.

Ball Progression, Passing, and Carrying Metrics

51.7 - Pass attempts per 90, 73rd percentile among midfielders

102.7% - Pass Efficiency (the ratio of actual pass completion compared to expected pass completion, 100 is completed as many passes as expected and higher is better), 68th percentile among midfielders

4.8 - Completed Final Third Entry Passes per 90, 78th percentile among midfielders

89.3% - Completion percentage on final third entry passes, 74th percentile among midfielders

3.3 - Progressive Passes completed per 90, 65th percentile among midfielders

2.6 - Progressive Fields Gained (total distance of a field moved progressing the ball) per 90, 71st percentile among midfielders

2.2 - Long passes completed per 90, 51st percentile among midfielders

64.6% - Long pass completion percentage, 74th percentile among midfielders

0.06 - Goal probability added through passing (my version of an expected threat, this measures how much the actions a player did that help or hurt the team’s chances of scoring) per 90, 60th percentile among midfielders

3.4 - Progressive carries per 90, 52nd percentile among midfielders

0.4 - Dribbles completed per 90, 25th percentile among midfielders

1.45 - Turnovers (dispossessed plus miscontrols) per 90, 80th percentile among midfielders

1.3 - Final Third Entry Carries per 90, 49th percentile among midfielders

0.25 - xG Buildup (the total xG where he was involved in the buildup play before the final pass or shot) per 90, 38th percentile among midfielders

18.0% - The percentage of buildup to the total xG West Ham created while he was on the field that Rice was involved in, 36th percentile among midfielders

The overall ball progression numbers are good. He is often compared to Jorginho and to be totally frank, he’s not that right now. He will be a positive force to Arsenal moving the ball up the field, and an improvement on Thomas Partey but he is not a one of one unicorn ball progressor.

I also don’t believe that is what Arsenal need from this position or move.

Defensive metrics

1.48 - Aerial duels won per 90, 76th percentile among midfielders

61.1% - Aerial duel win percentage, 89th percentile among midfielders

2.13 - Possession adjusted tackles, 49th percentile among midfielders

49% - Tackle percentage (tackles won dived by total tackles attempted plus fouls), 69th percentile among midfielders

26% - Dribbled past percentage, 81st percentile among midfielders

1.5 - Possession adjusted fouls committed, 52nd percentile among midfielders (this is showing that he committed slightly more fouls than average)

2.5 - Possession adjusted Interceptions, 72nd percentile among midfielders

0.96 - Possession adjusted blocked passes, 39th percentile among midfielders

7.07 - Possession adjusted ball recoveries, 70th percentile among midfielders

1.11 - Second Balls won, 79th percentile among midfielders

0.10 - Defensive Value of plays disrupted, 55th percentile among midfielders

76.3 - Opponent xG allowed while he is on the field compared to average xG, 77th percentile

Zubimendi isn’t a destroyer but the data here plus the tape suggest that he is a very capable and willing ball winner. After seeing both Parety and Jorginho struggle getting run past in midfield having the younger legs able to cover more ground will be very welcome.

Attacking metrics

0.47 - Open play shots, 26th percentile among midfielders

0.04 - Open play expected goals, 32nd percentile among midfielders

0.24 - Shots in prime (within 12 yards of goal), 61st percentile among midfielders

0.51 - Open play key passes, 23rd percentile among midfielders

0.05 - Open play expected shots assisted (xA), 28th percentile among midfielders

0.64 - Deep Pass Completions (passes within 25 yards of the opponents goal), 28th percentile among midfielders

This is not a major factor in how I view a defensive midfielder but for completeness I included this section.

Final Thoughts

This is a bit of a tough player for me to fully buy into. I really want to love this player but I can’t help but be honest that I have a bit of the nagging worry in my mind given that the data is just pretty good here for him.

I know that the scouts love him, he has been chased by the biggest clubs and that he is pretty universally rated by people that know ball but I have never really been one that was convinced by an appeal to authority argument.

I have watched enough to sort of see and understand what they are saying with those arguments, he does do lots of the little things right and sets up his teammates for success but is that enough? I hope so but to a certain extent have to take it a bit on faith.

One of the hypotheses I have proposed is that his numbers are largely a reflection of his time at Sociedad. Looking at the tactics of Real Sociedad I do find that they are a team that could skew a midfielder’s stats plausible but this is hard to confirm without him moving teams first.

There is a bit of a natural experiment in this with his time with the Spanish National Team playing in the Nations League in the place of an injured Rodri. This isn’t perfect given that the National team game is pretty different than the club game but beggars can’t be choosers here and that is at least a fairly robust (if disjointed with breaks) sample size of nearly 800 minutes played.

It’s not drastically changed but the areas that might be a touch of a concern previously are the areas where he really makes the improvements. He completes more passes from higher volume and similar usage. He is a bit more progressive overall, especially with his ability to get the ball from the middle to the final third. Plus, he does all of this without too much change in the defensive ball winning numbers.

I was listening to the Double Pivot podcast on Arsenal’s business so far and they talked about him as a guy that doesn’t take anything off the table and did the mem from Once upon a time in Hollywood at my car’s infotainment screen. He is a player that does lots of things well, doesn’t have any major weaknesses that are trouble to account for and probably perfect for the Arsenal midfield even if he doesn’t have that one elite thing.

Ultimately I am excited for this new chapter for Arsenal.

Welcome Martin.