North London Derby Preview

A look ahead for the pivotal match at the toilet bowl

When you start looking at things over on the other side of North London, one of the first things that smacks you in the face is how ordinary this team looks statistically. They are in fifth place but look nothing like a “normal” team that is in contention for the Champions League spots.

The big reason for that is that half of the so called “big 6/7” have not played especially well this season. Manchester United, Tottenham, and Liverpool have all been a bit fragile and hit-and-miss this year.

Even within this, Tottenham seems different. Among the big teams only Newcastle has a lower average possession than Spurs 51.7%. They have the fewest attacking third touches with just 148 per match (almost 50 fewer than Arsenal). Even starker they allow a ton of possession in their defensive third, with 174 touches per match by the opponent in the attacking third (yes they have a negative attacking third differential).

The style that Antonio Conte has them playing feels incredibly fragile and is asking for them to get footballed. They have less of the dangerous possession, they have less of the total shots, they play a pretty dreadful style.

They do limit dangerous shots (not a surprise when they often have 9 to 10 men behind the ball) but still overall have struggled to turn this into big xG advantages in their matches. This season they have beaten their opponents by 1 or more xG just in 6 of their 18 matches, that’s not a receipt for long-term points accumulation.

To highlight the difference Arsenal have beaten their opponents by 1 or more xG in 11 of their 18 matches this season.

The trend for Tottenham is also moving in the wrong direction. Last year with the introduction of Conte, they really did turn thing around playing as a team that was deserving of finishing in the top four, this year they have lost that dropping to a team that really looks like most seasons they would be fighting for a Europa League spot.

Conte is a good coach, but he looks like he is on the cusp of a full meltdown with this team, really talking down about their talent and just the overall “bigness” of the team. I am not sure how this ends but it does seem at this point that he is out of ideas on how to get this team back on the right track for anything more ambitious than 4th.

Comparing the teams

This matches my eye. Arsenal in attack have been a much better team. Spurs rely more heavily on creating from transition, and when in possession are much more cross heavy as their way of getting the ball into the box.

The defensive story is similar. Tottenham give up a ton of shots (but with very low average quality) leading to an okay defense. They aren’t especially active at looking to win the ball back.

Overall this looks like a pretty one-sided matchup with Arsenal as the second best team in the League (3rd best attack, 2 best defense) going up against the sixth best team in the League (5th best attach, 5th best defense).

How do they keep getting away with this?

Basically, because they have Harry Kane.

I am not sure where they would be without his 15 goals this season. He is the sun that the team revolves around and basically is dragging a team that really dosen’t look all that talented into a decent place on the table.

Son Heung-Min this season has looked like a shell of his former self. Outside of a half-hour hat trick against Leicester he has been a very ineffective player, with just one additional goal and two assists.

Son was never really a player that contributed a ton of value outside of the final third but that is looking like he is really hurting the team with his end product drying up. He is still a key outlet for their transition game but his ability to hurt teams from those spots is not nearly the same.

Simulated Odds and Prediction

Arsenal are the favorites here but it is still pretty close.

I sort of dread the thought of this match. Spurs are going to sit back and invite Arsenal to come on to them. It will probably look a lot like the final 70 minutes of the Newcastle match if Conte has his way. Hopefully, Arsenal can get an early lead (not uncommon as Spurs have spent the 5th most minutes losing) and force them to have to attack rather than look to exploit space on the counter.

I think Arsenal DO get the early going in the opening 30 minutes this time and things do go their way. With a 2-1 win (Kane 85’ Pen) to keep their spot at the top of the table.