MATCH PREVIEW: Manchester United (A)

Arsenal start the season with a test away at Old Trafford

Here we go!

After what seemed like a short summer we are back again for another season of the Premier League. Arsenal’s expectations remain incredibly high and that will be tested right off the bat with Arsenal kicking off a punishing six match run to get things started this season.

The first match (thank you fixture computer I guess) is a never easy trip up north to play against Manchester United.

Let’s break it down.

Manchester United Transfer Business

Manchester United have gotten people pretty excited about their business this summer.

Buying attackers will do that.

I’d have to say that I am less impressed with the business that they have done given the state of the squad previously and the fees paid.

I actually like each attacker that they have bought but the overall fees that they have paid for each one feels like they are still fully paying the Manchester United tax where it is 25-50% above what you would classify as a “good/reasonable” fee. If money doesn’t matter to a team, getting a good fee is less important and for a long time that was how United operated. This might not be the case as much now, given that they have had years of doing this and it has put their finances under strain.

The transfer window isn’t closed yet but when you look at the players that can play for them in midfield, it is missing players that have the ability to advance it from the defensive third to the attacking third and be able to stop the opposition team from doing the same. They have players that are capable of doing one of these tasks but no one that currently looks like they are capable of doing both.

They seem to have gone with a transfer strategy that is based on this kind of a game model:

It’s a bold move and we will see if it pays off.

Manchester United Performance

Last season was the lowest that they have finished since the 1973/74 season and it was a major humbling compared to the expectations of being Manchester United. There is a bit of explanation given that they spent the majority of the second half of the season favoring results in the Europa League over the Premier League, but it still does not reflect well on them to finish the season in 15th place on just 42 points.

Performance in the Premier League last season, both for attack and defense

The overall attacking and defensive numbers were a bit better than the spot in the table but only marginally so. There are not a lot of positives to see from them last season ranking in the bottom half for attack and defense.

This is a continuation of an overall trend, where the team has seen the performances deteriorate quite significantly.

For much of the last four seasons the team has spent a good chunk (with the trend getting worse) of time allowing the opposition to create more expected goals than them.

Manchester United Form

At the start of the season form doesn’t particularly matter but this is a section that is standard in this format so I will keep it.

Manchester United didn’t finish the season on fire, again a bit understandable given that they were focused more on the Europa League.

One thing that is probably not great overall for them is that it’s really not all that easy to see any sort of change for where they switched managers in the performance data. They were basically the same below average team all season long and it didn’t really matter if it was Eric Ten Hag or Ruben Amorim in charge.

I am a sicko for data but I will only go so far, and that doesn’t include going and pulling the preseason advanced data for a non-Arsenal team.

Manchester United did play five warm up matches (not counting the post season tour) participating the Premier League Summer Series in the US, facing Leeds (0-0), West Ham (2-1), Bournemouth (4-1) and Everton (2-2). They also hosted Serie A side Fiorentina at Old Trafford on Saturday drawing 1-1.

Style Comparison

These measures look to measure a team’s “style” or play and compare to the rest of the Premier League

Manchester United have been a bit of a mixed style team. They are not a super possession heavy team (6th in the PL) but will have matches where it can drop below 50%. Even in the preseason it was about even between things being 50/50 and them having more like 60-65% of the ball. Against Arsenal, even at home, I’d imagine that this is a match where it will come down more 50/50 and potentially shifting towards Arsenal.

One thing that Amorin has tried to get into the team is more effective pressing and the ability to get more quick transitions. Last season Manchester United to push up high trying to win the ball high, they just struggled mightily when teams were able to beat their press.

With the makeup of the midfield that could be something we see again if they spend a lot of time trying to get all of Matheus Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, and Kobbie Mainoo on the pitch in the same midfield.

In preseason they have not generally gone that far and have often included one of Casemiro or Manuel Ugarte, sacrificing passing for a bit more shielding.

Looking at last season’s numbers are probably not overly helpful given that they have done a full overhaul of the attack this summer, but this is how they stacked up.

Overall, it’s a pretty mediocre viewing, and they don’t really crack the top tier in any real category here.

Defensively they were not quite as bad. They gave up quite a few big chances and that was a major issue but they did have solid numbers at limiting opposition shots, which was a major weakness the season previous.

Simulated Odds

My model is fairly high on Manchester United (having big wages and using that as a regression value will explain that) but the betting odds seem to like them even more. This could be a situation where a big team, with a big fan base just pushes the odds higher than they would be otherwise but overall, they really seem to like how the team has evolved this summer.

That shows up in the odds here as well where the betting odds have Arsenal under 50% to win at 45%, this is one of the biggest deviations from my own odds that I have seen.

Going to Old Trafford is also just something that Arsenal have been very good at even with United at a low ebb. Under Mikel Arteta Arsenal have gone 2-1-2 with the goals 7 to 6 in favor of United.

I have no doubts that Arsenal are the better team here, there is just something about playing United and especially away that makes this a tougher task than it seems on paper. Arsenal owe United a nice pounding and hopefully they can provide that this weekend getting the 2025/26 off on the right foot.