Don't know if you have data for this, but would love to know how much xG Jesus generates for himself each game. Like if he gets the ball on the edge of the box he could shoot for a really low xG chance, but he often takes it past 2 or 3 defenders and seems to manufacture a higher xG chance.
Also think this could contribute to his apparent underperformance on xG. He seems to manufacture himself decent chances but perhaps not be in the optimal situation to take the chance - like he's a bit off balance, or has to toe poke, or he's taking the shot on his wrong foot, which I think would penalise him from an xG perspective.
Given how good some of the top 7 teams look, do you foresee a scenario where 75 - 80 points will become the minimum required for a top 4 spot? Will the bar for top 4 get higher as the top 7 get better?
Is there anything interesting that can be gleaned from radar comparisons or similarity scores looking at this season and last season? Aside from the obvious, have any players’ roles changed significantly?
I'm curious why the 538 model was so pessimistic on Arsenal at the beginning of the season. We ended 2021-22 with 69pts (albeit 64.7xpts per understat), and an SPI of 80.2. We began this season on 538 though w an SPI of 78.5, xpts of 61 and xgdiff of +12. What in the 538 model had us doing so much worse than last year's 69pts or even understat's 65 xpts? And how did we start w lower SPI as we really didn't lose much but brought in some valuable players while we have more other players entering their prime than leaving? I know 538 does something to account for player value...not sure if it looks at age progression of important players. Seems like a model input that wouldn't be too difficult to add to improve the R2!
Don't know if you have data for this, but would love to know how much xG Jesus generates for himself each game. Like if he gets the ball on the edge of the box he could shoot for a really low xG chance, but he often takes it past 2 or 3 defenders and seems to manufacture a higher xG chance.
Also think this could contribute to his apparent underperformance on xG. He seems to manufacture himself decent chances but perhaps not be in the optimal situation to take the chance - like he's a bit off balance, or has to toe poke, or he's taking the shot on his wrong foot, which I think would penalise him from an xG perspective.
Given how good some of the top 7 teams look, do you foresee a scenario where 75 - 80 points will become the minimum required for a top 4 spot? Will the bar for top 4 get higher as the top 7 get better?
Is there anything interesting that can be gleaned from radar comparisons or similarity scores looking at this season and last season? Aside from the obvious, have any players’ roles changed significantly?
I'm curious why the 538 model was so pessimistic on Arsenal at the beginning of the season. We ended 2021-22 with 69pts (albeit 64.7xpts per understat), and an SPI of 80.2. We began this season on 538 though w an SPI of 78.5, xpts of 61 and xgdiff of +12. What in the 538 model had us doing so much worse than last year's 69pts or even understat's 65 xpts? And how did we start w lower SPI as we really didn't lose much but brought in some valuable players while we have more other players entering their prime than leaving? I know 538 does something to account for player value...not sure if it looks at age progression of important players. Seems like a model input that wouldn't be too difficult to add to improve the R2!