MATCH PREVIEW: Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen
Previewing Arsenal's round of 16 matchup
After finishing up a perfect League phase of the Champions League that had them seeded 1st and avoiding the first knockout round, Arsenal’s Champions League campaign resumes with a round of 16 matchup against Bayer Leverkusen.
It’s illuminating to look back to the last two times that Arsenal were at this stage.
In 2023/24 this was against Porto and it still felt like a big test for Arsenal’s ability to show that they belonged among the best in Europe.
Last season came amidst an injury crisis yet there was more confidence but perhaps a touch of imposter syndrome where we were expecting a gut punch to come.
This season, I have not seen a massive amount of build up for this match, it doesn’t feel like a big occasion, and it is now just one of many matches that Arsenal has this time of year and not something special. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; I think that this a reflection that Arsenal come into this tie as the favorite not just in this matchup but also overall for the tournament.
We have come a long way and our expectations for this tournament have matched that. Winning a round of 16 matchup is no longer a sign of growth and ability “to do it in Europe” but rather something that is expected.
This is good, and a team that has aspirations to win the tournament should come into a match like this with this kind of attitude. I don’t think for a second that Arsenal will look past Bayer Leverkusen and, on that note, let’s spend some time digging into the matchup.
Leverkusen Performance
The 2025-26 season for Leverkusen started with quite a lot of change.
The summer saw manager Xabi Alonso leave for Real Madrid and with him, so did many of the title winning key players. Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong left for Liverpool, Granit Xhaka left for Sunderland, Jonathan Tah left for Bayern, Piero Hincapie left for Arsenal.
That didn’t end the churn, Erik ten Hag came in to replace Alonso but last just three matches.
Since that rocky start however, they have been able stabilize themselves and outside of Bayern, have turned themselves into one of the solidly good Bundesliga teams fighting for the Champions League spots.
In the Bundesliga, Bayern is in their own class and that always makes these graphics look a little funky. Outside of the super team in the League, Leverkusen compare pretty well coming in as roughly the 4th best attack combined with the 3rd best defense.
In the Champions League they were decidedly fine overall. They finished 16th but really came on stronger after starting off with draws to Copenhagen and PSV and a big loss against PSG. They won 4 of their last 5 matches (including away to Manchester City) and punched their ticket to the knockout round.
The overall performance reflects that they are a solidly good team, but they are far from one of the favorites for the tournament.
Leverkusen’s Form
Leverkusen have lost just once in their last 10 matches played between the Bundesliga and the Champions League. They have managed 6 wins and have generally been better than their opponents over this stretch.
They have managed 18 goals scored from a bit more than 15 expected against 7 goals allowed from 10 expected.
They won the xG battle by 0.5 or more in 5 of the 10 matches over this span, with the opposition managing to out create them just once (the most recent one).
In their two-legged tie to earn the right to play Arsenal they got two goals away against Olympiacos and then in the return tie made it an ugly drab affair for a totally acceptable 0-0.
Style Comparison
Stylistically this is an fascinating clash featuring two of Europe's most possession-dominant, passing-intensive sides.
Leverkusen surprisingly have the edge on total passes per match, and will have more per possession than Arsenal but they have tended to play in different parts of the pitch. Arsenal have continued to be Field Tilt FC, even if they aren’t quite as extreme in that regard this season, compared to Leverkusen they have played in the oppositions half much more.
It’s important to include the League stats here but with the Premier League diverging in style (and overall quality) what is probably more interesting is looking at how the teams have compared in the Champions League.
In the Champions League, Leverkusen still have more passes and more possession and that could potentially lead to a matchup where they do actually have more of the ball than Arsenal. For a “big” team, Arsenal are generally comfortable playing like this as well, believing in their ability to control the game through making it be played in the areas that they want it to.
Overall, as an attack, Leverkusen look decent but not elite. They are good at ball progression and hanging on to the ball but they don’t always translate that into dangerous moments.
Against Arsenal’s defense that could be a problem for them, but if they can hold on to the ball enough, maybe they can play the try and let Arsenal beat Arsenal card and see if they can capitalize on a mistake. If they are forced to attack, that doesn’t look to be a major strength for them or something that should cause Arsenal to drastically change their standard game plan.
Defensively Leverkusen are pretty strong, focusing on their defensive possession limiting what teams do against them. They don’t really press or put too much effort into trying to disrupt play.
They defend with shape and structure rather than aggression. A team willing to play through them patiently (or on the counter from their possession) can find gaps and generate chances.
Keys to the game
If I were looking at what Arsenal need to do in this match to tilt it in their favor I would focus on these items
EXPLOIT SET PLAYS. This is basically Arsenal’s edge in any match. Leverkusen's set play shots against and overall record suggest that they could struggle to cope with Arsenal’s threat.
DON’T BEAT YOURSELF. Arsenal are a very good pressing team but they will probably want to pick their spots to strategically attack the buildup play of Leverkusen. Leverkusen's ball-retention quality looks capable of coping if the press isn’t totally limiting the options and could gift scoring chances that might be otherwise difficult for them to create. This will be important for Arsenal in possession as well, one of the few consistent ways teams have created chances against Arsenal is taking advantage of sloppy play from Arsenal, they can’t make it too easy here.
EMBRACE A BIT OF CHAOS? Leverkusen have the hallmarks of a team that wants to limit the opportunities for both teams and see if they can edge it. Arsenal will have a talent advantage in this match and this should be different than the normal low block affair that we see in the Premier League. Arsenal should be willing to embrace a bit more chaos, they have done this a bit more in the Champions League and it has paid dividends for them. I could see this matchup as an opportunity for that as well.