Martinelli's World Cup Hangover
A number of Arsenal players seem to be below their standard after going to the World Cup with Martinelli the one that is getting the most attention, is that actually the case?
This is going to be an exercise in small sample size analysis, so let’s just get that stated upfront. This might be nothing, a three-match run is nowhere close to enough to be able to make any sort of judgment.
I know I have titled this a “World Cup Hangover” but I also don’t think that is necessarily the reason, it could just as well be explained that Arsenal have faced three good defensive teams (yeah even West Ham are a solid defensive team, it has been their attack that has really let them down this year).
So let’s not go too hard on Gabriel Martinelli or read too much into this, this is just an exploration of if a narrative that seems to be forming is true.
Gabriel Martinelli Pre and Post World Cup
Martinelli is probably the player that has looked the most off his previous best. The numbers pre and post World Cup do to a certain extent back that up.
The headline numbers haven’t changed too much: before the break, he was averaging 2 open play shots per match, and since 3, 1.6 key passes per match, and since 1.3, 0.24 xG per match, and since 0.35, 0.22 xA per match, and since 0.19.
Where is has been touching the ball has looked roughly the same (at least when aggregated). So that isn’t really what is different.
Looking at the goal probability added (my version of expected threat) the last few matches aren’t that far off of the matches right before the break but are off the highs that he was doing early in the season.
This could be some of the selective endpoint highlighting that he wasn’t quite at the same form he was early this season and perhaps combined with the loss of Gabriel Jesus who he seemed to play off and interchange with well. I think the Jesus absence might be a bigger factor (but again be careful because there are so many factors nailing down one is a fool’s errand), to my eye he is perhaps trying too hard, trying to force things that he might not have early this season.
Sometimes that comes off and you get a really good goal like we saw against Brighton sometimes that ends with an 0 for 5 day in dribbles. I think looking to beat a man has probably been the biggest change, he attempted a lot early in the year but more often than not it was one on one isolated against a fullback, against Newcastle there were a lot of times that looked like this:
Or this, where he is isolated with three guys focused against him:
The loss of Jesus, who drew so much attention from defenses and had a tendency to occupy areas on the left could be a major factor in his dribble rate going from 51% to 15%.
The other thing that goes hand in hand with some of the frustration around his dribbling is that his passing hasn’t quite been as sharp. His passes attempted has been very stable for far this season, staying roughly in the 25 to 40 passes attempted per match.
Where there is perhaps a trend is that how often he is completing those passes, especially against what we would expect seems to have dipped.
When a player is a bit high risk and high reward like I think Martinelli is, it can be easy for losing the ball (even if the value produced) to creep in and color people’s view on how a player is performing.
This is the classic Alexis Sanchez-type performance profile, which is not to say Martinelli is Sanchez, he might develop into that good of a player but he does have similar traits in that he seems to cause frustrations with fans.
Final Thoughts
Martinelli has been off his best.
I don’t think there is really any doubt about that.
This trend didn’t start specifically after returning from the World Cup, I do think that is just an easy demarcation that can draw our attention to it.
Martinelli is still one of the best young attacking midfielders in Europe right now
Below is the list of under-25 attacking midfielders sorted by how well they rate on my Attacking Midfielder ratings.
Martinelli is seventh, among players in the Premier League only Foden and Saka rate above him.
I think seeing out this rough patch, getting in a player or two to help relieve some of the minutes strain and burden that I think he is putting on himself right now will be key to getting him back to the highs that we saw him hit at the beginning of the season.
Don’t really get this. The numbers you’re saying are about the same (OP shots, xG) are up ~50% from where they were previously. This doesn’t look like someone off his best to me. This looks like someone who has changed his focus (possibly because of the Jesus injury, but who knows?).