Arsenal kickoff a tough stretch with three away matches will give them a good test. This run starts with a match away to Newcastle United.
The big memory of Newcastle away last season was controversy, but on top of that it was probably among the handful of matches that Arsenal really didn’t play all that well. I am sure Arsenal have had this one in the cross hairs as a match that they want to right and turn from a loss into a win.
Let’s dig into Newcastle.
Newcastle Performance
Newcastle two seasons ago surprised everyone with their performances, looking like they were ahead of schedule. They jumped from needing a good finish in 2021-22 to avoid relegation, to challenging at the top of the table and by the end of the year pushing Arsenal for who actually had the second best numbers in the league after Arsenal fell away.
I have not been impressed with the transfer business over the last couple of windows to where they haven’t added on the high-level talent, and it did seem that getting into the Champions League early stretched a team that wasn’t deep enough for that yet.
That leaves them in a spot where they are among the teams that are good but have flaws, and this season they have been hit with injuries that have exposed those flaws.
The rank disappointingly midtable in the metrics so far this season, ranking 10th in xG difference and 12th in goal difference. The attack, which was a strong point last season is bang on league average, with a defense looks off the best, on my team ratings for just this season, they are ranked 12th and I don’t think they can complain too much about that with how they have played.
So far this season they have played a schedule that that is pretty balanced, they haven’t played too many of the lower ranked teams at home yet but overall have a nice mix of the different levels of teams.
Newcastle Form
The magpies have 0 wins in their last 5 outings but have played fairly well over that stretch. They haven’t been great this season, but this stretch might capture some their better performances where maybe they should have hoped to come away with more than just 2 points (7.5 expected).
They won the xG battle in 4 of the 5 matches over this span, losing 2 of the matches where they created the better share of chances overall and only getting a draw in the other two.
The biggest what ifs of this stretch were the Manchester City match, where they were quite in the first half but came to life in the second, equalizing and then having a potential penalty waved away while still creating some openings that could have been a winner. Against Everton and Brighton they created more but just could not finish their chances and came away with just 1 point from two performances that they needed more from.
Against Chelsea it was more even, they didn’t have the volume of chances to overcome another day of bad finishing.
The finishing has been a problem for them all season, they are second to last in getting shots on target and have created just 11 post-shot xG from 14 regular expected goals this season and have had that turn into just 9 goals.
Style Comparison
Newcastle’s style isn’t a secret. They still prefer to have less of the ball, feeling comfortable to ceded territory and instead spring attacks quickly when they are available.
Newcastle are an aggressive team, but they will quickly retreat to their own half of the field if the initial pressure doesn’t result in a turnover. This puts them in a pretty unique spot as a team that has a low average height for defensive actions combined with pressing numbers that are quite high.
This season, it has not quite worked for them to generate the high quality chances that they have feasted on in the past. They still have a high share of their shots coming from these quick attacks but it is not resulting in the volume of shots that they have had in the last few seasons.
Across the board, their attacking numbers are mediocre to bad so far.
Overall, the shot numbers and overall attacking metrics are so meh. They do have one match with a red card here that gums up the numbers, but this is just not good enough for a team with their ambitions.
The defensive numbers are a bit better, they are tied with Arsenal for goals allowed but it is covering up giving up better chances that you would like to see.
Keys to the game
If I were looking at what Arsenal need to do in this match to tilt it in their favor I would focus on these items
PLAY THE TEAM NOT THE OCCASSION. Everything right now with Newcastle points to them not being on the same level as Arsenal. Even with Arsenal having questions with injuries, this is a matchup that I think heavily favors Arsenal. One of the minor criticisms that I can still have with Arsenal under Arteta, it does sometimes look from the outside is that the team can get too caught up in the occasion rather than just the team. Newcastle are a good team and shouldn’t be taken lightly, but they shouldn’t require Arsenal to radically alter how they approach this match. Emotions are going to be high and it will be important to not have that take the team off their game.
TAKE CARE OF THE BALL. Newcastle want to force mistakes and find ways that they can spring quick attacks. Arsenal must minimize these and not beat themselves by presenting them with these opportunities. Newcastle are at their best when they can disrupt the buildup of their opponents and when they can force them into errors. Arsenal have the ball security to where they should be able to withstand this, they will need to execute this.
THE DOOO ELLLS. Newcastle get away with a lot from the referees where they are given a lot of latitude with the contact they can do. Arsenal are a team that is built to handle this and give it back to them. This goes hand in hand with the first two items, they need to control the emotion when the physicality to upped while also making sure that they take care of the ball and maybe even win it back a few times. Arteta loves the duels and this is a match where the one v one situations will be huge.
My model and the betting odds like Arsenal in this match and I am actually MORE confident that even away from home Arsenal should come away with a win if they can execute to the level that we expect from this team. This team when they have a chip on their shoulder, do tend to come in and play at a very high level.
It is the early match and one on the back of the League Cup but neither team has a massive advantage when it comes to rest with both teams playing the same day. I hope Arsenal can smash them here and get the tough run of matches going with a good start.