MATCH PREVIEW: Chelsea
The Premier League season is sort of petering out for Arsenal. The title isn’t mathematically over, but it has been over basically since Bukayo Saka was injured and then was joined by Gabriel Martinelli and Kai Havertz. Arsenal could drop from second place but there is very little risk in the team falling out of the Champions League qualification spots for next season.
One of the last big motivators for the season is playing and beating rivals and making sure that they don’t have things to hold over us.
This is very much where this Chelsea match is for me. I don’t want to lose against the team that for me is the most hated, especially not before the last international break where we will have to sit with it for an extended period where the mood around the team is already a bit testy.
Arsenal got the job done against PSV and it would be really nice if they kept that up and helped solidify their top 2 spot and beat a rival in the process this weekend. Chelsea are a bit of a mixed bag this season but they will still be a good test for Arsenal.
Chelsea Performance
Chelsea this season have been good but not great.
They are a really good example of the team that is fighting for the final Champions League spots this season, on their day they can look very good but they have not been able to put it together consistently enough and they still have some flaws that limit their ceiling.
Most of the metrics would point to them being between the 3rd or 4th best team this season and I think that is a pretty fair reflection for where I would place them.
They have the third best goal difference, having scored the third most goals and allowed the seventh fewest goals. They match that with the third best xG difference, having created the second most xG and allowed their opponents the 10th most xG.
I think that you can pretty aptly describe them as a good attacking team with a decent defense, and the defense is definitely the weakness here.
They represent a bit of a solid contrast to Arsenal who have the very good defense combined with an attack that is a weakness, especially recently with the injuries to the front line.
Chelsea Form
The last ten played form table has Chelsea dropping back from the top 3-4 teams into more of a top 6-8 type team. They have an even goal difference over this stretch but it is likely a bit of misfortune with them under their xG and with their opponents scoring above the xG allowed.
Over their last five matches, the have 3 wins and 2 losses. The two losses were against the two tough teams that they have faced over that span and overall have been pretty mixed in the performances.
Against West Ham it took a 74th minute own goal to win, but overall they were the slightly better of the teams.
Against Brighton, it was tight early and then fell apart once Brighton took the lead.
Against, Aston Villa Chelsea got an early goal but then struggled to create much and add on. Aston Villa weren’t great but created a few good openings to steal the victory here.
One of the things that has been an emerging pattern this season for Chelsea is that they are strong against the weak teams this season but they have struggled to get wins against the teams that are rated highly this season. This points to Arsenal perhaps being a tough matchup for them.
Style Comparison
Arsenal and Chelsea share similarities in their style. It makes sense as both Arteta and Enzo Maresca share a similar tactical philosophy (both also were assistants under Pep Guardiola).
Maresca has favored a 4-2-3-1 over the 4-3-3 that Areta uses but the differences seem to be pretty marginal. The double pivot in midfield—typically anchored by players like Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo supports Cole Palmer in a free role and three attackers in front of him.
Chelsea have played an even slower style than Arsenal overall but have been able to be more efficient and effective once they make it to the final third. They are very methodical in buildup but with the aim almost of drawing out and creating faux transition moments (along with actual transition moments) to attack at speed when they make into the final third.
The attacking numbers that they have been able to produce this season are pretty strong and I look at them with a bit of envy from an Arsenal perspective.
The big item for the match against Arsenal will be if they have the guys available or not and it does seem that Maresca is positive about the options, “Cole [Palmer], Reece [James], and Christopher [Nkunku], today [March 12th] was their first session. Yesterday [March 11th], they were not here, and two days ago, they rested. The reason why is because all of them had some problems, but today they were all back and better.”
Defensively, Chelsea’s high line (4th in the PL) remains a double-edged sword. It compresses the pitch and fuels their pressing/transition game (they like to push forward in a 4-2-4 out of possession), but it’s also something that opens them up for allowing good opportunities if the press is broken or they faced sustained attacks against their defensive line.
Keys to the game
If I were looking at what Arsenal need to do in this match to tilt it in their favor I would focus on these items
SCORE EARLY. This is something that Arsenal always want to do but with the current situation for the team this feels like an existentially important task for the team. If Arsenal can get out ahead in the opening 20-25 minutes of this match that has the potential to be factor that opens things up for Arsenal. The longer the game goes without a goal, the more the pressure seems to mount on the team and the attacking fluidity goes with it. If the team can score early, it feels like multiple goals scored is possible. I would open up the reins a bit here and push harder than normal to see if it is possible to make this happen.
WIN THE MIDFIELD. Chelsea’s reliance on their double pivot to dictate play and shield their backline is a linchpin of their system. For Arsenal, the key will be to suffocate this duo (Likely Fernández and Caicedo) early and often. Arteta will have had an eye on this and I think has the plan to unleash Ødegaard and Rice to press high and disrupt Chelsea’s rhythm, looking to force turnovers in dangerous areas. If Arsenal’s midfield can win this battle and isolate Cole Palmer or Nkunku from their supply, Arsenal can turn Chelsea’s buildup possession into a liability.
KEEP THE WIDEMEN QUIET. Chelsea’s wide players pose a constant threat with their dribbling and ability to cut inside or deliver crosses. Arsenal’s full-backs, likely Ben White or Jurrien Timber on the right and MLS on the left, need to stay tight, win their duels. Arteta’s emphasis on structure will be tested here; if Arsenal can nullify Chelsea’s flanks without providing extra help from central locations, they’ll blunt much of their attacking potency and force them into a crowded midfield where Arsenal should have the advantage.
My model and the betting odds like Arsenal in this match. I am less confident in this having watched Arsenal struggle lately. I do think that perhaps this type of team might provide Arsenal with more opportunities to create and the return of Gabriel Martinelli with some midweek rotation puts Arsenal in a better spot than they have been recently.
I badly want Arsenal to win for selfish reasons because there is some inter-family rivalry with my brother who supports Chelsea but also because I don’t want to be online having to marinate in the takes if this goes the wrong way.
Please Arsenal, just beat the bad team here and send us into the international break on a high.