Noni Madueke: The Debrief

Arsenal's first attacking signing of the summer is a versatile attacker from a Premier League rival

It is probably fair and perhaps putting things lightly that this transfer has dived opinions among Arsenal fans.

Now that he is an Arsenal player, it does look like most fans are getting behind him now that he has put on the shirt and are looking at what he could add to this Arsenal squad. I hope that my optimism on this move can also help people that still hold some skepticism but have an open mind about him.

If you want or haven’t seen the super deep dive on him I would suggest reading that one as a starting point on the player.

Here in the new player debrief you’ll still get lots of details but it will be a bit more rapid fire context to understand them.

Noni Madueke: The Debrief

Right off the bat, it is pretty clear that this is a player where there is a major divergence from fan opinion and the stats on the player. This will come up a lot as we continue, Madueke has consistently been a player that has done lots of the very valuable actions on the pitch, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have weaknesses or won’t be frustrating but it does point to him being a player that will bring a lot to the table even if in doing so he knocks a few things off.

Attacking and Creative Metrics:

0.30 - Non-Penalty Goals, percentile 80.4

0.50 - Non-Penalty xG, percentile 97.2

2.96 - Open Play Shots, percentile 97.6

0.33 - Shots per touch within 25 yards of goal, percentile 35.4

0.13 - xG Per Shot, percentile 83.7

0.77 - Shots in Prime Locations (within 12 yards of goal), percentile 91.4

-0.063 - Post Shot xG Added (The difference in xG of a shot and the estimated finishing quality Post Shot xG), percentile 8.5

38.8% - On Target Percentage, percentile 64.1

22.9% - Shot Usage (the percentage of total shots while playing that the player attempted), percentile 91.9

24.8% - xG Usage (the percentage of total xG while playing that the player took the shot from), percentile 87.3

Madueke’s shooting and especially his ability to generate his own shot in good locations is one of the major selling points for Arsenal in my opinion.

Arsenal were only 5th last season in shots taken and that’s a tough spot to win the title from. We know the reasons why that slipped last season and this is something that would potentially give some insurance and an exciting option for the right situations to generate attack when other tactics have failed.

0.13 - Assists, percentile 50.7

0.19 - Open Play xA, percentile 82.8

1.33 - Open Play Key Passes, percentile 77.2

0.47 - Shot Creating Action xG Assisted, percentile 85.7

12.8% - Key Pass Usage (the percentage of key passes while playing that the player assisted), percentile 49.7

3.6 - Passes Completed with 25 yards of goal, percentile 83.6

1.67 - Passes Completed into the box, percentile 67.1

2.66 - Passes Completed Pass inside the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile 82.1

0.43 - Crosses Completed within 25 yards of Goal, percentile 49.6

2.74 - Crosses Attempted, percentile 58.1

18.8% - Cross Completion Percentage, percentile 33.7

Creatively Madueke is above average, but this is an area where he can improve. Some of this is that he does go looking for his own shot (see above he does do that quite successfully) but it is also something that can bleed into when that isn’t there and his final pass looks like it is a bit of a panic or not thought out (this shows up in the crossing numbers and his in the box passing most). He is the type of creative player that will create from his chaos and that is another attribute that this Arsenal squad is lacking.

Passing and Ball Progression Metrics:

100.4% - Pass Efficiency (actual passing completion divided by the expected completion percentage), percentile 65.7

5.9% - Passing Usage (the percentage of total passes while playing that the player attempted), percentile 16.8

28.3 - Pass Attempts, percentile 27.5

77.5% - Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 67.2

3.9% - Middle 3rd Passing Usage, percentile 6.3

15.6% - Attacking 3rd Passing Usage, percentile 56.5

0.73 - Completed Final Third Entries, percentile 6.5

9.35 - Attacking 3rd Pass Attempts, percentile 14.5

87.6% - Attacking 3rd Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 78.0

0.96 - xG Chain (total xG involved in), percentile 94.0

0.46 - xG Buildup (total xG involved in, excluding the shot and key pass), percentile 88.3

23.3% - xG Buildup Usage (the percentage of total xG while on the field that he participated in the buildup to), percentile 69.4

1.97 - Long Pass Attempts, percentile 27.6

45.7% - Long Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 31.0

3.30 - Progressive Passes Completed, percentile 62.1

2.11 - Fields Gained (progressive yards through passing and carrying dived by the length of the field), percentile 81.8

2.21 - Attacking 3rd Fields Gained, percentile 98.1

-0.14 - Middle 3rd Fields Gained (or actually lost here), percentile 10.8

Madueke is not a high usage player really anywhere on the pitch. He is much more akin to the Gabriel Martinelli (not a perfect comp) in the Chelsea team where his job is less focused on buildup.

