MATCH PREVIEW: Everton (A)

Arsenal travel to Goodison Park for the final time, hopefully they avoid the trap

This match against Everton is the most trappy of trap games.

Arsenal play Real Madrid right after this and they are probably more worried about the injuries to the backline than how they will necassarily play against Everton. It has our attention is everywhere else than on this match written all over it.

I know my focus isn’t on this match and I hope that the team can fair better than me (they probably can).

Everton Performance

Everton have some ugly numbers this season. There are explanations about them but no beating around the bush about it. They are no doubt one of the teams happy that the promoted teams have been historically poor and not putting more pressure on teams at the bottom of the midtable.

Performance in the Premier League over the current season, both for attack and defense

The rank pretty solidly midtable in the metrics so far this season, ranking 8th in xG difference and 10th in goal difference. The attacking numbers are not that great but they have paired it with a stingy defense that has allowed the third fewest expected goals and eighth fewest goals.

Overall, this season, my team ratings put them 15th overall, with the 17th-rated attack and the 8th-rated defense. This is a bit of a tough one given they have changed their manager mid-season and that has seen them play at a better level over that span.

Everton Form

Everton have just 4 points from their last five games played, drawing four and losing once. This has been a tough reflection on how they have actually played with my numbers suggesting that they would normally be closer to 8 or 9 points.

Here is the running xG from their last five played in the Premier League:

They had the better of the chances in two of these matches, had two matches where they were roughly even, and were out-chanced by Liverpool (but also had a few decent looks themselves there).

David Moyes took over 11 matches ago, and since then, Everton has played better and come out as the 6th best team over this period. Even more positive for them is that this run has also come against a fairly tough part of the schedule as well (7th toughest over this span).

Style Comparison and Key Players

This is partially complicated by the factor that they had Sean Dyche early in the season but a quick glance suggests that while Moyes might be slightly different and quite as extreme he sees that this is how the squad was built and has played in a similar way.

I don’t think that there is any real surprises here in how Everton show up here.

Buildup leaders

Idrissa Gueye is probably the player that I would highlight in buildup that would be key to watch but in reality against Arsenal it will probably be playing over rather than through Arsenal here.

Here is a bit more on how they have built up this season.

In the attacking third, Dwight McNeil had been the main threat but he will miss out against Arsenal with a knee injury. They will also be without Calvert-Lewin and Ndiaye just coming back into the team.

Against Liverpool they lined up with Harrison, Beto, and Alcaraz and that could be how they line up again (depending on if Ndiaye’s health).

Beto doesn’t quite hit the minimum for the minutes played but is probably the player I would be most worried about against Arsenal, especially with the news that Arsenal will be without Gabriel for the rest of the season.

Team Ranks

Their attacking play has been not been good this season but has been better under Moyes. I still would say that this is not the strength of the team but it will be enough of a threat on the counter that they can score against Arsenal and provide problems if Arsenal are not on top of their game.

Out of possession, they are stronger but they are still not exactly elite at this.

I expect that they will look to frustrate Arsenal here and see if they can limit the chances they allow here.

Odds

My model and the betting odds are in lock step on this match. Arsenal are favorites but the odds of a draw are higher than normal here.

The complicating factor here is obviosly the injuries to Arsenal but also this is a classic trap game ahead of a visit from Real Madrid. I am less comfortable than I probably should be going into this one.