Arsenal are back in the Premier League facing a tricky trip to the City Ground to face Nottingham Forest.
Arsenal have won just once since 2022 away in this fixture and have failed to score in 4 of the 5 meetings over that span. Last season, this fixture was one of the more frustrating matches of the season and fell in the middle of what was probably the nadir of last season.
This will present Arsenal the chance to pick up points on last season’s results and right a bit of that wrong. Arsenal created the chances to win, but ended up on the wrong side of a footballing.
That match seemed to come at the wrong time for Arsenal, and now maybe the turntable will have flipped and Arsenal will have caught Forest while they are still getting used to things under new manager Oliver Glasner.
The tale of the tape shows that things favor Arsenal. Hopefully, that plays out on the pitch as well.
Let’s get into what the stats say on Arsenal’s next opponent.
Nottingham Forest Performance
Forest sit in the upper portion of the weighted xG table, with the 6th best tally.
The surprising thing about this is that they are actually sitting in 3rd for the expected goal difference, and have been dragged down significantly by the actual goals scored. Looking at the longer term, on the rolling xG they are starting to edge back towards the positives here after a rough end of the season under Vítor Pereira.
One thing that jumps out on that chart, is just how trigger happy they are firing a coach. After a slow start on the actual results, you wonder if the seat under Glasner is getting a bit warm.
The next few fixtures for them are going to potentially be a real test with a couple tough away matches and then Manchester City before the next international break.
Overall, it’s been a disappointing start and that is probably more bad luck than bad play. Looking at what they did last season and they are 5 points off the pace, even though the underlying numbers are actually positive.
This puts them probably just on the edge of staying up but they can’t afford to drop off too much more without getting dragged into the relegation race.
Nottingham Forest Form
