Nketiah or Balogun, Who to keep? Plus more mailbag

Answering your questions

I ran into a bit of writer’s block where several of the things I started didn’t really spark joy to lead me to finish them so instead I am going to do a mailbag because readers, you guys are awesome and always have questions that spark joy.

AceAFC♠️ @Gorrdegadega

@scottjwillis Based on your analysis would it be better to sell Nketiah and keep Balogun or vice versa? Based on current ability and potential

This is a great question right off the bat. I will do some analysis and thoughts here but I can pretty much guarantee that this will not be the final word on this topic.

So let’s start with the stats.

The two are very close statistically. Eddie Nketiah has averaged a few more shots but with lower quality. Folarian Balogun has been a better finisher and a bit more creative.

Overall the shot charts for both look exactly like you want from a striker, good volume, concentrated central, with lots of big dots for high-quality chances.

It is a month old now but I still think this bit of stat scouting on Balogun is worth reading.

Folarin Balogun flourishes in Ligue 1

It is striking that both seem to have very similar profiles to each other this season. I think that is a plus for Balogun who has youth on his side, but also I think shows perhaps Neketiah’s current low stock price might be down to cold finishing run.

I think I land on sell neither right now. Nketiah is much more of a sure thing, who also looks comfortable as the backup, so I am okay with that as the going forward plan for next year if it needs to be.

I would look to bring Balogun back into the team for pre-season and really get the coaches a close view on him and how he might work within Mikel Arteta’s system. I think he has a very high ceiling as a player and I wouldn’t want to move on quickly from that type of player. My first choice would be for him to look at one more step loan up the ladder, with the idea that this is the path back to Arsenal and playing time is more important than riding the bench.

The complicating factor is the contract situation, he will be at two years remaining so it would probably be the moment for the player to make a call on what he wants. If he wants to extend then I would go with the first choice of a loan and keep Nketiah, if he doesn’t then it would mean trying to sell him. I think I would look at a minimum of 25-30 million from the continent (with some good sell-on type protection) and 40-50 from within the Premier League as my price targets for him.

More to come as this develops.

Yo-Yo Ma So Fat @yoyomasofat

@scottjwillis How do other countries' government regulate sports? In the States, baseball has an anti-trust exemption, and I *think* most teams operate legally as non-profits. But there's no active regulation.

An interesting question!

I am most familiar with US sports so that will be my primary angle here. I am also not a lawyer or anything but I am a nerd who is interested in this kind of thing.

In the US there isn’t a ton of direct regulation of sports by the government. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t regulation because there is a ton, it is just done by the leagues themselves. The rules around team building are significantly more difficult on average than anything I have seen reported around soccer.

Baseball has it’s own sort of special carve outs (which I really do not like) that give them extra exemptions from standard labor rules but there is a strong players union there that gives players some voice in how things are run.

The biggest difference is that most US sports are capped at the amount of money that can go to players. It is generally in the range of 45-55% of revenues, this lowers the money that goes to players but also is a trade-off for more equal revenue sharing (the amount of equal carries) and leagues that do have more uncertainty about who will be good.

As for the non-profit part, I believe only the Green Bay Packers (of the NFL) are. They are a pretty special case of being publicly owned vs everything else owned by individuals, partnerships or larger corporations, but very much with the idea of making a profit, either every year or through asset appreciation.

Cornballer @Cornballer

@scottjwillis To the eye test, Arsenal seem to be shooting from further out recently as they are playing from losing positions and facing deeper blocks. Is this quantifiable in any way through average shot position, xG per shot, etc… ?

Arsenal’s average shot distance is increasing slightly as the season goes on.

As for the game state question, that is also a yes! There is a pretty strong correlation with game state and shot quality, Arsenal have not escaped that this season.

With the game tied Arsenal have averaged shots from 15.9 yards with an average xG of 0.128. When they are down a goal that has dropped to 17.2 yards with an average xG of 0.108. When Arsenal are ahead by a goal, the numbers are 16.4 yards, with an average xG of 0.133.

An interesting thing is that Arsenal seem to have a pretty steady shot distance between even and ahead in 16 yards average but the average xG does continue to increase going from 12, to 13, to 15 as they get further ahead. When down (this doesn’t happen often still with Arsenal having spent just 244 minutes losing, and just 23 minutes losing by more than one goal), the opposite is true with more long shots and a lower xG per shot.

Lighting Round Questions

Kena🇪🇹🇨🇦 @HabtamuKena

@scottjwillis Would keeping Nuno make sense ? If we do sell KT

No I don’t think so. Nuno Tavares is a talented player but I don’t think he fits, and he might actually be a wide midfielder or attacking mid rather than a fullback.

ter @fazemigos

@scottjwillis Thoughts/stats on fixture congestion causing a dip in form? Or how significant it affects historically

Looking at this historically would be interesting. I don’t know how big the congestion stuff matters for big teams. When England has its festive fixtures that seems to be a really big tax on smaller teams where the drop-off from first choice to backup is bigger.

Neb @Neb670

@scottjwillis Does the contract offered to Saka actually provide monetary value? Points to cost wise

This would be a great research paper, trying to value players in terms of points very hard. I know some have tried and you can see at a places like macro-football.com and smarterscout but I still think the defense part makes it a very hard problem with just event data. I think that Saka might be under paid (I think a lot of stars are) compared to his impact.

Paul Elliott Johnson @RhetoricPJ

@scottjwillis what would saka and martinellis wages be if they hit the open market today for a contract

Hard to know for certain but I think generally players getting extensions get close to the market value, especially at the start of a deal. It is possible they left money on the table in pure maximizing but probably not too much given they both got near the end of their contracts.

! @jqtrde

@scottjwillis if you had to rename Arsenal Football Club, what would you call it?

I am sure a marketing person would say get LONDON in there more prominently. I do like that Arsenal have something less tied to a place and is just a cool ass cannon. I like the current name and wouldn’t really mess with it, maybe the badge would be where you get the London featured.

And the final questions (thank you all who asked)

Clare Ellison @hairbearclare

@scottjwillis How does our run in compare to City and United…on paper. We’re away to Liverpool, City and Newcastle so I worry 😬

Party Marti’s #1 Fan @pgrove1

@scottjwillis Strength of schedule remaining ?

For the strength of schedule, have the second easist run in to end the season. It is also not that big of a spread from top to bottom here.

As for comparison against our rivals. Arsenal have 3 matches against teams with ratings greater than 110% (adjusted for home-field advantage) of the League average (Liverpool, Manchester City, and Newcastle) with 7 matches against teams in the 90-110% range and 5 matches against the lowest-rated teams.

Manchester City has 3 against the top, 8 against the middle and 3 against the bottom.

Manchester United has 4 against the top, 5 against the middle and 5 against the bottom.

So basically it is all pretty close on the schedule strength going forward (with all the teams still looking at European fixtures as well).

Week 25 Odds

Have a good weekend everyone. Yee haw.