Mikel Arteta has to go for a win Wednesday

Arsenal are exhausted, but coming up short at Girona could make it worse. Here's why.

Man, that video of Kai Havertz limping around for the last few seconds of the match at Wolves and then going down in a heap at the whistle was the ultimate microcosm of Arsenal’s season.

He’d just gritted out a hard-fought win at Wolves, Arsenal down to 10 due to a ludicrous red card. He’d missed a couple of chances that collectively probably should have resulted in at least one goal for him. But he played an energetic 90 minutes and collapsed once it was over.

That’s the image we’re left with from the weekend, and yet here I am to tell you something that might sound stupid or irresponsible: Injuries aside, Mikel Arteta needs to send out his strongest team at Girona on Wednesday.

As things stand right now, Arsenal are locks-but-not-quite-locks to get into the final 16 of the Champions League. At least one club with 16 points — Arsenal’s current total — will make it into the top 8, and the Gunners are best-positioned among those with 16 due to their goal difference. Without actually taking the time to do the math here, it would take an Arsenal loss paired with multiple of Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa and others winning by “historic blowout” margins to bump them out of the top 8.

So, it’s settled then: Dead rubber, throw in the kids!

Well, not quite.

As things stand, Arsenal are in third position and have a genuine (if maybe a *bit* long) chance at the second seed. This wouldn’t have really mattered in past Champions Leagues, but this year it does. The difference between being the third or fourth seed, where you wouldn’t face the top side in your side of the bracket, or being 5-8 where you could face them round in the round of eight, is notable. But it’s also notable for the clubs against whom you could be drawn in the round of 16.

I went ahead and input results for Wednesday, siding with betting favorites. Arsenal would win at Girona in that case and end up with the third seed. With the other results going chalk, here’s how the draw looks:

That doesn’t mean Arsenal face Inter: in fact, they couldn’t face them until the final, as they’ll be on the opposite side of the bracket. Rather, one of Brest or Celtic would be drawn against one of Atalanta or Juventus, winner faces Arsenal. That’s not “easy,” per se, but Champions League knockouts aren’t easy. This is better than what could be, though.

With all results the same except for Arsenal-Girona, which I’ve changed to a draw, look how those opponents have changed! Suddenly there’s a 75% chance you get one of City, Bayern or Real Madrid in the next round. Previously, Arsenal couldn’t get any of them until the Round of 8.

For what it’s worth, Arsenal would have also stayed in this place with a loss, at least in the way I’ve drawn things up.

Naturally, nothing is a given heading into this last week, though, even a full-strength Arsenal winning at Girona, who haven’t been great in the Champions League but are still 8th in La Liga, which shows they’re at least decent.

Here are some results that could really change a lot this week:

Barcelona failing to beat Atalanta
Barca were awfully close to losing to Benfica this past week, and you could make an argument that they were saved by a dodgy penalty call. Meanwhile, Atalanta have been very good in the CL. If Gasperini’s side can steal a draw in Spain they would (all above results staying true) move into 10th rather than 13th, which would push Bayern into a potential pairing with Arsenal.

If Atalanta win in Spain, Arsenal could finish second in the league stage with a win. The major pro here is they’d avoid Liverpool until the final. As things stand, they’d also get a relatively friendly round of 16 draw, with potential opponents including Feyenoord, Sporting, Monaco or PSG.

PSV beating Liverpool
Arne Slot’s men have not locked up the top seed, but they are clinched as top-two. If Slot decides to rotate enough that they falter in Eindhoven and lose, that does mix things up quite a bit. In my sim, PSV move to 14th, Liverpool to 2nd. Arsenal, still third, have a different set of potential opponents.

A draw in Stuttgart
PSG-Stuttgart is a literal match for a spot in the next round, but both could get through with a draw. If that happens, and I wouldn’t rule it out, PSG would finish 23rd, bumping City into the 20 seed. Why does that matter? They could end up facing Arsenal in the round of 16 in that scenario.

Inter-Monaco
I expect Inter to treat their match with Monaco as a big deal, since a top-four slot is also on the line for them. Anything other than an Inter win makes things a little more interesting. A Monaco draw would (in my sim) bump Atletico Madrid to the fourth seed while not causing much change in 13, 14, 19 or 20. A Monaco win, though, again bumps Bayern into a potential pairing with Arsenal.

Lille-Feyenoord
Lille have been good in the league phase, but I wouldn’t say their beating Feyenoord (while favored) is a given. A draw here throws seeding into disarray again, putting these two clubs 13-14 and in line for a potential Arsenal matchup in the round of 16 (also creating a potential top-eight slot for Aston Villa, by the way). A win for either side doesn’t change things much for Arsenal.

Villa stumbling against Celtic
I’m not exactly expecting this, but Emery’s men have shown the aptitude to drop a stinker in the least convenient time (sounds familiar!) and Celtic have been tricky in the league stage. If Villa leave this matchup with a draw, they would be 13th and in line for a potential Arsenal matchup in the round of 16. Celtic winning would drop them to 14th, still in line for that potential Arsenal matchup.

Real Madrid failing to win in France
Brest were the surprise team out of the gates and thus have a good table position, but this is the one I expect the least. Still, it bears sharing that if Real Madrid draw with Brest (and the results stay the same as in my original sim), Real Madrid become a potential opponent for Arsenal, as 14th seed. A Real Madrid loss would put them 19th and in line for a potential Arsenal matchup again, just in a different way. So, I guess I’m saying, go Madrid?

The Lineup
Nobody feels particularly great about rolling out Arsenal starters yet again, and just four days before hosting City (which is three days before SJP), but the Champions League is quite possibly Arsenal’s best shot at major silverware left this season. That in mind, going strong may just have to be it. Ideally, Ødegaard and Merino can return, but I’m assuming not for the below.

My lineup: