MATCH PREVIEW: Liverpool (H)
A depleted Arsenal face a high leverage October matchup with a title rival
I look forward to this match every season. I feel like Liverpool are a team that have built something very impressive, and they are a team that I admire and want to see Arsenal follow suit with them on how they rebuilt themselves into a perennial contender.
This is a measuring stick match and Arsenal being able to have back to back wins in this fixture helped me to believe that this team was for real and I think I might need that again this season.
Let’s jump into the preview for one of the biggest matches Arsenal have played so far this season.
Liverpool Performance
Liverpool were one of the teams that had the most questions about themselves coming into this season. They were replacing a legendary coach, they hadn’t spent a lot of money augmenting the squad and had fallen short in their title challenge last season.
In my team ratings and in my power rankings, this is a team that I have a lot of respect for, ranking very much in the tier with Arsenal and Manchester City as genuine title challenger potential.
In my team ratings they come out with the 2nd best attack, and the 2nd best defense and overall right now look like the 2nd best team in the League.
This season they have played a schedule that is the 2nd easiest and about 9% easier than average. That makes some of the early season numbers something to take with some skepticism. They have played three of the top 7 teams, with the most recent match against Chelsea looking like one that was a bit more shaky than they probably would have liked before this match against Arsenal.
They also come into this match against Arsenal on the back of an away trip in the Champions League to RB Leipzig. The Wednesday to Sunday turnaround isn’t that taxing but having both matches away from home is probably less than ideal.
They won by just the single goal against Leipzig but looked overall pretty comfortable doing so. The performance away from home, didn’t rear its head here but it might still be a worry.
Liverpool is a team that has some large home vs away splits.
Liverpool - Form
Liverpool have 4 wins in their last 5 and have played like a very good team over that stretch. They have 8 goals (1 penalty) from 7.9 xG and have allowed just 3 from 4.3 xG, picking up 12 points from about 11 expected points based on performance.
They won the xG battle in all 5 matches over this span, losing just 1 game. The match against Forest has been one of the few where they have looked like they struggled with ideas in attack against Nuno’s very tough to break down defensive block. They still came out on top in the numbers, but looked vulnerable at times on the counter.
Against Chelsea, the first real big test for this team in the Premier League, they looked good but some of the defensive frailty did show through, allowing 3 big chances and having the game end up more uncomfortable than they would have liked.
Style Comparison
Arsenal’s numbers are still heavily affected by the red cards but it still makes for interesting reading to compare the two teams.
Liverpool have been a heavy possession team, but considering the schedule they have played it might be lower than you would expect. They are happy to have the ball but seem content to play out of possession as well. When they get it, they have retained that ability to play quick and directly but they are less extreme on this front.
Looking at the speed at which the attack they have become a lot more conventional this season, sitting in the bunched area with most of the “good” teams.
They still show a fairly high press, but it is again more dialed back. This hasn’t dented the effectiveness with them still showing as one of the harder teams to complete passes against this season.
The switch to a more conventional style hasn’t hurt the team, with them still exhibiting good attacking numbers.
They are generating a good amount of shots (down from Klopp’s shoot on sight Liverpool), but have had them mostly come from open play.
What they do have right now, is that they are lethal when given a chance to score. They turn their possession close to goal into shots at a very high rate and that will be something that Arsenal will need to control if they want to get something from this match.
Defensively they have started this season looking like a very tough team to get any joy from. They are limiting shots, limiting access to dangerous areas, while still rating as a fairly high pressing team that is hard to buildup against.
For this game on of the other big questions, is how have they changed from last season?
Klopp’s team was an outlier and it does not appear that Arne Slot has kept that full identity here. I have already touched that this team looks like a more conventional good team and less like the crazy lets get it forward and get a shot team that they were last year.
It is too early to say if that is good or bad, with the results looking roughly the same between the two so far. Over the same corresponding fixtures from last season this is how Liverpool stacks up:
Points: -1 (21 vs 22)
xG: -4.3 (15.6 vs 19.9)
Goals: -7 (15 vs 22)
xGA: -1.6 (6.1 vs 7.7)
Goals A: -3.0 (3 vs 6)
xG Dif: -2.7 (9.5 vs 12.2)
Goal Dif: -4 (12 vs 16)
The attack isn’t quite at the same level, but the defensive numbers are better. On net the team is close overall. It will be something to watch as the season goes on.
Keys to the game
If I were looking at what Arsenal need to do in this match to tilt it in their favor, I would focus on these items
CONTROL TERRITORY. This is probably the biggest thing that I want to see from Arsenal in this game. They need to make sure that when this game is still in the balance that they are not spending all of their time in their own defensive third. Even if this is not a game where Arsenal have more possession, they need to keep the block higher up the field and limit the chances for Liverpool to get into the final third with their lethal attackers.
WIN THE DUELS. This was a key last week and one where we never really got to see if it would have played out. Looking at the correlations to performance however this is right up there for how teams have limited Liverpool over the last two seasons. With the Liverpool pressure, being able to win the ground battles one v one, and when the ball is pushed up field win them in the air will be the key to being able to get out.
START QUICK AND BRING IT TO THEM. Arsenal have been pretty slow starters this season, and they started very slow against Bournemouth while they were in feel-the-game-out mode. This is a big occasion and the fans will be up for it, but I think if this one stretches past 30 minutes again with Arsenal only at 1 or 2 shots and the game feeling like a chess match, the mood could turn on them. This is probably not the game to turn the press up to ELEVEN, with the team without Odegaard and Saliba in defense and with Saka’s level of health questionable, but using the press to generate chances while the two main creators are not at their best might be the best way to get some high quality looks at goal.
My model and the betting odds like Arsenal in this match. I am far from as confident as this suggests. Cold, rational me knows this Arsenal team is still very good, and Liverpool away from home are not the same. The 11v11 numbers and the evidence of the last 24 months shows this, I just can’t help but come into this at a nadir of confidence driven by the absences that Arsenal are looking at for this game.
It is tough to have a must win game in October, but this one is up there for how close it comes for meeting that threshold. A loss here (or even a draw) can really put a big dent in Arsenal’s chances to win the title. It won’t end it, we saw last year that the team was able to overcome a slow start and push to the end, but with a goal of hitting 90 or more points, every dropped point feels like an existential problem.