This is pretty clear in many of the passing numbers here. There isn’t anything that I would call a major red flag here. He is a capable passer and can do more if he was needed to (the Dutch footballing education is helpful here) he is just more valuable to be used as a final third threat.

Carrying, Dribbles, and Receiving Metrics

9.65 - Progressive Carries, percentile 96.3

2.19 - Final Third Entry Carry, percentile 68.6

3.43 - Carries into the box, percentile 99.9

4.33 - Dribbles, Attempted, percentile 82.3

1.80 - Dribbles, Completed, percentile 74.6

1.07 - Dispossessed, percentile 34.5

1.08 - Fouls Suffered, percentile 33.5

This is the other big strength of Madueke.

He is a physical mismatch for a lot of full backs with his combination of strength, size and speed. He really uses this well to push defenders back at the threat of his ability to take it past them. He is comfortable cutting in (loves to hunt that shot remember) and taking the ball the long way around them on the outside and saying I can still beat you (which he does quite often).

One of the big pluses you’ll see from watching him is the ability to receive wide at the touchline and turn that into him being in or around the box against a defense that is scrambling. Again, this is another type of player that Arsenal lacked to be able to call on, especially from the bench last season.

8.19 - Touches in the box, percentile 98.7

10.55 - Deep Touches (within 25 yards of goal), percentile 98.2

31.77 - Passes Received, percentile 53.6

5.10 - Progressive Passes Received, percentile 56.8

9.99 - Final Third Entry Passes Received, percentile 97.7

2.02 - Penalty Area Passes Received, percentile 79.8

0.67 - Crosses Received, percentile 78.7

2.23 - Unsuccessful Touches (miscontrolling a pass or a bad touch), percentile 43.7

The receiving numbers paint the picture of a lot of what we have seen above. Not a ton of involvement in the middle third, but on a per touch basis shows up as a real outlet for progressive actions. He uses his threat of running in behind well to open up space for himself and he will take advantage of a high line to get in behind, especially on the diagonal run with ball between the full back and center back.

Ball Winning Metrics

3.83 - Possession Adjusted (padj) Defensive Duels, percentile 50.8

2.59 - Padj Tackles Attempted, percentile 52.9

1.41 - Padj Successful Tackles, percentile 45.3

36.8% - Tackle % (Successful Tackles/ Tackles + Fouls Committed), percentile 41.3

45.7% - Drib Past %, percentile 32.6

0.62 - Padj Clearances, percentile 39.6

1.25 - Padj Fouls Committed, percentile 47.3

1.47 - Padj Interceptions, percentile 40.8

4.79 - Padj Ball Recoveries, percentile 44.9

Madueke is not a ball winning monster but he does seem to put in the work here. When you watch him, he can be quite effective at using his size to make beating him or passing around him tough. He is also quite adept at poking the ball away and using that as a chance to start his own transition.

The pressing numbers for him compare favorably to Arsenal’s current forwards (data via StatsBomb):

• Madueke - 17.9, 66th percentile

• Bukayo Saka - 16.8, 58th percentile

• Gabriel Martinelli - 17.2, 61st percentile

• Martin Odegaard - 23.0, 88th percentile

• Leandro Trossard - 23.1, 89th percentile

He is an attacking player, so this is less of a focus but if he knows what is required at Arsenal and is bought in, he should be more than capable of doing what is required.

Final thoughts

I remain very excited about this move. Arsenal have added a supremely talented young wide attacker. He has attributes and strengths that lineup really well to fill holes in the squad and continue to give Mikel Areta more options to handle different opponents, game states, and the grueling schedule ahead.

There is a risk here on the player (a bit lessened buying in the PL but injury history/betting on upside is always there) and a question of the allocation of funds if this looks like at the end of the window something that limited other moves Arsenal could have done that will change the perception of this move.

The bear case for this move almost certainly tied to something injury related that just limits how much he can be on the pitch. I have pretty high confidence that this won’t be a talent issue but it is possible that for any number of reasons the fit and adaption just doesn’t work out.

The median case here for this move is that he is one of the best rotation players in the League. If he only repeats what he has done at Chelsea that is a very productive player and he offers some very important attributes that can be very impactful for this Arsenal team. This is probably a 1,400 to 1,800 minutes type role for him and it is probably primarily off of the right picking up occasional starts and lots of substitution appearances.

The bull case has a couple of different paths I can imagine. The first is that he really does turn some of his finishing problems around and he is a player that can provide elite wing goal scoring numbers. This pushes Saka somewhere else (maybe more central) or Madueke to be looking for a new team and Arsenal have a potential big sale on their hands. I think there is also a less likely part of the bull case where he is converted to a left-footed left winger who can add attacking numbers as if he were an inverted winger ala Raphinha or Leroy Sane.

I hope he has the motivation to prove the haters wrong and will be able to provide an impact to great things at Arsenal.

Welcome, Noni.