Moving beyond Brentford

What to make of Arsenal's recent form?

Arsenal’s 1-1 home draw with Brentford this weekend felt, in pretty much every way, an opportunity missed. After all, it’s Brentford. Even in a season that’s among their best ever, they’re outside the European places.

Arsenal didn’t play well. The lost the xG battle despite taking 23 shots, most of which were outside the box. They moved the ball too slowly in attack, allowing Brentford’s packed defense to set and reset again, and the Bees remained staunch defending their own goal .And they really, really got worked in duels, with Brentford taking 58 of the 103 on offer (Brentford won 32/45 aerial duels).

Just about any time Arsenal’s attack goes stale, the winds of panic begin to blow through the fan base. After an October stretch that began with a hard-fought 1-0 win in Norway and ended with a 2-0 loss at PSV, some fans were ready to change everything. A few days later, Arsenal walloped Nottingham Forest 5-0, the first of what would become eight league games without a loss.

So, should Arsenal supporters be panicking now? Maybe a bit more than October, but I still think there’s plenty of reason to have some faith in the club. One reason why: The latest set of games each came at a really disadvantageous time.

Newcastle are defensively stout, no doubt about that. Everton had plenty of motivation and were at home under a new manager. But what of Brentford? Well, they’re arguably the most in-form side in the Premier League.

Since returning from the World Cup, the Bees have allowed the third-fewest non-penalty xG (tied for second fewest actual goals) in the league, beaten by only Manchester City and Newcastle. In that time, only Liverpool have generated more xG against Brentford than Arsenal did, and they still lost that game 3-1.

And let’s not forget Brentford’s final game before the break, a 2-1 win at the Etihad.

None of this is to say that Arsenal are blameless in their current run of form. No doubt the past two games have been largely uninspiring, although I would say their cup performance at City was great and should give fans some confidence moving into Wednesday.

The other bit of good news: Manchester City aren’t the side to pack their own box, so as long as Arsenal can impose its gameplan on the Cityzens and perform better in duels (particularly William Saliba, who had probably his worst game in red on Saturday), there’s plenty of reason to think they have the quality to get a result. Even a draw could loom large in the title race.

After that, the schedule moves quickly but includes Aston Villa and Leicester, two clubs in the bottom half defensively, and a chance for revenge against Everton. A result on Wednesday and two wins with some more inspiring attacking play, and we feel completely differently in early March.

Not to mention what else is coming back in March: Gabriel Jesus. Even if clubs have “figured out” how to stop Mikel Arteta’s attack, having a forward who’s better at positional rotation, can take on a man (or two) and pick out the perfect pass near the goal will be transformational all over again. In future games where the defense sits deep, Mikel Arteta should consider instructing his left back, be it Zinchenko or Tierney, to provide more width and allow Martinelli (or Trossard) to play more central. He could also consider using Fabio Vieira or Trossard at Xhaka’s left 8 spot at times when goals are hard to come by and opponents aren’t attempting to control possession.

One thing Arsenal could definitely drill on in upcoming trainings is decisiveness. Arteta needs to emphasize movement and quick decision-making that will keep defenders guessing where their man will be next, and give them no time to prepare for the coming pass. We’ve seen that in more than a dozen games already this season, and I think we’ll see it again.

Until then, Arsenal remain three points up, with a game played less. Everything could look completely different by the end of Wednesday.

Lots of season left to go.