Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal: The Debrief
Arsenal keep the winning run going avoiding a dangerous trap game
It seemed like a forever wait between the last time we saw Arsenal and the game against Nottingham Forest. It was even harder with the game before it also with a big break in between.
These breaks get people stewing on weird topics and have lots of “interesting” narratives pop up and dominate the discussion. Some of it is good, most of it is not, but it is hard to find good things to write and talk about during that time.
Thankfully this is one of the last big breaks for a while (outside of the forced international break) and we will have lots of soccer to talk about. Let’s start with the win we saw Tuesday.
Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal: The Graphics
Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal: The Debrief
19 - Shots for Arsenal, the 6th time this season that Arsenal have taken at least that many shots
1.3 - Expected goals for Arsenal
0.07 - xG per shot for Arsenal, 5th lowest average shot quality this season
1 - Big Chance for Arsenal in this match (Jesus 57’)
391 - Final third touches for Arsenal, 2nd most this season
37 - Box Entries for Arsenal, 3rd most this season. 57 total touches in the box for Arsenal, 2nd most this season.
9 - Shots allowed by Arsenal
4 - Shots allowed before the score became 2-0
0.8 - Expected goals allowed
0.16 - Expected goals allowed before the score became 2-0
This match played out like so many matches this season; Arsenal playing patient, probing soccer against a low block. Arsenal have seen a lot of low blocks this season, and like last year have faced the lowest average of defensive actions against them.
Even still within that, this was an outlier.
There were several times where all but David Raya were in the Forest half, or even in the final third. This was one where there wasn’t a lot of resistance in the middle of the field. Arsenal had 89% passing in buildup areas and completed 79 final third-entry passes in this match.
What this meant is that this match was played almost entirely inside of the Nottingham Forest half, especially outside of the time after Arsenal’s second.
This plus the first goal not coming until midway through the second half meant that many of the previous frustrations returned.
Arsenal played a slow and deliberate game.
1.88 - Arsenal’s progressive speed toward goal in yards per second of possession for this match, this is perfectly average (1.88 on the season, ranking 10th fastest) but a departure from last match’s 2.01.
23 - Passes per shot attempt, the 2nd highest ratio this season
13.8 - Final third passes per shot attempt, the highest this season.
With the slow speed and deep block, completing penetrative passes became very hard. Arsenal played 100 pass attempts from open play into the area within 25 yards of goal, completing just 52 of them.
When they did get into this area, which they did a good amount given all the final third possession they had (83 touches in this area), Arsenal still struggled to turn it into shots.
0.23 - Shots per deep touch, the 2nd lowest ratio this season
0.016 - xG per deep touch, the 3rd lowest ratio this season
Playing against a low block is hard, that is why teams do it. It is still concerning that many of the nearly moments for Arsenal still looked just off. If some of the passes come off, if some of the touches are better, there were chances there to take. If that happens maybe some of the worry is pushed into the background a little more but it is instead still just a bit too close to the forefront for my liking.
Regardless, three points. Picking up three points that the team dropped last year. No obvious new injuries and an extra day to prepare for Liverpool.
Zinchenko pulling strings
111 - Pass Attempts, led all players.
91.9% - Pass completion percentage on 110.9% Pass Efficiency (actual compared to expected pass completion)
13 - Final 3rd Entry Passes completed
11 - Progressive Passes (18 on the less strict FBRef definition), led all players
6 - Deep Completions (not Cross)
4 - Key Passes, tied for mos
0.14 - xA
1 - Dribble Completed
8 - Progressive Carries
13 - Final Third Entry Pass Received
0.57 - xG Buildup
1 - Time Dispossessed
1 - Tackle, 50% Tackle %
0 - Fouls
5 - Ball Recoveries
2 - Clearances
1 - Aerial Duel Won (of 4)
8.39 - Fields Gained
This was a pretty typical Zinchenko game.
He was amazing on the ball. He was the engine in midfield dictating play and often the one breaking the lines of defense for us to be frustrated that nothing actually came from that spark of magic he provided.
It also saw him make an error, on the goal that Forest did score we saw them take advantage of his tendency to cheat on a diagonal. He didn’t hold the line and then didn’t challenge as the ball came in. It might have just been a footnote for the film review but it was compounded by Saliba also making a mistake.
It is the yin and yang of Zinchenko, the play without him (and without someone brought in to replace it) can be dreadful and while his overall defending is not nearly as bad as his reputation, he can still be a liability to be exploited or switch off at the end of games.
Smith Rowe Makes his return to the starting lineup
45 - Pass Attempts
93.3% - Pass%
108.2% - Pass Efficiency
2 - Final 3rd Entry Passes
4 - Progressive Passes
5 - Deep Completions (not Cross)
1 - Key Passes
0.07 - xA
1 - Shots
0.07 - xG
5 - Progressive Carries
5 - Progressive Passes Received
4 - Deep Touches
1 - Tackle
2 - Ball Recoveries
This wasn’t a performance that is going to produce an amazing sizzle reel but it was a positive performance from a player making his first league start in 3 months and just his second in 18 months. I fully agree with Arteta here:
I thought he was really good. I think he looked exactly the same as he looks in training and every time we’ve put him in. He fully deserves his chance. He’s really put his head down, his attitude has been really good. He’s a tremendous player and you see the way he moves. It’s just a joy to watch him.
He didn’t have the IMPACT but he did show many of his classic attributes that should be valuable to this team. He had clean (if safe) passing, excellent driving on the ball, matched with good off-the-ball runs (just needs a few more people looking for them), and the conviction to try a shot or hard pass when in the position. He showed some vulnerability out of possession but mostly looked switched on and helped keep Nottingham Forest pinned in their half.
It is good to have him back and with it looking like there are no players coming in with the transfer window closing, it will be important to get value from this part of the squad.